Aelix

@embrron @combinatortrade

Introducing: Prediction Market Atlas What most people see in prediction markets is only the surface. The categories now shipping include futarchy, distribution markets, multiverse markets, opinion markets, attention markets, decision markets, and info-finance. Each has its own pricing logic, regulatory lane, and audience. PM Atlas maps that landscape across 108 platforms, 12 mechanisms, and 90 concepts, from industry structure down to the actual products being built. A way to track who is building what, how these markets differ, and where the next primitives are emerging. pmatlas.xyz

@airtightfish Excited to see what's in store! Agreed that everything needs to start somewhere and finding a wedge is important. It's where the initial demand is, and that doesn't mean that emergent use cases won't generate more elsewhere.

Side note - this is why I don't mind that prediction markets launched products like sports markets. The full vision of prediction markets is massive, although extremely hard to unlock. The speculative markets have helped them get to a scale where hopefully they can.

@airtightfish I definitely agree. I also think that impact markets @ProofMarkets fill some of the gaps here. Aka measuring the impact of events on assets.

@aelix0x Heavily agree with this. Think one thing is need to think about it in the context of broader markets - Won't be prediction markets in isolation and relative incentives will play a role.

@michael_lwy thanks! cool site!

@aelix0x nice write up ! collected onprediction.xyz/articles/202

Quite concerned about where prediction markets are going. Many have been talking about this so I made a formal write-up.

dug up a historic gem: the Foresight Exchange, a collection of internet prediction markets dating back to 1994 in 1999, "cure cancer by 2010" traded above 60%.

Made a new post on decision markets. If you're interested in some of the current issues decision markets are facing, go check it out! Also, i've also been working on the potential solutions and will make new posts on those soon!

2027: Country of Pro-forecasters in a Data Center

From my favorite philosopher: "We have got on to slippery ice where there is no friction, and so, in a certain sense, the conditions are ideal; but also, just because of that, we are unable to walk. We want to walk: so we need friction. Back to the rough ground!" — Wittgenstein

Philosophy loses its grip the moment it floats too far from how people actually talk and live. Sometimes you need to get off the armchair and touch some grass.

I just installed ChatGPT Atlas (the browser) and churned within 10 minutes. Why would they invest this much into this? The AI sidebar could just be a chromium extension. hmm

ChatGPT opens ad clicks inside its own browser. OpenAI observes your activity after clicking before the merchant's tracking. Does this bypasses your ad blockers and your browser's privacy settings? If so, that's so foul. buchodi.com/how-chatgpt-se…

GitHub was the soul of open source. My dream job in high school too. What happened?

I like blockchain tech quite a bit because it extends open source to open source+state, a genuine/exciting innovation in computing paradigms. I'm just sad and struggle to get over it coming packaged with so much braindead bs (get rich quick pumps/dumps/scams/spams/memes etc.). Ew

Building a startup feels like epistemic bushwhacking