American Enterprise Institute

Iran War (Day 22) · Iranian attack on Diego Garcia: Iran fired two ballistic missiles in a failed attack targeting Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. The US-UK base is around 3,800 kilometers from Iran—extremely notable since Iranian leaders had long claimed to cap their missile ranges at 2,000 kilometers. This upends calculations about where Iran could conceivably reach. · Missile-drone warfare: Iran has reportedly fired around 3,000 missiles in the current war. Interestingly, the pre-war estimate was that Iran had around 2,500 ballistic missiles. The 3,000 number should include cruise missiles fired though. Regardless of where the Iranian missile inventory stands, Iranian Shahed drones pose the most enduring threat. · Iranian fire at Israel (1): Iranian launches at Israel have increasingly originated from central Iran, according to the IDF, likely due to the degradation of missile forces in western Iran. I’m interested to see whether this translates into any significant changes in the volume of Iranian fire at Israel. · Iranian fire at Israel (2): Around 70 percent of the Iranian missiles fired at Israel have reportedly had cluster munitions warheads. That’s up from the 50 percent I noted over a week ago. Iran has intensified its efforts to inflict maximum destruction and stoke panic and terror among civilians. · Iranian decision-making: US and Israeli intelligence believe that Mojtaba is alive but cannot confirm that he’s giving orders. I noted yesterday that Mojtaba has remained surprisingly absent from the public scene, fueling rumors that he is badly wounded or otherwise incapacitated. His IRGC handlers may be the most empowered right now. · Lebanon: Reuters published an exclusive detailing how the IRGC deployed a cadre of officers to Lebanon after the 2024 conflict with Israel to help the group rebuild. This apparently involved reorganizing the Hezbollah command structure and implementing a decentralized defensive doctrine comparable to what the IRGC Ground Forces use in Iran.

Some have been skeptical of the Education Department's push to outsource its responsibilities to other federal agencies. But there are good reasons to think the Treasury Department will improve the administration of the student loan program. My latest @AEI

Iran War (Day 21) · Combined strike campaign: The IDF struck Iranian naval targets, including ships and headquarters facilities, along the Caspian Sea coast for the first time. An Israeli journalist circulated claims that one of the Iranian ships had just returned from Russia and was suspected of carrying drone-related technologies to support Iran. There is precedent for Iran and Russia moving drone materials to one another across the Caspian. · Strait of Hormuz: Iran is trying to redefine the rules of the strait. Iranian officials have repeatedly suggested that they will adopt a more aggressive posture around the strait even after the war ends, possibly including taxing transiting vessels. Iran is negotiating with China, India, Pakistan, Malaysia, Iraq, and possibly others to allow their respective vessels to safely pass the strait for a fee. · Iranian strikes: Iran has sustained its missile and drone strikes on regional energy assets and infrastructure as part of its efforts to destabilize the global energy market. Iranian strikes caused oil loadings to pause temporarily at one of the Saudi ports on the Red Sea. Oil prices remain high but have largely hovered around the sample place for the past 10 days. · Iranian decision-making: The newly selected supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has yet to appear in public, further fueling claims that he is still badly wounded or otherwise incapacitated. The regime has continued to recycle generic photos and footage of him even though it could easily dispel the rumors surrounding his status with a simple video. This continues to raise the question of who’s really calling the shots right now. · Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah is apparently experimenting with new tactics amid its engagements with the IDF in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has dispersed its rockets across southern Lebanon, according to Israeli media, making it harder for the IDF to find. That has hindered Hezbollah’s ability to launch large rocket salvoes. But the overall rate of Hezbollah fire into northern Israel remains high, possibly due to the new approach. · Iraq: Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah announced a five-day suspension of attacks targeting the US embassy in Baghdad if the United States and Israel met certain conditions. The United States and Israel are highly unlikely to meet those conditions, which Kataib Hezbollah almost certainly realizes. Some analysts have said that the suspension of attacks is due to mounting military and political pressure on the militia.

The filibuster has always had more friends than it has seemed to, because it is enormously helpful to the most ideologically moderate members of the majority party in the Senate, writes AEI’s Yuval Levin. thefp.com/p/the-filibust…

In launching Operation Epic Fury, President Trump was committed to a new level of presidential leadership. It requires seriousness. It demands steadiness. It needs resilience, persuasion and patience—the attributes of a wartime commander in chief. My column this week @WSJFreeEx @WSJopinion wsj.com/opinion/free-e…

Iran War (Day 20) · US operations in the Gulf: US forces have begun to use A-10s to hunt and strike Iranian fast attack craft and minelaying vessels generally. A-10 strafing will make it much harder for Iranian vessels to operate around the Gulf. US forces have also begun using Apaches for counter-drone operations, introducing another tool to counter Iranian fire at the Gulf. This should make it harder for Iran to land drone hits. · US F-35 incident: The IRGC struck a US F-35 fighter while operating over Iran for the first time. The fighter proceeded to land safely at a US airbase. I’m skeptical that this is the gamechanger some are suggesting though. The US military is flying a very high number of sorties daily. And F-35s are stealthy but not invisible. Way too many seem to think that tactical losses equal strategic defeat. (I continue to have serious concerns about the US ability to turn this conflict into strategic success, of course) · Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure: Iran responded to the IDF strikes on the South Pars gas field with its own strikes on LNG facilities in Qatar, imposing further pressure on the global energy trade. President Trump responded threatening further attacks on the South Pars field if Iran continues its attacks on Qatar. Trump otherwise seems to oppose further IDF strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. · Iranian attacks on civilian vessels: Iran has likely conducted additional attacks targeting international shipping with missiles and drones. Iran is meanwhile continuing to use the Strait of Hormuz to export its own crude to China in violation of sanctions. This is the benefit that Tehran derives from selectively targeting vessels rather than mining the strait entirely. · Regime stability: It’s worth mentioning how extensive IDF strikes targeting the Iranian repressive apparatus have been. The IDF has targeted the seniormost officials, individual security officers on the street, and most in between. This is a comprehensive effort to shock and confuse repressive apparatus, stoke paranoia, and impose disruption. This is only a temporary effect, however. They will recover eventually. · Lebanon: Fighting around the Israel-Lebanon border remains intense. Lebanese Hezbollah has sustained and even slightly increased its volume of fire into northern Israel. Hezbollah also launched a missile into southern Israel, marking the longest-range attack of the group’s history. The IDF has continued ground operations and airstrikes targeting Hezbollah, especially in southern Lebanon.

AEI’s @ConleyHeather1: We will continue to strike. They will continue to find leaders, and the lower they go, you have less seasoned leadership. You have young, inexperienced leaders, and that in itself is a challenge. Tragically, the conflict continues even though these strikes are continuing to cripple the regime’s leadership model.

It was great talking with @VanceGinn on his excellent podcast.

This week on the What The Hell Is Going On podcast, @DPletka and @MarcThiessen discuss the war in Iran and the media coverage that has followed. Tune in for their breakdown of what victory looks like and myths about the war and its operational success. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wth…

A key question facing the Fed now is how long the Strait of Hormuz will be closed and how serious the damage will be to the Gulf countries’ oil facilities, writes AEI’s Desmond Lachman. nationalreview.com/2026/03/the-fe…

AEI’s @ConleyHeather1: I think this is a really big deal that the summit between President Trump and President Xi Jinping has been postponed, but I think it’s correct. The president needs to stay laser-focused on a conflict that’s spreading by the day.

Iran War (Day 19) · Strait of Hormuz: The US-Israeli combined force appears increasingly focused on securing international shipping around the Strait of Hormuz, with major strikes along the southern Iranian coast and targeting the IRGC Navy headquarters in Tehran. This effort will presumably revolve around the further suppression and destruction of Iranian missile and drone capabilities. I’m concerned, nevertheless, about the threat that the regime led by Mojtaba and the IRGC will pose to the strait in the long term. · Decapitation strikes: The IDF struck and killed Iranian Intelligence and Security Minister Khatib in Tehran overnight. Israel seems to maintain exquisite intelligence on the locations and movements of key regime figures and is trying to eliminate those long responsible for brutal repression. This comes a day after the IDF killed the director of the IRGC Basij Organization, which conducts myriad activities related to regime propaganda, social control, and civil defense. · Energy infrastructure strikes: The IDF appears to have conducted strikes targeting Iranian energy sites, such as the South Pars gas field operated jointly by Iran and Qatar. This natural gas field is the largest in the world and a major source of energy for domestic Iranian consumption. It is critical to the Iranian electrical grid. This could have major reverberations across Iran given its prominent role in supplying so much of the country’s power. The IRGC has threatened further strikes on Gulf energy sites in response. · Iranian retaliatory strategy: Iranian fire across the Middle East has remained largely consistent with what I’ve previously discussed. Iranian fire at Israel continues to feature cluster munitions warheads, which disperse damage over wide areas and endanger civilians. Iranian fire at the Gulf states has remained largely consistent too, with the bulk of the latest fire directed at Saudi Arabia and regional energy infrastructure generally. Tehran has sustained its war of attrition without major disruption for several days now. · Adversary cooperation: The Wall Street Journal published an article yesterday further detailing Russian material and advisory support to Iran in the war. The Kremlin likely views such support as a way to demonstrate some solidarity with Iran while also hurting and undermining the United States, which it regards as one of its principal adversaries. Russia is thus exacerbating the threat that Iran poses to US forces and partners as well as international shipping and regional stability broadly. · Iraq: An Iranian-backed Iraqi militia published footage yesterday purportedly showing an FPV drone flying around the US Embassy in Baghdad, possibly with a fiber optic cable. If real, this is a concerning new militia capability and a serious threat to US personnel. The militias could use such drones to conduct high precision strikes and if supported by fiber optic cables, to overcome electronic jamming measures. Fiber optic-enabled FPV drones have become a ubiquitous tool across the frontlines in Ukraine.

It’s a straightforward trade-off: parents can choose more support now in exchange for smaller credits later. No new spending. No new bureaucracy. No increase in the long-term deficit. Just a better way to deliver a benefit that’s already on the books, writes AEI’s Matt Weidinger on his proposal for a Flexible Child Tax Credit. washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-amer…

WEDS | American Enterprise Institute (@AEI) senior fellow John Fortier discusses proposals to require identification and proof of citizenship to vote and the role of the federal government in elections. Watch live at 8:00am EST!

The available evidence supports the assessment that the combined campaign is achieving its military objectives thus far but is not yet complete. Declaring the campaign a failure at this stage is therefore premature, writes AEI’s @brian_cartr on the war in Iran. criticalthreats.org/analysis/the-w…

Who will lead MAGA 3.0? Iran is putting the two primary flavors of Trumpism to the test @thehill. thehill.com/homenews/admin…

Iran War (Day 18) · Decapitation strikes: The big news of the day is that the US-Israeli combined force killed Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani, who has been a major player in the ruling establishment for decades. Larijani was a relative pragmatist—apparently viewed by some as a potential transitional leader—but was still a brutal figure who oversaw the regime crackdown that killed around 30,000 protesters in January. I expect Supreme Leader Mojtaba and his IRGC gang to try replacing Larijani with one of their own. · Strikes on repressive apparatus: The combined force has also killed Gholam Reza Soleimani, the director of the IRGC Basij Organization. The Basij is a paramilitary entity that the IRGC uses to recruit, organize, and further indoctrinate regime loyalists and employs them to monitor the population, suppress dissent, and conduct civil defense activities. Killing Soleimani and other senior Basij commanders will impose decision-making disruption but only temporarily and primarily in the context of internal security activities. · Combined strike campaign: Assessing the extent and damage of the combined strike campaign has become increasingly difficult over the past few days due to the regime working even more aggressively to control the information space. The regime already imposed a countrywide internet shutdown at the beginning of the war. Now, the regime has expanded its digital restrictions and moving against circumvention tools. There’s less and less information leaving Iran while the combined force continues strikes. · Campaign phasing: Despite the heavy censorship, there are still indications that the combined strike campaign is continuing to expand operations across Iran. The combined force struck a drone facility in South Khorasan Province, marking one of the northeastern most hits I’ve seen yet. This is consistent with the phasing we’ve seen to this point: concentrating strikes in the western and southern provinces at first and slowly creeping forward. · Maritime domain: Iran likely struck another civilian ship near the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in several days. This highlights the fundamental challenge that the combined force now faces: Iran does not need its own navy or to fire on commercial traffic every day to disrupt the global energy trade and panic markets. The combined force would need to suppress and then destroy Iranian missile and drone forces and their weapons stockpiles to eliminate the threat. · Lebanon: The IDF announced yesterday the launch of targeted ground operations into southern Lebanon in order to destroy Hezbollah targets and establish a “forward defensive zone.” Exactly what that involves is unclear, though the IDF notably seized key hills and ridgelines during ground operations in Lebanon in late 2024 in order to deny Hezbollah terrain needed to launch close-range fires into northern Israel. Hezbollah has claimed a consistent rate of fire of around 16 attacks daily into northern Israel since March 12.

Federal rental housing assistance is badly in need of reform. It is expensive, unfair, and ineffective at promoting upward mobility. HUD’s proposed rule would go a long way toward empowering communities to address the program’s problems, writes AEI’s @kevincorinth aei.org/articles/time-…

Congratulations to AEI’s J. Joel Alicea on receiving the Federalist Society’s Joseph Story Award. The award is given to a scholar who has demonstrated excellence in legal scholarship, a commitment to teaching the law, concern and charity for their students, and who has made a significant impact in advancing the rule of law in a free society. fedsoc.org/commentary/fed…

AEI’s Elaine McCusker estimates that the incremental cost of Operation Epic Fury is between $11.2 billion and $14.5 billion. aei.org/foreign-and-de…