Timur

Sekali-kalinya kmaren present ke kumpeni ga bawa atribusi, ga bawa backingan siapa2, ga dibawa sama ordal, ga ada brief mereka siapa, dan mereka ga tau I siapa. Bener2 ngerasain jadi vendor yang cuma bawa barang 7 menit pertama ga digubris sama sekali pas present. Pada sibuk laptopan sendiri Langsung I cut ke demo. Baru pada tertarik. Untung produk aing emang sebagus itu Tapi tetep dicecer banget, jauh lebih banyak daripada kalo mereka tau kita siapa Kayanya next time kalo jualan bakal at least bawa Patek Philippe

layak presiden e prabowo wong marapthon ae ditangisi🤣

@dedewizard19 Infokan yg bilang bottom pakde

Banyak saham yg mantul di supportnya hari ini, pertanda postif. Tapi apakah udah bottom $IHSG? BELUM GAIS BELUM.

🇮🇩 Rupiah depreciated back to 17,700/USD despite a “bazooka” interest rate hike of 50bps this week. Our thesis remains intact. A monetary move is insufficient (or somewhat irrelevant) because the main catalyst to outflows is the lack of fiscal credibility and distrust to policy direction. Fun fact: The combined net foreign inflows from Indonesian equity (IHSG) and bond markets (SRBI + SBN) reached IDR 25 trillion this year, suggesting that most of the capital flight come from domestic. Will they care about an interest rate increase? Unlikely

Miner biasanya jual dengan asumsi $100/ton yang transaksinya bisa menggunakan account di Singapore, Zimbabwe, Swiss, atau dimanapun, yang dimana duitnya ndak parkir di Indonesia. Sehingga ketika transaksi terjadi tidak ada nilai lebih buat pemerintah selain pajak dan pungutan biasa. Kalo sekarang, miner jual $100/ton yang dimana harus menggunakan HIMBARA, dan duit $100 tersebut harus parkir di Indonesia selama 12 bulan. Jadi devisa yang selama ini bocor ke luar sekarang terkunci di dalam. Buat negara cukup menguntungkan. Buat miner, ada cost baru yang sebelumnya ndak ada. Sulit dan Makjang, tapi paling nggak gue cukup puas karna sekarang uangnya ngga parkir lagi di Singapure.

"Claude usage limit reached. Your limit will reset at 3:30 PM"

Hormuz situation but with Indonesian palm oil with Prabowos hand on the trigger 🤣

Thomas Tuchel - no man has ever been more Chels

You think he was given the name Tucheliban for shits and giggles when he was at Chelsea, this guy is a live o terrorist bro

Malam ini temanya "Keluh Kesah Warga DCN" Saya kira sepi dan udah pada pensi ternyata masih rame, semangat banget belajarnya. Thanks all.

🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Prabowo Subianto out as President of Indonesia by...? polymarket.com/event/prabowo-…

Prajogo Pangestu on RCTI: "You could double the taxes I pay, and it's not gonna help that teacher in Maluku. I promise you. Since the incremental budget will go to MBG"

The Obituary, As Usual, Is Premature. (Read the Plumbing, not the Panic!) As @Cheytax_1 flagged, X timeline suddenly thick with Macro Reads, most engineered for Doom Bait, distorting proper signal. Every twelve years Indonesia is declared finished. 1998. 2013. Now 2026. The reading is reliably wrong, this is not a default event. Hardly. It is a Market Premia Repricing, made uglier by improper Govt Navigation. But should capable hands of Jakarta wake up, easily Passable. For the time now that it is not, we read, we positioned. Below : The Premises : Jakarta would remain Logical and Current, all tools at their potent disposal (Yes Even Cutting Expenses is a tool) Exchange Rates, and Real Rate Differential. Is means of shock absorbing. Even measured depreciation is preferrable to exhausting import cover ratio. Coming out of the shock, cycle begin anew. Business as usual, Indo was operating under this macro anchor. In SMI era. Picture 1 - The Gravitational Field Picture 2 - The Pragmatic Opportunity 3 year forward 10Y USD swap rate at 4.2% sits a hair below the 4.4% post 2013Taper peak meaning the market priced higher for longer not as a cycle but as new resting heart rate of dollar liquidity. For Indonesia this matters in every rupiah of sovereign refinancing, every dollar of corporate rollover, every BI reserve calculation now lives under a permanent ~150bp uplift in the global riskfree rate versus the 2010s. The "free money" world that incubated Indonesia's foreign-investor SBN share is gone, 14% presence now to the peak of 39,% back then. the forwards say it is not coming back any soon. EM/US fair value gap at +1.3%, but Indonesia having wider premia asked is with reason. IndoGB is generously priced versus fair value, because fair value itself has deteriorated: fiscal trajectory, capital account outflow, reserve drawdown, and BI that held 4.75% since October not out of conviction while defending through FX. The carry is real. Our "fair value" anchor moves. The dissonance and finance plumbing : Onshore INDOGB Comrades, Favor belly of the curve, not long end. The fiscal supply is structural; The 5-7Y sector gives most of the carry. Timing. optionality on BI's reaction function. If BI hikes 25bp next week, another 25-50bp post fuel hikes. front end shall reprice and IndoGB curve bear flattens, Position for the curve shape. Three rules for this cycle. One: do not confuse repricing with default. Two: do not confuse fiscal drift with collapse. Three: do not confuse a noisy timeline with a thesis. Jakarta has tools, history, and capable hands waiting to be used. Onshore, we earn the carry, shorten the duration, and wait for the curve to do the work. Pragmatism is alpha when everyone else is selling doom poetry.

Makjang hike 50bps gaada harga dirinya

Klo mau satu pintu skalianin bikin commodity exchangenya. 50% perdagangan coal seaborne itu dari Indonesia 70% nikel dunia dari Indonesia 60% produksi minyak sawit dari Indonesia Top 2 produsen timah dunia Tapi kita gak punya price mechanism mandiri dan ngikutin pricing London, US, China, Malaysia, dan Australia.

Soal pembentukan badan baru yg akomodir ekspor komoditas pendapatku setuju. Sebenernya ini udah lumrah di berbagai negara, cina ada cofco, Malaysia mpob, dll. Yang buat respon market negatif menurutku: - buat margin company turun - fleksibilitas berkurang - tambahan aturan birokrasi Tapi kalau ini berhasil ada manfaat yang didapat: - devisa naik - harga komoditas terkontrol - punya bargaining power di international trade - mata uang bisa lebih stabil Dalam pidato pak Presiden juga singgung ada kerugian negara dari under invoice. Dari pov asing tidak suka karena harga sawit, nikel bisa jadi lebih mahal karena Indonesia bargaining power.

RI1 said it. Straight up. Economy was mismanaged. That's not a small thing to say from that podium. The market asked for transparency. It got it, maybe more than it expected. Three things came out of that speech worth sitting with: One, the underinvoicing problem is being addressed. Routing exports through a single BUMN-controlled door is blunt instrument policy, but at least it signals the revenue leakage is being taken seriously. Two, Indonesia setting its own commodity reference prices is bold. It can work if the pricing is credible and consistent. If not, it just becomes another reason for buyers to route around you. The market will watch the execution closely. Three, and this is the one people will underestimate, he was transparent. After days of silence and noise, a leader standing up and saying "we got this wrong" is not nothing. That takes political will. Markets respect clarity even when the message is uncomfortable. Pros and cons on the policy substance. But on communication, this is exactly what was needed. God bless Indonesia. Now let's see the follow through.

hiring personal assistant - salary 12jt - area malang (jatim) jobdesknya cukup 1 : mencarikan saya kerja yang gajinya 80jt

@ecommurz *uhuk mungkin market lagi nanya: "ini yg gratis2 duitnya dari mana?" (menurut keyakinan saya)

Tidak separah 1930????? Itu rupiah menguap dalam setahun Gw di Mei 1998 stuck di jalan tol dalkot 10 jam padahal traffic saat itu jauh lebih rendah drpd taun skrg Bokap gw kerja di siang hari dan siskamling pas malamnya biar gak kena jarah Sampe nulis “RUMAH MILIK PRIBUMI” biar gak dijarah Ngeliat langsung bank rush orang2 antri di bank Saham Bluechip di Indonesia banyak yang ekuitas negatif di tahun 1998-1999, dah kayak BUMI sebelum kuasi, karena lossnya sangat dahsyat Penjarahan, mall dibakar, insiden trisakti, dll Pernah gak lu hampir setengah temen di kelas lu bapaknya jadi pengangguran dalam beberapa bulan? Cicilan rumah naik 5-7x dalam setahun Disitu titik balik industrialisasi Indonesia. Klo lo ngobrol sama boomers yg skrg jadi supir taxi atau apapun banyak kisah mereka itu dlu pegawai pabrik yang kena PHK trus pabriknya tutup dan arah ekonomi indonesia gak manufacturing lagi dan tergantikan oleh anak muda jadi mereka kehilangan pekerjaan mereka for good Gw gak ngalamin krisis 1930 di US tp gw gak akan berani bilang klo 1998 itu gak separah great depression. Jangan pernah TAKE FOR GRANTED kalau kita berhasil bounce back stronger dari krismon 1998