Aloïs Graber
534 posts
Aloïs Graber
@agraber13
https://t.co/Vt8ONigGnt https://t.co/E5699oomP4 https://t.co/jiKh5my8i8 SeaStar Medical Elutia Inc Tav Airports Not financial advice. Just my opinion.
Switzerland Katılım Mart 2025
204 Takip Edilen27 Takipçiler
@SwissKnifeInv @investingbyGenZ we don't know what will happen but probably it's time to buy
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@agraber13 @investingbyGenZ I wonder what happens if they show more than $1.5B in buybacks for Q1 and higher free cash flow than expected.
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$PYPL: did the thesis quietly change, or did the multiple just catch up?
When I bought $PYPL, my thesis was pretty simple:
- Revenue would grow >5% per year with some optionality to re‑accelerate.
- FCF would grow faster than revenue as efficiency gains kicked in.
- The market would eventually reward that steady execution (plus new products like Ads, Tap‑to‑Pay, etc.) with a higher multiple.
That’s not what happened. Revenue has drifted closer to 0–5%, FCF has been choppier than I expected, and the anticipated efficiency gains never really showed up in a clean, compounding way. The result is a stock now sitting around 8x P/FCF on roughly $5.5–6B of FCF and ~$33B of revenue, which, if I’m honest, doesn’t look obviously unfair for a business growing low‑single‑digits with limited operating leverage.
So I’m starting to think this might just be the new reality for $PYPL unless something changes: a stable but uninspiring franchise that the market values like an ex‑growth financial rather than a compounding fintech. If management can’t convincingly signal either (a) a path back to mid‑high single‑digit revenue growth or (b) a credible plan to structurally lift FCF through efficiency and mix (e.g. Ads ID, Braintree mix, cost work), I’m not sure it deserves much more than ~8–10x FCF.
That’s where I’m at – curious how you see it: is $PYPL now reasonably priced for what it is, or do you still think there’s a credible route to re‑rating from here?
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@investingbyGenZ @SwissKnifeInv fcf is looks like it's growing bro
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@SwissKnifeInv I know this, nothing new. But this assumes they can keep deploying that much to buybacks, and also that the shareprice remains low so they can buy back that many shares
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$snap could give shareholders a 6% dividend just by firing it's CEO
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add $icu to your watchlist! 3.6 million float…. Lots of catalysts due!!!!
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can't be a reality to think like that...
Markets & Mayhem@Mayhem4Markets
"Worrying about money is silly" - Person with trust fund who never worked a day in their life
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$ICU will need to raise capital but even after they do I see a very high multiple possibility in the coming years. The TAM is enormous.
x.com/i/status/20422…
Aloïs Graber@agraber13
@singhlosophy If they get anything together it should go up at least 10x no ?
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@agraber13 @singhlosophy How do you know what the data with or without calcium looks like? Based purely on management
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@badinvestor99 @singhlosophy yes. but if you look at the data with calcium it's great. Dr. Chung could be a normal doctor today but chose to do this because he saw the great data.
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@agraber13 @singhlosophy It literally has failed but was blamed on calcium shortage
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@singhlosophy But does it work? I’m skeptical the benefit is meaningful
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