Devesh Kayal
8.5K posts
Devesh Kayal
@_devesh_
VP - Monarch AIF | Credit Card Enthusiast| Travel | Tech | Intellectually curious. Views are personal. Borrowed conviction can be dangerous
Mumbai Katılım Aralık 2008
486 Takip Edilen11.3K Takipçiler
Good thing is market still latching on to half #TACO despite IRAN denying!
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Every Institutional Investor goes through a learning curve in small caps. Invest in them -> Realise many not able to scale up -> Gets stuck in the downcycle due to illiquidity -> Performance takes a toll -> Redemption.
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Devesh Kayal retweetledi
When demand explodes, ask where supply is constrained the most?
The outsized ROIC / profit pools accrues to the scarcest pieces of the value chain.
Examples
Financialization → Wealth managers
AI capex → Chips, memory, power, cooling
Air travel → Airbus, engine makers
Intrinsic Compounding@soicfinance
Glenmark launches the generic version of SEMAGLUTIDE at barely Rs.325 per week treatment cost vs 2000 rs per week for the likes of Mounjaro or Ozempic. Pricing wars
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@milesmintIN But it refuses to crack despite large caps falling. Let's hope we get an opportunity.
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My current market strategy (2026):
•Smallcap/Nifty ≈ 2 → No mid & small cap allocation for now
•Will look at mid & small only if ratio falls below 1.6
•Nifty/Gold ≈ 0.15 → Equity attractive vs Gold
•Nifty near support → Plan to deploy from debt to large caps at support levels
•War → Volatility high → Keep cash in debt/arbitrage
•Gold not rising despite war → No aggressive gold buying
•Adding International funds to hedge depreciating rupee
My allocation:
•Large Cap 40–45%
•Midcap 0–5%
•Smallcap 0–5%
•International Equity 10%
•Gold 10–15%
•Debt/Arbitrage 25–30%
Deployment plan (Debt → Large Cap):
22.5K → Deploy some
22K → Deploy more
21.5K → Deploy aggressively
21K → Lump sum
Not predicting market.
Just following ratios, allocation and levels.
milesmint@milesmintIN
Markets didn’t go anywhere in the last 2 years. Nifty is up ~5%. That’s basically flat. But ₹ fell ~11–12% in the same time. Now look at the real picture: Your actual return ≈ -7% You didn’t just underperform. You lost purchasing power. If your portfolio is 100% India, you are fully exposed to INR risk. Diversify globally. Not for returns — for protection.
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@AshishA16918999 @kanodiaankit12 Ground feedback on Piramal not good. Though I can be wrong in the short term with respect to stock price.
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@kanodiaankit12 Piramal finance is doing good . Already a doubler . Way to double again . Turnaround has been satisfactory .
Repco is a hidden gem . Can be 4-5x if they resume growth with controlled asset quality .
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You are right, Sir. I was wrong. Not just in the names you mentioned but many more. Sometimes you get it it right. Sometimes you don't. I have no shame in admitting that. That's part and parcel of being in the game.
Only God and liars are right all the time. :)
Chrandeep Singh@bythebookshot
While I agree that banks underperformed the index.. but what about microcaps or more importantly the “NBFC’s” that you reco’d be it - repco or - aavas or - piramal finance🙏🏻 Easy to nit pick data that favours you.. difficult to zero down on outperforming stocks😶
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Devesh Kayal retweetledi
Jan had peak flows in precious metals funds
Since then
Gold 🔻18%
Silver 🔻37%
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@sanjaylangval And People have the gall to compare bluejet to tsmc? 😭😭
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Content and storytelling >>> fundamentals / valuations is peak Substack!
If your investment thesis needs a Breaking Bad analogy, you’re not analysing the business, you’re writing fiction.
The "TSMC of Niche Pharma" is down 60% from the post and 33% since quoting Walter White.
Sanjay Kumar Elangovan@sanjaylangval
Timeless lessons lasted 2 days! 😂 "Nothing new. Same old market lessons - served again."
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Motilal Oswal on Home First. I agree risk reward seems to be favorable now
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@TheIdlThinker Not able to scale. I think people have misunderstood the example. So I think I should delete it
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Time to shift from Those who cannot scale to those who can. Or be clear in micro/small caps as a tactical trade on short term earnings boost for whatever reasons.
Abhishek Murarka 💹🐂@abhymurarka
I am not a mega bull (not expecting broad based returns), but I am seeing some very good investment opportunities now. My message at this time will be - this is a great time to clean your portfolio and start investing for 3-5 years in quality businesses. There is no rush.
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In a bit of a Dilemma with my Qatar Airways booking for EU trip in May?
Should I book an alternative? 🫤
Credit Card Reward Points / Airmiles isn't rrally an issue. Just that I was really looking to flying the Qatar Airways business class again.
#CCGeeks
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@Ravisutanjani @thetrickytrade Gold loan would be limited to 75% of gold value
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@thetrickytrade Someone I know is in a similar situation.
Probably the best option for him is to take a gold loan (against gold he bought using CC) and pay off all credit card bills immediately.
But never ever use debt for investing/trading.
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@_devesh_ Not saying Airlines should absorb it. It is the Govt should come to rescue.
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In good times: profits are privatized.
In tough times: costs are socialized.
Fuel prices rise → add a “fuel surcharge”.
Costs increase → raise fares.
No talk of absorbing pressure.
In India, the consumer is not the king.
The consumer is the shock absorber of the system.
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@FreeCash_Flow @tushar9590 I started personal investing from 2006 end. The kind of damage one saw even to blue chips that time was not seen ever thereafter
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@_devesh_ @tushar9590 Then u were also nt there before 2020 n surely nt there in 2008….2020 pain started in feb 18 n lasted till 24th march 2020….
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A new born baby is the most pampered one.
All the investors entering markets post March 2020 were those pampered ones, having myself started my market journey near that timeframe am no exception.
We have had great initial period of getting the most of it, and last 18 months we've transformed into thosr adults seeing the ups and downs of markets same as life, and what keeps us going in the end is that it's all gonna be alright eventually with our perseverance and the right state of mind.
Kudos to all of us for having gone through all these cycles in last 6 years, and we'll come out stronger than ever.
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@WizardsUnknown @Random_Gyan SBI MF in most of the cases (except Whirlpool) buying chunks from promoters have done well in general
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Doesn't look like a pure cash-out to me. Promoters have traded part ownership for institutional capital and liquidity while keeping controlling stake.
Before June and December stake sale, free float was absurdly low. Also, there is a merger planned for 2 wholly owned subsidiaries which mean bigger base. For it's size, this co was unusually illiquid.
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Promotors selling non stop. Never tracked this co. But I will be very very wary of co. where promoters sell nonstop,!
Beware investors of #Privi Speciality Chemicals
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@Random_Gyan @WizardsUnknown Page Industries promoter also sold quite a chunk consistently over some years yet stock is much higher than selling price.
P.S no idea on Privi.
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@WizardsUnknown While l don't know the specifics of this case. Basis my 2 decades in the markets , these are typically stories to exit.
The simplest way to create institutional capital is to do a QIP for them as and when capital is required.
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