Julian

@alojohhardcore @jeffhcincy @AhmedHegazy doesn't the S&P still require them to be profitable for like 4 quarters before inclusion?

@alojohhardcore at least publicly, wouldn't be surprised if they pretend to be "all-in, buying at every price, best risk adjusted opportunity EvER" but then trade the stock or are playing other opportunities.

@alojohhardcore so glad we have the HC now and get your unfiltered opinion, all the influencers are already heavily pushing this being the best thing since sliced bread

@alojohhardcore @bkang18 Unfortunately I can't see the post you replied to, can you share what was asked?

I am no pro either, rotating into any of those names with margin ultimately comes down to your risk tolerance. You can of course go balls deep fully leveraged into those names and yolo it, and risk being margin called should the market sell off hard, high risk high reward. My impression so far of AJ and his team is that they are more risk averse, they see upcoming headwinds due to SpaceX IPO and high oil prices and therefore inflation. While they believe the Trump admin will do what they can to get oil prices down, it is hard to tell when and if they succeed in the near term. AJ has stated multiple times that he is more than happy to trade upside for better volatility, thus also the reason while he currently sees TSLA as uninvestable, there could be a major rally due to some Elon tweet or Optimus demo, but there could also be a major drawdown due to SpaceX IPO, so risk on that one is off the chart. Keep in mind I do not speak for AJ, the above is all just my interpretation of his posts and what he stated so far, so I could be completely off.

Thank you. This makes sense. I haven’t been using margin…. Think those selling margin and or cash will now rotate into MSFT, PLTR and/or LITE? AJ’s goal is to buy NVDA back near the end of August, so looking to deploy margin or capital allows an investor to capitalize on any upside in an asset between now and end of August. Wondering what stocks he will rotate to. The three mentioned above seem to be the best opportunity rn? Also Micron. Thanks again for the response. I’m new to HC community 🤝

I think (keep in mind I have not read the article yet) AJ mentioned that they are still leveraged, i.e. they are negative on their account and have outstanding debt. My read is that selling NVDA contributes to lowering that debt and not necessarily buying anything new with the proceeds. Such that should there be major market turmoil due to high oil prices or the SpaceX IPO he can then take on more debt to should highly attractive names sell off hard. For instance if he has 100k in allowable debt, and currently uses the full 100k then there is no way of buying opportunities on the cheap. However if the outstanding debt is reduced to 50k (due to paying off with NVDA proceeds) then he has another 50k to spare whenever a good opportunity arrives. Also it reduces the likelihood of a margin call should we see a major sell off.

@alojohhardcore When you rotate out of NVDA, do you: 1. Stay on cash, buy back before end of August. 2. Rotate % of cash to PLTR 3. Rotate % of cash to LITE 4. Something else

@alojohhardcore Interesting, is it fair to say that using NTM+1 vs NTM+2 means that the market is more focused on the near term rather than looking further out?

@alojohhardcore Awesome, thanks for the update, quick question. What is the reason to switch from NTM+2 yoy growth to NTM+1 yoy growth for the PEG ratio?

@alojohhardcore @stevenleebeyer1 @stekkerauto out of curiosity, will the cockpit incorporate some of the risk metrics that you use for judging opportunities. I.e. a TSLA at -1.5 std deviation is less attractive as compared to NVDA at -1.5 std deviation due to risk (TSLA being 250 PE and NVDA being 20)?

to build on the compression topic, that's also in line with the typical "rock" and "lock" sounds as in the asian language "r" and "l" sound is identical, so a Chinese person has a hard time to distinguish between "r" and "l" since their brain early on was not trained to differentiate between the two. In language learning it is referred to as minimal pairs and contributes to the fact that for westerners it is harder to learn asian languages as in the beginning you just can't hear the difference.

awesome thanks for the update and all the hard work by you and the team, amazing what you put out (in addition to the research)🙇‍♂️ One request, would it be possible to display the current PEG value for each name (assuming your forecast goes far enough out) excluding the GP corridors.

@alojohhardcore I bought as well, for the first time with leverage, was lucky and bought very close to the bottom. Up already, looking forward to this one playing out.

@alojohhardcore Indeed, I remember distinctly that reading this raised, for the first time, some doubts. But yeah things have been different for a couple of years.

One of the first things that I remember that rubbed me wrong was in Walter Isaacson book, I can't remember the exact phrasing but it was along the lines of Elon saying Tesla isn't doing so well and he needs to think of something to get folks excited again. This "thing to get people excited again" was then autonomy. Another instance from the book was the SolarCity acquisition, where he went to "war mode" to justify the purchase, but as soon as there was no pressure again to justify it, the whole thing went from being front and center to the back burner

@alojohhardcore was thinking about it as well, but due to high CGT NVDA would need to drop 5% and MU 8% for me to just break even (not including spreads) so I passed, guess I will have to ride it through.

@alojohhardcore same, 50% by MW

@alojohhardcore In my experience painful lessons are learned best, so if one can fail often and cheap with the right reflection a great deal can be learned.

Exactly, this is where your decades of experience comes in, you look at the print and immediately know what's up (or at least have a hunch that something doesn't add up). It taught me a lesson, I am glad I was able to make that mistake "cheaply" (i.e. it didn't cost me much to be wrong here).

This trade was an important lesson for me, I am a bit late with commenting but wanted to share regardless. I followed the "bet on elon pulling a rabbit out of the hat" with a small amount. I saw this post after numbers drop and was debating if I should get out or not. (Important context here, I trade the German equivalent ticker and I only had 30 min after numbers drop to trade before the exchange closed, which closed BEFORE the earnings call) Now, I remembered your reflection on getting out of ORCL too early and though to myself "maybe Elon will pull a rabbit stock could rally, I gamble". The flaw in my reasoning was, the bet on Elon is in the end a bet, a gamble, it could go either way, only Elon knows. This is where AJs decades of experience kicks in to trust his gut feeling of getting out after seeing the numbers. I for my part had a flawed reasoning, getting out of ORCL too early is in no shape or form comparable to the TSLA trade, given the fundamental different risk profile and ORCLs rally being driven by fundamentals. Anyways, end of story I closed my position the next morning with a small loss (nothing major, was a small bet anyways) but an important learning experience for myself. TL;DR NEVER BET AGAINST AJ.