Randolf Carr

ミュンヘン演説以降、ますます「米欧文明論」に自信を深める米国務省（というかルビオ）。アテネ、ローマまで出てきて「数千年」と言い始め、この「高貴な遺産」で衰退を食い止めるらしい。政治的に「西側」と言った場合には日本も入るものの、さすがにこれには入らない。米はこれで突き進むのか。

#MSC2026 is live. For sure. securityconference.org/live

Trump 2.0's first China military power report just dropped. The Preface is very conciliatory toward Beijing and clearly written by politicos. Relevant excerpts here: "Under President Trump’s leadership, relations between the United States and China are stronger than they have been in many years, and the Department of War will support efforts to build on this progress. We will do so in part by opening a wider range of military-to-military communications with the PLA with a focus on strategic stability as well as deconfliction and de-escalation, more broadly. We will also seek other ways to make clear our peaceful intentions. At the same time, we will ensure that the Joint Force is always ready and able to defend our nation’s interests in the Indo-Pacific. As we do so, it bears emphasizing that U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific are fundamental—but also scoped and reasonable. We do not seek to strangle, dominate, or humiliate China. Rather, as laid out in President Trump’s National Security Strategy, we seek only to deny the ability of any country in the Indo-Pacific to dominate us or our allies. That means being so strong that aggression is not even considered, and that peace is therefore preferred and preserved. The Department of War will therefore prioritize bolstering deterrence in the Indo-Pacific through strength, not confrontation. President Trump seeks a stable peace, fair trade, and respectful relations with China, and the Department of War will ensure that he is able to achieve these objectives from a position of military strength. In the process, we will forge and sustain a balance of power that will enable all of us to enjoy a decent peace in an Indo-Pacific—one in which trade flows openly and fairly, we can all prosper, and all nations’ interests are respected." media.defense.gov/2025/Dec/23/20…

Taiwan’s Kuo Min Tang — which controls nearly half of the island’s parliament seats — now adopts the Putin view of the war in Ukraine. A notable data point for Western policy makers.

And China is dominating another technology class, one that was supposed to have inherent western advantages . Open link to source article nytimes.com/interactive/20…

The TikTok deal is a prime example of “win-win cooperation.” China wins twice.

@RnaudBertrand I wasn't aware the judge entered a verdict too. That (unlike the dropped charges) would, at least formally, warrant the term "exonerated", so I stand corrected. Thanks for following up. I do wonder why MPs maintain they saw a "clear line" of evidence, if there was truly nothing.

I'm not interpreting anything: when prosecutors drop charges👇 and a judge formally enters not guilty verdicts (Mrs Justice Cheema-Grubb did exactly this), those individuals ARE cleared of all charges AND exonerated in a legal sense. That's literally what those legal actions mean.

Remember the scandal two years ago in the UK on how Parliament had been "infiltrated" by two "Chinese spies" and how this was indicative of the "threat" China posed? The two men in question have just been cleared of all charges. In fact, the case against them was so weak there wasn't even a trial: "the Crown Prosecution Service had determined the evidence it had gathered did not meet the threshold to go to trial" (bbc.com/news/articles/…). Yet another fantastic illustration of manufacturing consent: there was insane hysteria in the media over this case at the time, on how this meant "democracy itself was under assault from China," and how the UK had to "wake up" to the "China threat". All over literally nothing since the case couldn't even clear the threshold for trial. But the damage has been done: it's a fair bet that the immense majority of Britons still believe their Parliament was infiltrated by "Chinese spies". They'll remember the screaming headlines, the grave warnings from politicians, the expert panels discussing the "unprecedented threat." They won't remember this quiet exoneration that came years later, buried in the back pages.

@RnaudBertrand Again, you're free to interpret what happened any way you want. My point was simply that, by your own standards of accuracy, you shouldn't bandy about specific legal terms that mean something different than what happened.

I seriously hope this is sarcasm. When prosecutors won't even bring a case to trial after two years of investigation, that's MORE exonerating than an acquittal. An acquittal means "we couldn't prove it beyond reasonable doubt." Not meeting the threshold for trial means "we have basically nothing."

NEW: The new National Defense Strategy has been delivered to SecDef Hegseth for review, and places homeland security over deterring China has the Pentagon’s primary mission. Not everyone in the Pentagon thinks that’s a good idea.

I recognise not everyone feels the need to buy a screen privacy protector before working on their laptop on a train or plane. But if you're writing an email in massive font that begins "Dear Munich Security Conference team" you probably should be investing in one.

Die Schlinge zieht sich zu. Die Versorgung der deutschen Industrie mit Rohstoffen aus China 🇨🇳 verschärft sich weiter. Es tritt jetzt ein, was jahrelang befürchtet wurde und vor dem wir gewarnt haben: #China setzt den Export als geopolitisches Druckmittel ein.🧵

Japan scraps US meeting after Washington demands more defence spending on.ft.com/4ncQ30O

SCOOP - Japan scraps 2+2 meeting with Rubio & Hegseth over defence spending dispute. US was pushing Japan to boost spending to 3% of GDP but Bridge Colby abruptly increased the ask to 3.5%, angering Tokyo #USJapanScoop (w ⁦@Urbandirt⁩) on.ft.com/3TyrZYJ

According to Japan MoD "the recent sailings by the carriers may have been intended to practice countering U.S. forces in the event of a Taiwan contingency, with one playing the role of a U.S. aircraft carrier and the other practicing intercepting it."👀 japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/06/1…

China’s Foreign Ministry claimed that Ishiba had told Wang that "Japan respects the positions elaborated by the Chinese side” — a statement that Ishiba had never made, according to Japan’s foreign ministry. Japan protests. japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/03/2…

It’s clear from this that the only difference between Steve Witkoff’s and Vladmir Putin’s views on the war in Ukraine is that Putin actually knows the names of all the five Ukrainian regions he wants to keep.

The office responsible for implementing the Chips Act is losing around two-fifths of its staff - Around 20 people took voluntary deferred resignations & left last week - Around 40 probationary employees being fired today bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

US-Ukraine minerals deal: the full text @FT The terms of the bilateral agreement between Kyiv and Washington ft.com/content/387afd…

For a lifelong transatlanticist like me who came of age at the peak of American (hard and soft) power, these days feel like when your aging parent suddenly succumbs to Alzheimer’s, not recognizing you anymore, and, what’s worse, not knowing who they themselves are.