lambda retweetledi
The algorithm made me buy a Biltong dryer, and now I’m a very happy boy 🤤🥩
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lambda
4.7K posts
lambda retweetledi
I'm going to borrow this image because I think it looks spectacular
Just so you can see my position in this photonics sector:
Layer 1 - $IQE
Layer 2 - $SIVE
Layer 3 - $AAOI
Layer 4 - $LPKF
Layer 5 - $AEHR
I don't hold this last one anymore, but I used to
I'm looking forward to a good entry price to have all layers covered again with my winning horse out of all of them
Bilaal- BD investing@bdinvestingg
Photonics value chain in 5 layers. The companies building AI’s optical backbone. $AXTI – Compound semiconductor substrates. Small, cyclical AI photonics supplier. $AAOI – Optical transceivers for AI data centers. High risk, high upside. $LITE – Diversified photonics. Stable, slower growth than AAOI. $ASML – Only maker of EUV lithography machines. Irreplaceable monopoly. $ONTO – Semiconductor inspection/metrology tools. Smaller KLAC alternative.
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lambda retweetledi
Coatue CIO of Public Investments Jaimin Rangwalla explains why the market is rewarding AI infrastructure suppliers
..and punishing the hyperscalers buying the shortage:
YTD Return:
Sellers ~107%
Buyers ~4%
"Amazon & Google are in an unusual camp"
Full list:
Sellers of Products in Shortage:
- Broadcom
- Coherent
- Marvell Technology
- GE Vernova
- Lumentum
- Samsung Electronics
- Micron Technology
- NVIDIA
- TSMC
- SK hynix
- Western Digital
- Seagate Technology
- SanDisk
Buyers of Products in Shortage:
- Amazon
- Google
- Meta Platforms
- Oracle
- Microsoft
@coatuemgmt
Molly O’Shea@MollySOShea
NEW: Exclusive Interview with Jaimin Rangwalla, Chief Investment Officer of Public Investments at Coatue In @coatuemgmt's Spring 2026 Investor Update, Jaimin walks through the unexpected winners of the AI cycle: memory, optical, CPUs, & the infrastructure layer quietly outperforming the Mag 7. We cover: - Why Coatue is "following the gigawatts" - Private companies breaking into the global top 25 pre-IPO (OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX) - Cash flow transferring from hyperscalers to AI infrastructure - The $12T funding engine behind the AI buildout - Sellers of shortage vs. buyers of shortage - The Token Economy - The CPU/GPU flip reshaping compute demand - Coatue's $6T+ AI market estimate - Agents launching agents / "1,000 analysts working 24/7" Read the full deck & watch the update replay below 𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒 (00:00) Jaimin Rangwalla, CIO of Public Investments at Coatue (00:56) Inside Coatue HQ (02:48) Investor Update Kickoff (04:36) Mapping the AI Stack (06:02) Why Supply Stays Tight (07:03) How Jaimin's Became CIO (10:43) Private Giants vs Mag 7 (12:40) Market Breadth and Reordering (15:24) Where AI Revenue Comes From (17:04) Tokens and Economy (19:43) Agents Change Everything (21:58) OpenClaw Explained (24:49) Memory Demand Explosion (27:12) Architecture Shifts Ahead (27:24) Agents Gain Memory (27:58) CPU Demand Surge (28:38) CPU GPU Ratio Flip (30:21) Key Chip Players (30:45) Intel Comeback Thesis (31:41) Semis Go Mainstream (33:24) Nvidia Mania and GTC (33:59) Tracking Data Center Buildouts (35:21) Jobs Lost and Created (37:30) Sellers Versus Buyers (40:54) Optical Breakouts (41:27) Bottlenecks Everywhere (44:48) Sentiment Versus Fundamentals (47:10) Handling Volatility (49:17) Finding New Leaders (51:18) Trillion Dollar IPOs (52:48) Risks and Disruptions (55:00) Coatue Growth Story (55:58) Staying Curious to Win
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lambda retweetledi
Mantis Space Plans to Deliver Sunlight Anywhere in Orbit with Power Beaming lasers.
The company just emerged from stealth with a $10M seed round.
As a power infrastructure company, the company claim they can extend a satellite’s life by using optical systems with modern laser technology to beam power to satellites wirelessly and directly to their existing solar arrays.
By enabling satellites to receive power wherever they operate, spacecraft can remain in their most productive orbital positions rather than spending much of their operational life chasing sunlight.
This flexibility can significantly increase mission utilization, extend operational lifetimes, and improve the economic return of satellite systems by 2-3x.
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lambda retweetledi
The AI networking market is expected to grow from $11B in 2025 to $154B in 2028, per Goldman Sachs.
• Copper based: $8B → $34B
• Optics based: $3B → $120B
Investing visuals@InvestingVisual
A breakdown of the photonics value chain and best positioned business: Layer 1: Materials & wafers • $GLW • $AXTI • $IQE • $AIXA • $AMS Layer 2: Core photonic devices • $IPGP • $COHR • $LITE • $LASR • $SIVE • Layer 3: Components & modules • $AAOI • $MTSI • $FN • $VIAV • $LPTH Layer 4: Systems & equipment • $ASML • $BESI • $ASM • $LPKF • $MKS Layer 5: Test, metrology & yield • $CAMT • $FORM • $AEHR • $ONTO • $VIAV
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lambda retweetledi
The Hindenburg Omen is back.
To be fair previous cluster reads over the last 12 months have been at interesting points!
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Let's do it again.
$BTC @ $81,620.00 - 6H - 4.0 G1
TP1: $83,573.66 (RR 1.05)
TP2: $84,776.85 (RR 1.69)
TP3: $86,868.63 (RR 2.82)
SL: No exit without a 6H close below $79,757.43
🤖 Strategy 4 longs look for continuation and generally end in glory or despair.
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lambda retweetledi
We believe $SATA will be the FIRST listed security in US Capital markets history to pay daily dividends.
13% Annualized, PAID DAILY.
This is not a money market fund. It is designed to be better than one.
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lambda retweetledi
Inside an AI server today, the GPUs talk to each other through copper cables and small pluggable optical modules. Starting in the second half of 2026, that wiring gets replaced by lasers built directly into the chip package (CPO). Goldman thinks the market for that goes from roughly 0 to $91 billion inside 18 months.
That part the Serenity has right. What I’d slightly diverge on is who actually captures it. He says US names like Lumentum and Coherent are capped because they have to outgrow their own pluggable revenue getting cannibalized. True.
The usual response is to buy the pure plays i Taiwan, Europe, and Japan that have no legacy book. The cleaner version of that argument is to keep going one layer up. The laser is the visible part. The wafer the laser sits on is the invisible part, and it has zero legacy revenue.
CPO needs meaningfully more of that substrate per socket than plug-ins did. $SOI, which has the near-monopoly on silicon-on-insulator wafers for silicon photonics, still trades at a low multiple (attractive book value) while photonics peers trade at 5-8x sales.
$AXT and $IQE are the same setup on the indium phosphide side. There is also the supply question. Nvidia spent roughly $4 billion between Coherent and Lumentum, which effectively locks up their laser capacity.
Everybody else (AMD, Meta, Ayar, POET, Lightmatter) has to source elsewhere. Sivers is the small independent that catches that overflow.
And the layer nobody talks about is the assembly itself. Co-packaging an optical engine onto a chip is hybrid bonding. BESI just printed a record order quarter at €269.7 million with hybrid-bonding unit orders more than doubled sequentially.
The bottleneck for H2 2026 isn’t whether the optics work, it’s whether anyone in Taiwan can bond them onto the package fast enough.
The date I would put on the calendar is November 27, 2026. That’s when China’s export-control suspension on gallium, germanium, and antimony expires, about 6 weeks before the H2 2027 scale-up window.
If it gets re-imposed, the substrate names re-rate first, before anybody downstream sees a dollar of CPO revenue. Right gold rush. The interesting trade is one layer further up, where there is nothing to cannibalize and there is a date on the wall.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
People wonder why I'm focusing on non-US markets recently. Why? CPO is my #1 thematic long. Markets don't know yet, the sudden paradigm shift in photonics... I was one of the only to frontrun the current supercycle in 2025 w/ $AAOI @ ~$30, $LITE ~$300s, and $AXTI at ~$13 on X.... With the actual receipts and thesis that others can't show. CPO goes from ~$0. To $91 Billion TAM opportunity. In the next 1 1/2 years from GS research. While overall optical market reaches $154B. Many players that had little exposure to the current photonics cycle at all: -> In Europe with high-end lasers design like $SIVE or $SOI with substrates. -> In Taiwan with Foci (3363), Nextronics (8147), Shunsin (6451) and others for optical components and foundries. -> In Japan with laser mass production, substrates, and chemicals. Are suddenly the new dominant players for CPO. As for US players, there's not much exposure. But the existing ones like $LITE, $COHR still get upside from CPO as that's their new growth vector. My contrarian thought process on current players: Is that most of their valuation is priced in huge legacy pluggable revenue that will inevitably face cannibalization over time, so re-rating potential is less unless someone uses leverage. A lot of these new purer play CPO names go from 0 to 100 extremely quickly one mass production starts H2 2026 for scale out (as a revenue bridge) into H2 2027 for scale up (massive growth driver). Markets usually price things in 8-12 months ahead of time too... I have high conviction thematically in my supply chain research despite any market volatility leading up until then.
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@ShardiB2 photonicssssssss >> Cu
dylan ツ@demian_ai
Inside an AI server today, the GPUs talk to each other through copper cables and small pluggable optical modules. Starting in the second half of 2026, that wiring gets replaced by lasers built directly into the chip package (CPO). Goldman thinks the market for that goes from roughly 0 to $91 billion inside 18 months. That part the Serenity has right. What I’d slightly diverge on is who actually captures it. He says US names like Lumentum and Coherent are capped because they have to outgrow their own pluggable revenue getting cannibalized. True. The usual response is to buy the pure plays i Taiwan, Europe, and Japan that have no legacy book. The cleaner version of that argument is to keep going one layer up. The laser is the visible part. The wafer the laser sits on is the invisible part, and it has zero legacy revenue. CPO needs meaningfully more of that substrate per socket than plug-ins did. $SOI, which has the near-monopoly on silicon-on-insulator wafers for silicon photonics, still trades at a low multiple (attractive book value) while photonics peers trade at 5-8x sales. $AXT and $IQE are the same setup on the indium phosphide side. There is also the supply question. Nvidia spent roughly $4 billion between Coherent and Lumentum, which effectively locks up their laser capacity. Everybody else (AMD, Meta, Ayar, POET, Lightmatter) has to source elsewhere. Sivers is the small independent that catches that overflow. And the layer nobody talks about is the assembly itself. Co-packaging an optical engine onto a chip is hybrid bonding. BESI just printed a record order quarter at €269.7 million with hybrid-bonding unit orders more than doubled sequentially. The bottleneck for H2 2026 isn’t whether the optics work, it’s whether anyone in Taiwan can bond them onto the package fast enough. The date I would put on the calendar is November 27, 2026. That’s when China’s export-control suspension on gallium, germanium, and antimony expires, about 6 weeks before the H2 2027 scale-up window. If it gets re-imposed, the substrate names re-rate first, before anybody downstream sees a dollar of CPO revenue. Right gold rush. The interesting trade is one layer further up, where there is nothing to cannibalize and there is a date on the wall.
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lambda retweetledi
Bull of Britain portfolio activity last few weeks
> Sized $DGXX after $CBRS $1B contract -> up 71% in 6 trading days
> $VNP.TO hitting ATH week after week. Best earnings to date. Maintained their guidance. Slow, invincible compounder.
> Bought $MRAM last week Monday after the Samsung squeeze and RAM price hiking up 100%
> Longed $NOK 2 weeks ago on the re-rating amd $NVDA / Anduril news
> Held $AAOI despite every short report and scaremongering, up 300% since I bought back in Feb
> Sized into $ALMU after the $TSEM deal. Now up 170%
$ALMU will become a beta of Tower Semi. So any news will collaterally effect Aeluma.
> Diamond handing every EU Photonic name since the Goldman Sachs and BoA photonics guidance ($SIVE, $IQE, $LPK, $SOI)
> $DOCN reporting best ER since inception -> guided 50% growth yoy (Agentics go brr) -> 100% up
Haven't sold anything as of yet. But I won't be injecting cash either in the current market state.
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lambda retweetledi
China trip off to a bang for $TSLA $AAPL
that's what Xi said
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To answer that question.
I’ll just float some historical data out there with laser chokepoints:
$LITE went from $3B -> $15B -> $80B in 2 years from 2024.
$AAOI went from $770M -> $15B in 1 year from 2025.
$SIVE is $1.6B today in 2026.
There’s not many in the world and lasers are the absolute center of photonics.
Each owned a specific chokepoint from optical architectural shifts.
$LITE for EML.
$AAOI for cw 800g/1.6T pluggable
and now $SIVE for cw CPO.
Nathan@nathanshipley_
@aleabitoreddit So is $SIVE the best play for CPO
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lambda retweetledi
Fun stock i just discovered
No buy or sell suggestion but just something i have not seen before.
$NOTV
$0.25 a share
Market cap: $9M
$500M in revenue 😳
Expecting $1B in revenue in 2030.
Analysis price target: $1.50 (500% up)
Inotiv, Inc. provides nonclinical and analytical drug discovery and development services to the pharmaceutical and medical device industries in the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Discovery and Safety Assessment (DSA) and Research Models and Services (RMS).
Just never seen this before
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lambda retweetledi
This is it.
Everything learned spending millions on longevity.
From: Your Immortal Unc and Auntie.
To: Our Immortal nieces and nephews.
0. Sleep is the world's most powerful drug.
1. Be in your bed for 8 hours
2. Same bedtime every night, any time before midnight
3. Don’t eat right before bed
4. Calm foods for dinner
5. No screens 1 hour before bed
6. Avoid added sugar (be aware it’s in everything)
7. Avoid all things in an American convenience store
8. Avoid fried foods
9. Shoes off at the door
10. Eat whole foods, particularly veggies fruits nuts legumes berries
11. Walk a little after meals or air squats
12. Get your heart rate high routinely
13. Lift heavy things
14. Stretch daily
15. Water pik, floss, brush, tongue scrape, morning and night
16. Make an effort to drink water
17. Get sunlight when you wake up (UV is low)
18. Protect skin in midday sun
19. Stand up straight
20. See at least one friend once a week
21. Avoid plastic where you can (in all things)
22. Circulate air in rooms
23. When stressed, breathe, learn to calm your body
24. Go to the dentist
25. Avoid sitting for long times
26. Protect your hearing, the world is too loud
27. Alcohol is bad for you
28. Finish coffee before noon
29. Avoid bright lights after sunset
30. If obese, look into a GLP
31. Sleep in a cold room
32. Texting while driving is dangerous
33. Turn off all notifications
34. Limit social media use
35. Don’t smoke anything
36. If you struggle to sleep, read a physical book before bed
37. 1 hour before bed have a calm wind down routine: bath, read, light walk, listen to music
38. The body is a clock and loves routine. Have a daily morning and evening schedule.
39. Avoid long distance travel where you can
40. Baby steps first: incorporate new things slowly
41. Do less… most things don’t work.
Bonus points if you get your blood checked.
Start here, it will change your life.
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