Flyu

1.1K posts

Flyu

Flyu

@abcdefmlzy

Katılım Ağustos 2021
262 Takip Edilen806 Takipçiler
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Flyu
Flyu@abcdefmlzy·
I was just verified on @PolymarketTrade! Super grateful. Ever since I've started posting about Polymarket there's been so many opportunites for creating content and making safe trades on Polymarket. I'm glad to see everyone's enjoying the alpha drops, I'll surely post more!
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Mustafa
Mustafa@mustafap0ly·
big announcement monday 😛🪙
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Flyu
Flyu@abcdefmlzy·
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polynter.net@polynternet

YOU CAN FARM SMALL YIELDS ON POLYMARKET WITH 99% MARKETS > while everyone is searching for the next big edge quant traders just farm the 99% markets > we built a page that finds them instantly: polynter.net/markets-99 > markets resolving soon > ~99% probability outcomes > real liquidity filters perfect if you want to park capital and capture small, fast returns but this is just one tab @PolynterNet also includes: > trader leaderboards > market discovery across thousands of markets > ecosystem analytics > global Polymarket stats > multiple dashboards to explore the entire platform more tools coming soon

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Flyu
Flyu@abcdefmlzy·
@BrokieTrades I personally use Bayes' vibe betting theorem❤️‍🩹 and size accordingly using Kelly fullport criterion
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brokie@BrokieTrades·
Gave my roommate a Polymarket API key. Told him: this guy is mass printing on political markets. He made $247,000 in 5 months. Roommate replied: 'dude, this is literally Bayes' theorem from Stats 101. Hard-code this into a bot and it'll do the same thing.' 2 minutes to deploy. I checked. Started analyzing. Same markets as everyone else. Same entry prices. But one thing was different. He sized his positions using one formula. Most traders put the same amount on every bet. He went 40x on some, 0.5x on others. A formula from Stats 101. f* = (bp − q) / b. Sounds like gibberish. In reality — one sentence. And it explains why 91% of Polymarket traders have negative ROI even when their win rate is above 50%. Your brain treats every bet the same. Say you find two markets. Both at 50 cents. Market A you're 80% sure resolves YES. Market B you're 55% sure. Normal person: $500 on each. Kelly says: $1,200 on A. $45 on B. Same bankroll, completely different allocation. Iran Supreme Leader market. 6 candidates. Most traders spread $1000 evenly. $166 each. Kelly calculation on Mohseni-Eje'i at 14 cents with 45% implied probability: f* = 0.36. Put 36% of bankroll on one name. Resolved. +$89,000. Equal-weight traders made $4,200 on the same outcome. A 21x difference from one formula. Built a bot. One rule: size every position by Kelly fraction. 24 trades. +74% ROI. When I sized manually — 52 trades and −3%. This is how the sharps actually trade Polymarket. Not better picks. Better sizing. One formula. 2 minutes to set up. Try it.
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Flyu
Flyu@abcdefmlzy·
Super obvious all the TVL on Opinion was inorganic. Base fee for all taker orders, crimed up Volume, top points holders weren't even traders, they were just pure volume washers. Ask yourself why would you pick Opinion to trade on the same exactly market when Polymarket offers it? There really is no second best prediction market.
Frosen@Frosen

Opinion TVL dropped by over 60% right after airdrop allocation Not surprised, they provided a terrible product (most of their markets were copied from Polymarket word for word!) and they just farmed their community

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Flyu
Flyu@abcdefmlzy·
The biggest risk about LPing as you size up is that extremely liquid markets are not always exposed to 0 tail-risk. The first government shutdown market was not updated on OPM, and reversed quickly. Maduro was caught and resolved very quickly overnight. Now Iran was striked and reversed, resolving extremely fast. If you have big bids placed on markets, 99% of the cases the movement will be clean and low, but 1% of the time the market will actually resolve. Doing lower size means you don't earn a meaningful amount. Just something to consider. There were some earlier signs, like a Kiriakou prediction, but I understand, most things are just noise, this one happened to be right. Unfortunate, but you'll recover.
josele.sol@joselebetis2

GM. I guess thanks Mr. President @realDonaldTrump Down $23.5k here, so at this point I’m just hoping $POLY retires me. What’s your most painful Polymarket loss?

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Flyu
Flyu@abcdefmlzy·
@Eltonma Are you automated, manual, or both?
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Elton Ma
Elton Ma@Eltonma·
I know I don’t have a lot of followers now but today I will do a Q&A section, ask me anything. And I promise I won’t lie
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Flyu
Flyu@abcdefmlzy·
@betmoardotfun's new sponsorship dashboard is out, and the data is honestly super interesting. Firstly, the guy who accidentally sponsored $70k ended up being able to cancel a day later, but he still lost about $38k About 3,000 people already tested the feature already. $142k rewards have been emitted, and this comes from the USERS themselves. That's already almost 1% of Poly's current LP rewards in just 4 days. Will be very interested to see where the emissions stabilize at.
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Flyu
Flyu@abcdefmlzy·
Big things are happening on the rewards front of things. I think it'll be worth it to log and track @PolyReward data. > Sponsoring feature is live, so far haven't seen the payouts for any of those markets hit yet, but this will further increase interest in liquidity provisioning > It may require more to be "top 1%" "top 10%" in the future. If whales want to sponsor markets, there'll be much more rewards. Win win. Over the coming months, I want to see the impacts of sponsoring on rewards. Will they cause the daily emissions to increase much further, leading to much more liquidity across the site as a whole? TVL and total LP rewards given are two very important metrics to keep tabs on.
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Flyu
Flyu@abcdefmlzy·
This is a big step forward. Don’t understand why people equate prediction markets to gambling. How are prediction markets closer to casinos than they are to options, perpetual futures, and other contracts? People are just not really informed. Polymarket markets on asset prices have expiry dates, strike prices, etc. it is no different to many other financial instruments. Just because people incorrectly use prediction markets (I believe this happens on perp dexs as well) does not inherently make the service itself gambling adjacent. People degen on robinhood, too. Hopefully state regulation start to see and understand.
Mike Selig@ChairmanSelig

I have some big news to announce…

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Flyu
Flyu@abcdefmlzy·
@coffeebreak_YT Equating prediction markets to gambling shows how little you understand about the topic.
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Flyu
Flyu@abcdefmlzy·
@ika_xbt @retentionjunkie @Polymarket This is because the stock market closes on the weekends, and there’s far less up or down markets to LP on. Also generally most new reward markets are added during the weekday.
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Short Form King
Short Form King@retentionjunkie·
Rewards are getting harder and harder to earn on @Polymarket Time is running out to create a good footprint of activity before TGE
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Flyu
Flyu@abcdefmlzy·
Polymarket is the only dapp worth focusing on, farming or not. Perps trading will only get more and more difficult into the bear market, as volume dies and prices just chop for longer. There will always be another event to predict and have an edge on. Learning to genuinely trade prediction markets is one of the most productive things you can do during the bear.
Didi@DidiTrading

Day 437: Current airdrop farming list Stick to these 3 and you'll outperform 99%

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Flyu
Flyu@abcdefmlzy·
Super interesting data, some comments: 1.) I believe HYPE has way more delta neutral/arb farmers. It is significantly easier to arb funding rates on leveraged positions than it is to arb books on prediction markets (which naturally have slightly different resolution rules). A lot of wallets farming funding would make the win rate higher. Generally people would short on hyperliquid and long/buy spot on other exchanges, which has been performing pretty well the last few months. 2.) The data shows that Polymarket is significantly more friendly to use and understand, but Hyperliquid is not. Hence, people are much more likely to "try out" Polymarket than hyperliquid. It is very intuitive to understand and just bet on an outcome on Polymarket. It is much harder for a regular person who doesn't know anything to understand cross margin, isolated margin, what leverage to put, what liquidations are, etc. I think this makes it so Polymarket has way more wallets that have signed up and placed a few fun trades, while people who sign up to Hyperliquid tend to be more serious and are here to actually trade, which is why there's a disparity in the wallet count. 3.) Surprised that the wallets >$1M profit is higher on Polymarket than Hyperliquid. I always assumed leverage would make it so profitability is easier on Hype, but seems like introducing leverage does not necessarily make profitable people even more profitable.
Luis Hauenstein@luishXYZ

This is nuts. The best Hyperliquid traders are *ultra* profitable compared to Polymarket sharps. The numbers aren't even close. I analyzed all wallets across both platforms. Here's who's winning, and where retail traders have a better chance at making money successfully: Some general statistics: - Polymarket has 4x more users (1.7M vs 411K). - Hyperliquid has 30x (!) the trading volume. But where are traders winning more often? Overall, slightly more wallets are profitable on Hyperliquid (25%) versus Polymarket (16%). The difference isn't huge. But when focusing on wallets that actually make money, the picture looks different: 1. Wallets with >$100k profit: - Polymarket: 3,219 (0.19%) - Hyperliquid: 2,973 (0.72%) Nearly the same raw number. But with 4x fewer users, your odds of being a $100K+ winner on Hyperliquid are almost 4x higher. 2. Wallets with >$1M profit: - Polymarket: 668 (0.04%) - Hyperliquid: 580 (0.14%) Almost the same story. Hyperliquid mints millionaires at 3.5x the rate. Now the dark side. 3. Wallets that lost >$1M: - Polymarket: 149 (0.01%) - Hyperliquid: 809 (0.20%) More wallets lost $1M+ on Hyperliquid than made $1M+. The graveyard is bigger than the winners' circle. On Polymarket, losing >$1m is extremely rare. But *why* does Hyperliquid have so many more winners? The answer: Perps have a completely different payoff structure. (Leverage, baby!) This comes with up- and downsides. Understanding the payoff structure of the instrument you're trading is an absolute most. Without knowing this, you probably shouldn't even place any trade. Tomorrow I'll break it down further.

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Flyu
Flyu@abcdefmlzy·
How do you actually farm for $POLY? Recently there's been a big push from the Polymarket team, talking about the $POLY token. IMO most of it are just fun jokes, like the vibecoding one, but the reality is the token has been increasingly talked about recently. The first genuine mention was about 3 months ago, when the CMO went on a podcast and talked about the airdrop, and how it's confirmed, and they want to make sure it's good. Snapshot not taken is also confirmed. So what can you do as a user to set yourself up well for the upcoming airdrop? Simply put - the best way to farm is to NOT farm it at all. Most methods of people "farming" like washing volume, spamming buys and sells, etc. None of those actually teach you how to trade prediction markets, and all of that activity is meaningless. In the large wave of threads talking about "optimal farming strategy", the best strategy is to simply learn to trade markets, learn to read market rules, arb the books, etc. Polymarket's activity will only keep exploding every week, and as books get more liquid there will be more opportunity. Why not set yourself up for future success by learning now? The best "farmers" are the top traders. Set yourself up so you can learn to trade prediction markets, both pre and post TGE! Credit to @Frosen for deleted tweet ss:
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Keşfet

@BrokieTrades @Eltonma @betmoardotfun @PolyReward @coffeebreak_YT @ika_xbt @retentionjunkie @Polymarket