Aaron Strauss

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Aaron Strauss

Aaron Strauss

@aaronstrauss

Using evidence-based strategies to elect Dems; Dad x2; feminist; kidney donor. Fmr Exec Dir @AnalystInst; ex- @DCCC, @Google. https://t.co/yRi7WJ2rqn

Katılım Mart 2009
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Aaron Strauss
Aaron Strauss@aaronstrauss·
Musk chose the robo-taxi date 8/8 not because they're ready, but to dog whistle to neo-nazi white supremacists adl.org/resources/hate… Find me on threads: @aaronbstrauss" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">threads.net/@aaronbstrauss
Bloomberg@business

This was supposed to be the day Tesla would show off some robotaxis. They're not ready, the system Elon Musk touts as evidence of their imminence is flawed trib.al/2Bk06OX

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Aaron Strauss
Aaron Strauss@aaronstrauss·
I'm over at the other app with professional news: joining up with others to figure out how Dems can win more elections! bsky.app/profile/aarons…
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David Shor
David Shor@davidshor·
I spent some time today digging into the voting-center level results recently posted by the Venezuelan opposition (resultadosconvzla.com) 1) Their dataset has ~81% coverage - doing some modeling to extrapolate the data they collected to the rest of the country, I'm estimating that the Opposition got 66% of the vote compared to 32% for Maduro. 2) Unsurprisingly, the ~20% of missing precincts are modeled to be substantially more supportive of Maduro (Opposition +19) than the precincts they did collect (Opposition + 37) and also are quite a bit smaller, lending some credence to the data generation process. Even if Maduro won all of the votes in these precincts the opposition still would win easily. 3) The opposition saw it's largest gains in lower-income precincts that went strongly for Maduro in 2013, winning ~2/3rds of precincts that Maduro won eleven years ago 4) It's hard to "prove" that a set of election results are real - but having spent a decent amount of time doing regressions on the results, they show the same kind of complex relationships with previous election results and demographics that I have seen in American elections, in a way that I think would be pretty difficult to replicate out of thin air.
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Jesse Ferguson
Jesse Ferguson@JesseFFerguson·
🚨 HUGE spike in awareness and rejection of Project2025 JUNE 24, 2024: -9 points FAV: 10% UNFAV: 19% JULY 14, 2024: -32 points FAV: 11% UNFAV: 43%
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Bill de Blasio
Bill de Blasio@BilldeBlasio·
This decision puts @JoeBiden in a pantheon of selfless American political heroes. We have to compare @POTUS to three of our greatest Presidents, who all made a similar decision: Washington, Truman and LBJ. History will embrace @JoeBiden!
Joe Biden@JoeBiden

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Tammy Baldwin
Tammy Baldwin@tammybaldwin·
Get a load of this guy...
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Molly Jong-Fast
Molly Jong-Fast@MollyJongFast·
He sounds so tired
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Ben Wikler
Ben Wikler@benwikler·
Genuinely don't want this guy on my TV for the next four years.
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Jessica Valenti
Jessica Valenti@JessicaValenti·
The @nytimes is has *deceptively edited a JD Vance quote* to make it appear that he opposes a national ban. Here's the 2022 quote they use: “Ohio is going to want to have a different abortion policy from California, from New York, and I think that’s reasonable."
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Trae Crowder
Trae Crowder@traecrowder·
ON JD VANCE’S WHOLE DEAL
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Kelsey Piper
Kelsey Piper@KelseyTuoc·
CS Lewis said once, "“Suppose one reads a story of filthy atrocities in the paper. Then suppose that something turns up suggesting that the story might not be quite true, or not quite so bad as it was made out. Is one's first feeling, 'Thank God, even they aren't quite so bad as that,' or is it a feeling of disappointment, and even a determination to cling to the first story for the sheer pleasure of thinking your enemies are as bad as possible?" A lot of Gaza discourse on this site feels to me like it runs off a determination to enjoy the sheer pleasure of thinking your enemies are as bad as possible. And there's plenty of grist for that - even if you don't invent any from whole cloth - but it's a destructive impulse and more than that it's a masturbatory impulse. It doesn't save a single person in Gaza. I don't know what will, but I think you have to start by doing your best to actually estimate the numbers you care about, not just pull out creative arguments for inflating them.
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Zach Lowy
Zach Lowy@ZachLowy·
US Soccer will never be a successful program as long as they continue to ignore the nation’s most talented players and prioritize the players whose parents can afford travel fees, tournament registration, summer camps and everything else involved in the sham that is youth soccer.
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Robert Downen
Robert Downen@RobertDownen_·
"Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had everything to do with that. And that shows you how disinformation can kill.” This Vanity Fair piece on RFK Jr. is a must-read for a number of reasons, including this anecdote. vanityfair.com/news/story/rob…
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