Merino (@_merin0o) - Twitter Profili | Zamantika Mersobahis Locabet

Merino@_merin0o·3 May

@katallassein Dándole la vuelta, el sesgo de una población de 8.000.000.000 de personas debería ser 50±0,00264% para que la prob. de que tu voto sirva de algo sea ≥1/8.000.000.000. Con cualquier sesgo fuera de ese rango, pulsar el botón rojo salva a la larga más vidas que el azul.

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Merino@_merin0o·3 May

@katallassein Si el análisis lo hiciéramos con una población ligeramente sesgada con una preferencia de, por ejemplo, 51-49, por no exagerar demasiado, la probabilidad de que tu voto cambie algo pasa de ~1/100000 a un divertido ~1/10^695153.

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Catalaxia@katallassein·2 May

Por una vez tocaré el tema, pero lo haré para pontificar así que ya podéis parar de debatir, porque yo tengo razón y vosotros solo la tendréis en la medida en la que estéis de acuerdo conmigo.

Crémieux@cremieuxrecueil

Red and blue button pushers: who's smarter? In a mostly-subscriber sample who took a brief verbal IQ test, the answer is... Blue pushers! If the whole population has an IQ of 100 with an SD of 15, their mean IQ would be 101.9, versus 97.0 for reds.

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Merino@_merin0o·25 Nis

@abstractorist @justalexoki I mean, you shouldn't feel guilty for something you had no control over. But sure, pressing blue is strictly better than pressing red and then killing yourself

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Traktorists@abstractorist·25 Nis

@_merin0o @justalexoki Not for nothing. If i press red, what will i be when i listen to a piece of music? Im pressing blue so i dont lose my soul.

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taoki@justalexoki·25 Nis

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Merino@_merin0o·25 Nis

@justalexoki The odds of your vote deciding anything more than your own fate are so astronomically low that you may have a better chance just picking the same atom of the observable universe at random thousands of times in a row

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Merino@_merin0o·25 Nis

@justalexoki Statistically speaking you can't decide anything about the outcome of the game. You can only decide if you will risk your life for absolutely nothing or not confront any risk at all x.com/i/status/20478…

Merino@_merin0o

Something which surprisingly nobody talks about is the absolute irrelevance of your vote here. Choose blue or choose red, it doesn't matter, 7 999 999 999 other people have already decided their own fates and there is nothing you can do about it. You can risk your life or not

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Merino@_merin0o·25 Nis

Something which surprisingly nobody talks about is the absolute irrelevance of your vote here. Choose blue or choose red, it doesn't matter, 7 999 999 999 other people have already decided their own fates and there is nothing you can do about it. You can risk your life or not

Tim Urban@waitbutwhy

Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

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Merino@_merin0o·25 Nis

@ALifeAfterTech @BobMurphyEcon 1. I did not contribute to anything (the organizarion running the game did) + my vote has no relevance as stated before. There was nothing I could do 2. I rather risk living with remorse than risk leaving my child orphan

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LifeAfterTech@ALifeAfterTech·25 Nis

@_merin0o @BobMurphyEcon If you choose blue it doesn't mater what they picked as they will live as long as 50% of the people also choose blue If you chose red and they choose blue you are contributing to their death and you have to live with that. I'd rather orphaned my child than kill them.

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Robert P. Murphy@BobMurphyEcon·25 Nis

To show this isn’t altruism versus selfishness: suppose parents are required to push the button on behalf of their children who are 5 or younger. Which button do you push on their behalf?

Tim Urban@waitbutwhy

Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

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Merino@_merin0o·25 Nis

@ALifeAfterTech @BobMurphyEcon If blue wins we both live regardless of my vote If red wins and they have chosen blue they die regardless of my vote BUT if they chose red, then: -If I pushed blue they are now an orphan -If I pushed red we both live Me pushing red is clearly the best case scenario for them

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Merino@_merin0o·25 Nis

@ALifeAfterTech @BobMurphyEcon If I had a 5 year old son this would be the #1 reason to choose red, knowing my vote does not make any statistical change whatsoever among a population of 8 billion.

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Merino@_merin0o·24 Nis

@aktep @waitbutwhy You could argue red pillers face the risk of feeling guilty, which is true, but then again preserving one's own life seems a stronger force to me than feeling really bad if anyone dies, much more when you can cope thinking those who died put themselves on that situation willingly

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Merino@_merin0o·24 Nis

@aktep @waitbutwhy Yeah, maybe I didn't justify it properly. As I see it, red pillers do not confront any risk at this poll nor in a real scenario, so very little changes for them. Blue pillers, however, go from risking nothing to risking their own lifes, which could affect some decisions

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Tim Urban@waitbutwhy·24 Nis

Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

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Merino@_merin0o·24 Nis

@prerat In the pill game everyone has the choice to choose, and therefore everyone is equal. If anyone dies is because they put themselves willingly at risk, nobody is pulling a trigger on anyone. The reframing adds this nuance and therefore changes the question at a fundamental level

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Merino@_merin0o·24 Nis

@prerat What I mean with the trolley problem is that is not just "1 person dies or 5 people die in equal circunstances", but rather "You pull the trigger on 1 inocent person and save 5 who would otherwise die". This reframing is the same but on the inverse: (cont.)

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prerat@prerat·24 Nis

Everyone responding to this poll chooses whether they want to pick up a red gun or do nothing. if u do nothing, u get a blue tshirt. - if > 50% of ppl wear blue, nothing happens - if not, all reds must fire on the blues. u must personally pull the trigger Which do you choose?

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Merino@_merin0o·24 Nis

@aktep @waitbutwhy IMO, if you were to do this in real life, showing this poll where blue wins would paradoxically convince most people to choose red at the moment of truth

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Merino@_merin0o·24 Nis

@aktep @waitbutwhy Using this poll as reference seems pretty unrealistic, as nobody is actually risking anything (let alone their own life). We don't know the actual numbers, but is pretty safe to assume this 47% is the floor for red. If just ~3% of blues flip their vote when at risk, all blues die

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Merino@_merin0o·24 Nis

@aktep @waitbutwhy Red pill is a much stabler equilibria. I see the case for blue when there is no information shared, but with communication people would be much more confident under "we are all choosing red" than "let's hope most of us don't choose red"

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anonymous@aktep·24 Nis

@_merin0o @waitbutwhy Then the test becomes pointless. And if anything, it is easier to comm. this strat to 50%+1 of people, than to all people. Humanity is not a borg hivemind. In your case "misclickers" still die. Blue option ensures EVERYONE survives with much higher information friction tolerance.

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Merino@_merin0o·24 Nis

@waitbutwhy "Let's play russian roulette, but with a cach. If more than 50% of people choose to play, the barrel will be empty. Otherwise, it will be full and you wil 100% die. As everyone else, you are fully free to not play, btw, but that would be too selfish, wouldn't it?. Will you play?"

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Merino@_merin0o·24 Nis

@aktep @waitbutwhy Just for curiosity, if you could comunicate a strategy to everyone involved before they take the pill, what would you say? Take the blue pill or the red pill?

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anonymous@aktep·24 Nis

@_merin0o @waitbutwhy You can argue that there was no way to know how people would have voted, but we have millenia of human history to learn from, something libertarians refuse to do, time and again.

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