@dhopkins1776 Currently very few classes attempt to measure growth in a sincere way (e.g., some kind of pre-class test with same difficulty level as final exam).
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Matthew Tyler
86 posts
Matthew Tyler
@_mdtyler
Assistant Professor @RicePoliSci.
Houston, TX Katılım Ocak 2016
100 Takip Edilen325 Takipçiler
Many agree that college grades are inflated, but there's less consensus about what grades are for in the first place. Should a high grade indicate achievement or growth during the class?
Which is closest to your view? At American universities, grades should...
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Matthew Tyler retweetledi
A new release of the ANES Cumulative Data File is now available for download. Over 200 variables have been updated to include data from the 2024 Time Series. Visit the study page to download data and documentation:
electionstudies.org/data-center/an…
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@electionstudies Amazing resource for everyone interested in elections or public opinion!
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Matthew Tyler retweetledi
ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...
The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.
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Matthew Tyler retweetledi
Sharing an event that may be of interest to this community!
Rare traits like support for violence, conspiracy beliefs, and unsafe health behaviors are really hard to measure! On Thursday November 13, learn from experts about the problem and solutions.
eventbrite.com/e/the-rare-tra…
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I think this basically correct, it vaguely pains me to say. Related: everyone loves "russet-coated captain" Cromwell, but forgets "chief of sinners" Cromwell, let alone Burford Mutiny Cromwell.
Capel Lofft@CapelLofft
People often ask 'would I have been a Cavalier or Roundhead', but the reality is that 99% of people in 2025 who think they would have been Roundheads would quickly reconsider their decision if they had a time machine & met the real Roundheads (mainly bonkers Puritan headbangers )
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@dhopkins1776 Instead of releasing grade scores we should release grade percentiles only. But probably every university has to do this for it to work.
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Any thoughts on good solutions? In theory, we could (and some universities already do):
1) Report the median grade in the class on transcripts
2) Cap the fraction of A-range grades in some or all classes
Dan Hopkins@dhopkins1776
2 related thoughts: 1) Media outlets like the NYT cover Harvard & the Ivies way more than their size, role in undergrad ed. dictates. 2) Grade inflation is straightforwardly suboptimal for everyone--it distorts signals about the quality of student work. Hope we rein it in.
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@jmwooldridge Unfortunately you'll also need to rewrite the slides of many statistics professors! (Please rewrite their discussion of normal errors and binary outcomes while you're at it.)
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It's 2025, and empirical researchers are still getting this sort of comment from a referee: "Please clarify how potential multicollinearity among explanatory variables was assessed and addressed in the analysis."
Maybe I should drop all references from my book.
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Matthew Tyler retweetledi
The full release of the ANES 2024 Time Series #Data is available for download. Read more here: electionstudies.org/anes-announcem…
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Just signed a lease for a really cool place in Bryan, so I figured it's time to make it online official: I'll be joining Texas A&M as an Assistant Professor of Political Science this fall! I'm so excited to gain some brilliant colleagues in a dynamic department.
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Republicans have become more likely to agree that “what it means to be a man has changed and I don’t think that has been good for society.”
About 75% of both GOP men and women say this.
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The share of Republican men and women who believe "women should return to their traditional gender roles" has increased by ~1.5X since 2022, with the position now achieving plurality status among GOP men.
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@JustinWolfers Perhaps actual consumer confidence depends on partisanship.
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Look at this graph and explain to me why you think I should read this as a measure of consumer confidence rather than partisanship.
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@NateSilver538 A priori adopting the same weighting method as other pollsters isn't herding 🐑, especially if the pollster has been doing it all season. It's a bad idea, but that's another story.
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Weighting on recalled vote share is a form of herding! It's a way to ensure your polls never get too far out of line with the consensus, or the previous election. But it'll make you miss actual movement in the electorate.
Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers
Now, @NateSilver538's key finding is that 80% of polls report a margin <2.5 points, which he says is way too few. Recall that 2-in-3 polls weight by recalled vote, and a 1-in-3 don't. Thus, I would (roughly!) expect: (2/3)x90% + (1/3)x52% = 77%. That's AWFULLY CLOSE to 80%.
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As we sift through our NORC survey, another interesting result is from Haley supporters. Small n, but...
In Feb./Mar., they were with Trump vs. Biden 44-29.
In Sept./Oct., they were with Trump vs. Harris 52-33.
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Matthew Tyler retweetledi
No defiers is a required assumption for identification of LATE in IV analysis. If that is false, the best thing you can do is to calculate bounds for the LATE.
But what happens if limit the maximum proportion of defiers. For instance, what if I don't believe is > 10%?
Dr Ellie Murray, ScD@EpiEllie
Niche nerdy tweet incoming: I’m not at all sure about this instrument. The “no defiers” assumption seems unlikely to hold — is there really no possible couple who would have divorced if the husband’s workplace stayed the same but not if it had hired more women?
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Matthew Tyler retweetledi
From our new issue: "Testing the Robustness of the ANES Feeling Thermometer Indicators of Affective Polarization" by Matthew Tyler (@_mdtyler) and Shanto Iyengar. #ASPRNewIssue
cambridge.org/core/journals/…
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