Grant Collins

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Grant Collins

Grant Collins

@aimresearchllc

Katılım Ekim 2011
612 Takip Edilen591 Takipçiler
Grant Collins
Grant Collins@aimresearchllc·
@GeorgeSelgin this comment hits the nail on the head. The gov. borrows to expand operations and by borrowing it mitigates the inflationary impact. It doesn’t have to borrow and it doesn’t have to spend. Doing so simply increases its size. The question should be what size government is right?
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George Selgin
George Selgin@GeorgeSelgin·
They are, no less than money creation, devices for increasing the government's command over, or share of, the economies scarce output.
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Grant Collins
Grant Collins@aimresearchllc·
@BobEUnlimited Would you consider slower loan growth, declining money supply, deposit outflows as “some” evidence of tighter monetary policy? Emphasis on some lol. I think we can describe policy as neutral or as some other economist have put it normal.
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Bob Elliott
Bob Elliott@BobEUnlimited·
There is no empirical evidence that monetary policy is tight, despite the case made by the "real raters." GDP at or above potential for almost 2yrs, stocks at highs, spreads at lows, and frothy stuff recently parabolic. No cuts/hikes in '24 px in at ~20% probability looks low.
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Grant Collins
Grant Collins@aimresearchllc·
@businesscycle With labor force participation still below pre pandemic levels and demand still outpacing supply, can we claim this as labor hoarding? Seems like some workers haven't come back to the labor pool
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Grant Collins
Grant Collins@aimresearchllc·
@adamtaggart Inflation lower, yield curve flattens with long end remains high but short end declines, below trend growth but vulnerable to a recession due to continued QT.
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Adam Taggart
Adam Taggart@adamtaggart·
I'm finding more & more divergence among the experts I interview in their 2024 outlooks on these 3 issues: 1. inflation sticky or not? 2. UST yields to fall or not? 3. recession or not? What's your take on each?
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Grant Collins
Grant Collins@aimresearchllc·
So, if only 20% of the unemployed workers have maxed out benefits, why would only 28.9% of the unemployed be receiving benefits? It could possibly be due to a waiting period, or they could be ineligible due to an asset test but it could also be that they are finding new jobs.
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Grant Collins
Grant Collins@aimresearchllc·
If we use that as a basis, many of these current unemployed workers are still receiving benefits. However, those unemployed for longer than 26 weeks likely are not receiving any benefits. The good news is this is a low percentage, 19.8%, but it is rising.
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Grant Collins
Grant Collins@aimresearchllc·
Initial claims shocked me this morning. I was expecting a continued trend in the 260ks. While looking deeper, I found a couple additional measures of employment data that might be helpful. 1. Average Weeks Unemployed and 2. Percent unemployed receiving benefits.
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Grant Collins
Grant Collins@aimresearchllc·
Reserves dropped $74 billion last week as the TGA rebuilds +$174 billion. RRP drops $67 billion.
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Grant Collins
Grant Collins@aimresearchllc·
Initial Claims are unchanged at 264K vs. 264k revised prior. However, continued claims have been falling since April 1,861 vs. 1,759 now.
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Grant Collins
Grant Collins@aimresearchllc·
Single Family starts and permits rebounding. It will be interesting to see how this shows up later in the week in the Conference Board leading economic indicator.
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Grant Collins
Grant Collins@aimresearchllc·
@MTSInsights It makes a strong case for infrastructure spending. I’ve been hearing of excess Covid funding at the state and local levels. Not sure how much is left in Philly but it’s worth looking into.
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MTS Insights
MTS Insights@MTSInsights·
@aimresearchllc I wonder if the Philly survey has been/will be impacted by the I-95 collapse.
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Grant Collins
Grant Collins@aimresearchllc·
NY Empire Manufacturing Survey is still different than the Philly survey. NY activity increased from -31.8 to 6.6, while Philly decreased from -10.4 to -13.7. Employment remained the same while prices declined in NY but remained unchanged in Philly. Manufacturing is stuck.
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Grant Collins
Grant Collins@aimresearchllc·
@YannisLazar Borrowing from the Fed shows stresses in the banking system. To me it's a way for banks to hold onto assets they are not ready to liquidate to meet depositors' claims. It's a duration mismatch that the banks are trying to account for. It could also be a sign of a credit crunch.
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Ioannis Lazaridis
Ioannis Lazaridis@YannisLazar·
@aimresearchllc Thank you, Grant, for sharing valid charts&for your balanced comments. Could you say, please, what are the consequences of borrowing by banks from FED? And how higher rates, for a prolonged period, are hurting banks if they're hedged? SVB isn't a general example, or is it?
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Grant Collins
Grant Collins@aimresearchllc·
On Wednesday we received data on the total amount of borrowing by banks from the Fed. It peaked March 22nd at 296B. Is it all clear in the banking sector? Maybe too soon to tell with rate hikes still on the table. Watch for today's H.8 data release to see deposit flows.
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Grant Collins
Grant Collins@aimresearchllc·
@BobEUnlimited @EPBResearch @toiletkingcap I hope none of them mind me sharing. For context, @Estimize is great at crowdsourcing both economist and market participant estimates. Below are the error rate and percentile accuracy over time for initial claims. 60% accuracy and a 5-6% error rate seem decent to me.
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Bob Elliott
Bob Elliott@BobEUnlimited·
@aimresearchllc @EPBResearch @toiletkingcap The economist estimates for claims kinda suck (hope none of those folks are reading this right now!). And so looks more like they are catching up to the data which has been at a bit higher level for a few months now rather than reflecting predictive ability.
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Grant Collins
Grant Collins@aimresearchllc·
@Ctilbe @EPBResearch I think so. The last report only showed signs of strength in three groups. Gov, Edu/Health, and Mining. With Gov constrained by the new 1% spending cap I imagine that will weaken further. Mining is small. So basically, Health and Education.....
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ToblerX
ToblerX@Ctilbe·
@aimresearchllc @EPBResearch Just shows the Jobs number from last week is a joke. People are taking in multiple jobs and it's skewing that report.
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Grant Collins
Grant Collins@aimresearchllc·
After this morning's surprise in Jobless Claims (+24k above consensus), we have to note that the labor market is cooling faster than anticipated. This is further evident by yesterday's Kansas City Fed Labor Market Indicator which declined for its seventh consecutive month.
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Keşfet

@GeorgeSelgin @BobEUnlimited @businesscycle @adamtaggart @MTSInsights @YannisLazar @elonmusk @BarackObama