Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza retweetledi
Qué momento. Qué emocionante y emotivo ver a Yeison López llorando de la alegría junto a su madre, su hermano y su padre. Gracias, Yeison. #ColombiaEnParís2024 🇨🇴
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Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza
24 posts
Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza
@agutieda
Research Economist at Banco de México. Views are my own.
Ciudad de México Katılım Aralık 2018
177 Takip Edilen155 Takipçiler
Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza retweetledi
! SUBCAMPEONES OLÍMPICOS! 🥈🥈
Gracias Colombia 🇨🇴 🏋🏻♀️
¿Cuántos ❤️ por nuestros pesistas?
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@cdbusta Enhorabuena, profe Christiano! Pero no veo rigideces nominales ni una regla de Taylor por ningún lado. Qué brujería es esta?
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Very happy to see this paper out in the JME!
The Long-Run Redistributive Effects of Monetary Policy
You can check it out here 👉 doi.org/10.1016/j.jmon…
Short thread 🧶 about the paper below.
1/5
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@CamargoFelipe1 @JonSteinsson @R2Rsquared 1) is a crucial part of the NK paradigm, but 2) is not. High unemployment can cause lower wages, marginal costs, and inflation. This is different from saying that unemployment is the main source of movements in marginal costs and inflation. See also twitter.com/dandolfa/statu…
David Andolfatto@dandolfa
Ah, the smell of never-ending macro debates in the air. Today's edition: the Phillips curve (PC). There are two notions of PC: [1] statistical; and [2] theoretical. One can plainly see the statistical PC in the data. Sometimes. For example andolfatto.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-ph…
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@agutieda @JonSteinsson @R2Rsquared You are right. But these are not just "assumptions", they are the foundations for the main modern theory we have for inflation.
That is why Blanchard says the relationship from u to π the NKPC is causal. You dont get away from that by simply saying "expectations" can change.
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I am with @R2Rsquared on this. Ideally, disinflation is achieved purely through the inflation expectations and supply shock terms of the Phillips curve. Unfortunately, this doesn’t always work out perfectly. In this sense softening of the economy is a side effect.
Olivier Blanchard@ojblanchard1
1. Looking at Ricardo's answer to my puzzled reaction. I realize that an important difference between the way he and I think. (And, more generally, this difference is behind many discussions in macro. For example, in assessing John Cochrane’s fiscal theory of the price level).
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@CamargoFelipe1 @JonSteinsson @R2Rsquared That expression results from two "assumptions": 1) Inflation is the present value of real marginal costs 2) These are proportional to the unemployment/output gap. If 1) is correct and 2) is not, you can still have inflation going down without a negative output gap.
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@JonSteinsson @R2Rsquared Equating beta to one won't change the fact that you can't have expectations moving independently of where people think the unemployment rate (or the output gap) will go.
If people don't believe in a correction to output caused by monetary policy, how would inflation go down?
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@1954swilliamson What he plots is consistent with the textbook New-Keynesian model, though.
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1. I don't do this in my book. 2. In books where this appears, it's price level on the vertical axis.
Paul Krugman@paulkrugman
Most econ textbooks offer some version of an aggregate demand-aggregate supply framework that looks like this 2/
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@ricco_giovanni @FT But disagreement seems natural in a field where N is small and fixed, and T is short.
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@ricco_giovanni @FT Nice thread. Let me disagree about the diagnostic. We can find 5 papers for each question you pose, each with a different answer. So empirical macro doesn't lack answers; it lacks consensus: the only honest answer to every question is "it depends."
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The @FT leads on the failure of economic forecasting
ft.com/content/e5cff3…
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📢New paper on #SelfEmployment joint with the amazing @juanherreno is now out in the #JME!
We are etremely happy and grateful to see this paper published!
Short 🧵 below with main points.
The paper is open access (ht @UCSDEcon)
Check it out 👇
doi.org/10.1016/j.jmon…
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Our paper is out! This is my first published paper, and I am beyond grateful to my amazing coauthors and mentors.
Iñaki Aldasoro@i_aldasoro
Our article just published at JIE! *The macrofinancial effects of international bank lending on emerging markets*, w/ the amazing @paulabeltrans @fgrinberg & T Mancini-Griffoli Get your free copy at: authors.elsevier.com/a/1geAN5330fA21 Read thread for some goodies for researchers
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So happy that this paper has found such a great home. Special thanks to @SorryToBeKurt, two fantastic referees, @LagakosDavid, @ValerieRamey7, and everyone who gave me great advice on this paper throughout the PhD and beyond!
The Review of Economic Studies@RevEconStudies
.@daniela_vidart uses theory and newly digitized data to show that a key way through which electrification increased female labor force participation in the 1st half of 20th century in the U.S. was by creating labor market opportunities for skilled women. restud.com/paper/human-ca…
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@GaetanoGaballo I'm a big fan of your work, especially your paper with Luigi. Congrats, Gaetano!
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It shifts focus from a traditional firm-centric view to a complementary household-centric view of money non-neutrality and aligns with recent efforts by central banks to better understand the importance of consumers' expectations.
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📢📢📢Thrilled to be awarded an ERC Consolidator Grant for my project "A Learning-from-Prices view of Inflation and Business Cycles"! How do households' inflation perceptions, driven by actual market prices, move the business cycle? More to come!😉#EUfunded #ERCCoG #HECParis
European Research Council (ERC)@ERC_Research
📢 The results of the 2022 ERC Consolidator Grant competition are out: €657 million for 321 researchers. Who has been offered funding? What topics they will investigate? Where will they do their research? Discover the details ➡️ bit.ly/ERCCoG2022Resu… 🇪🇺#EUfunded #ERCCoG
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@IvanWerning But in his view, it was the byproduct of info. frictions resulting in different perceptions of prices. In your model, the disagreement is fundamental, driven by differences between firms' production inputs and HH's consumption basket, and propagates both real and nominal shocks.
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@IvanWerning Interesting paper! Your discussion on disagreement reminded me of Friedman's presidential address, where he argued that the disagreement between households and firms was a source of non-neutrality.
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Don't kid yourself: policy runs on theories (AKA "ideas for how things work").
Famous Keynes quote captures this and I can easily provide many recent examples. We need to interpret the data!
Let me offer a quick theoretical lens on the latest wage growth numbers.
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@t_holden @pontus_rendahl It depends on the model you have in mind. In the standard NKM, the relationship between inflation and real marginal costs is "structural." However, the NKPC relating inflation to output only arises in equilibrium.
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Your monthly reminder:
The Phillips curve is an equilibrium relationship, not a casual one.
To the extent that there is causation in the Phillips curve, it is more likely to run from inflation to the output gap, not the other way round. (See my RRRR paper.)
Greg Ip@greg_ip
Some at the Fed, and its staff, think the output gap and Phillips curve mean inflation still stay high without higher unemployment. Others disagree, focusing on actual prices, wages. @NickTimiraos dissects the bottoms-up vs top-down inflation schools. wsj.com/articles/fed-d…
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@pontus_rendahl I wonder about the usefulness of "core" measures after considering all these indirect effects. For example, energy shocks increase workers' living costs which may, in turn, demand higher wages, leading to an increase in marginal costs and inflation in "non-core" sectors.
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Has anyone done a proper input-output analysis of inflation, to really clean out non-core components? Case in point: the hairdresser I go to just raised prices with 15%. Why? Electricity bills and rents. Yet, that business is considered core.
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@mfariacastro I use Drawboard PDF with my Surface for reading and annotating. It works really well with the Surface pen and you can save and edit pdfs afterwards. I haven’t tried it while teaching with Zoom but I guess you could just share screen and draw in real time.
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To all those who have been teaching online: I am planning on using a Surface Pro 4 to annotate pdf slides. What is the best Windows app to annotate slides and whiteboard? OneNote, Scrble Ink, Nebo were all suggested. Any significant pros and cons to each of these? #EconTwitter
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