Advanced Capital

@BTCoptioneer a 10x in 10 years is a win, simple as that

2036 base case: BTC $600K $MSTR $2400 $ASST $300 Assumptions: -25% BTC CAGR -25% preferred demand CAGR

@edstromandrew You’re trimming down here at 65k? This feels like back in the day, would you trim at 6k to try and catch the 3k bottom?

@advancedhodl Yes. This is the essence of portfolio management. I trim when I see bear market as likely (as was the case last year) and I add if it gets extremely attractive again. Position sizing.

My next prediction on #Bitcoin price is here. I don't make that many, but my track record is good. First the disclaimers. Nothing I say publicly is investment advice.  Do your own research. Unless stated otherwise, this post refers to things that could happen within 1 year from now. Also, none of this was triggered by the attack on Iran.  You know this because I tweeted yesterday (before the attack) that I would be posting this weekend. And reminder that if anyone talks to you about Bitcoin in certainties, run in the opposite direction.  NOTHING about Bitcoin is certain. Ok here we go. The Bitcoin BEAR MARKET is ONGOING. YOU WERE PREPARED because you paid attention when I predicted it with 60% probability in November.  (link below), and you did your own thinking and prudent planning. So what next? Right now price is ranging in the $60s.  This won't last forever. Now the path depends more on actual events and macro market conditions. Prior cycles suggest at least one more down leg sometime this year. This is not guaranteed, but I'll put 65% likelihood on it.  Basically 2-to-1 odds in favor of further pain. What could drive it?  Any of the following: 1. General bear market in U.S. or worldwide stocks, especially tech stocks 2. Ongoing global liquidity shrinkage 3. Major hack / security compromise 4. Major geopolitical event (e.g. hot war with China) 5. Major advance in AI causing fear about durability of encryption 6. Indications of strong Democratic wave in the November election 7. People selling to pay taxes 8. Clarity Act failing to pass 9. Many other things I haven't even thought of Am I buying anything BTC related right now?  Nope. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't.  The same ideas that I told Danny on WBD recently still apply.  If you're underallocated, then stacking makes sense.  If not then it doesn't.  I have found other areas to make attractive risk-adjusted returns but that doesn't mean others can.  But your situation is different from mine. If we get another major leg down do I expect to get greedy and buy BTC-driven assets? You betcha. Do I expect that final capitulation to be huge if my 65% scenario plays out?  Not really, though I'm calibrated to normal Bitcoin ranges, which are very wide. Would the $58k gang ride again?  Quite likely. Would we see a 4-handle?  I'd say 50% chance (within the 65% scenario = 33% chance overall). Would we see a 3 handle?  Not likely.  Maybe 15% chance overall from here and unlikely to last long. Reminder.  Bitcoin can still go to much lower levels or even zero.  I think those are low single digit percentage probabilities but they do exist. So what would the "$60k was the bottom" scenario look like? Something like the opposite of the aforementioned list of horrors.  Especially anything that adds liquidity to financial markets. Does any of this change my long-term thesis?  Nah. My book, Why Buy Bitcoin, went to press in 2019 when price was $8k.  The 10-year price target was $400k.  We're right on track.  Ok, maybe we're a little behind schedule right now. That's ok.  Patience is a virtue.  Don't panic.  Always be prepared for more downside in BTC price.  And be prepared for Bitcoin to realize its upside potential. I wish you all the best.

My plan is to live as a redneck until the FED collapses, then become an aristocrat

If your instinct is to sell, not buy, on days like today, stick to your day job. Professional investing is not going to be a profitable career path for you.

Bitcoin will go down just far enough to convince the least skilled, lowest IQ market participants that it’s following the 4 year cycle template perfectly despite all other macro conditions being completely different. This will be the most powerful slingshot move ever. Mark it.

I can stay retarded longer than the Bitcoin price can stay gay

In 2018, $BTC hovering around $5–10k, people used to joke that it would eventually “crash to $60k.” Back then, $60k sounded absurdly optimistic, almost science fiction Today, $60k is what people call a crash after six-figure prices This volatility isn’t a bug, it’s the path

@milesdeutscher lol it’s the same shit everytime. At the top everyone thinks it’s tripling and at the bottom everyone thinks it’s over

The less people think it’s possible the more likely it is to happen. 200k in play

@BTCoptioneer @AdamBLiv Easier to just get 11.25% return in STRC

@AdamBLiv Easy 10% return by betting against it

Polymarket odds has 10% chance of MicroStrategy going BANKRUPT this year. Gotta feel really sorry for anyone stupid enough to buy the "Yes" on this one.

Ok, enough… Stop freaking out. Bitcoin is without doubt the best asset that money can buy. Real estate? Liquidity trap with huge bid offer spread, and ongoing bleed through maintenance and taxes. Gold? Absolutely impossible to trade efficiently in the actual asset - get robbed everywhere: transportation, smelting, and broker fees enormous. Plus completely impractical to carry around. Equities? A crap shoot. If you can invest in good allocators then sure, but unless you are a great trader then buy an index fund and underperform the real rate of debasement. Bonds? Joke Venture? Be lucky Lottery? At least you’re honest at this point. Just buy bitcoin. It’s 10x better than gold, but trades at a 95% discount to gold. Be grateful that you discovered it early and stop moaning that it’s so cheap!

Bitcoin thrives on wrong consensus. Everyone expects a bear market now, so naturally, I expect we rip higher in the near to mid term (inside 2026)

401k (the ultimate scam) = duration mismatch. If you need liquidity soon, own low-volatility yield (e.g., STRC) A 401k locks your capital for decades yet pushes safe index funds (~7–10%/yr). Long duration should be paired with volatility; time is the edge for real returns.

Consultants will charge you to borrow your watch to tell you what time it is. The closest I ever came to premeditated murder was with a McKinsey consultant with a Harvard degree I was made to work with on a project. I wanted to strangle him before he went into his cocoon to emerge as a World Economic Forum Young Global Leader. Something primal in me said this guy has to go - a John Connor kind of feeling.

Chip Roy was is all in $MSTR 😂

17 years after the white paper, the Bitcoin network is still operational and more resilient than ever. Bitcoin never shuts down. @SenateDems could learn something from that.

O.9 mnav for a spac that holds BTC with no operating company and expensive payrolls and corporate risk and no leverage is not “deep value”