Aakash Gupta@aakashgupta
Devin's numbers just came out. And they're wild.
$1 million in ARR in September 2024. $445 million run rate today. Usage doubling every eight weeks.
Cursor held the all-time SaaS record at $1M to $100M in 12 months. Devin crossed that line in roughly 10. Cursor reached $100M through 360,000 individual developers at $276 ACV. Devin reached it through the US Army, Goldman Sachs, Mercedes-Benz, Citi, Dell, Cisco, and Palantir. The United States military pays production rates for an autonomous coding agent.
Cognition is now raising at $25 billion. That's 56x run rate. Cursor cleared $9.9B at a similar multiple last May, and the multiple held because the curve hadn't bent. The unusual part isn't the price. The unusual part is that the doubling is still happening at $445M.
The buried number is the burn. Cognition has spent under $20 million cumulatively since founding two years ago. Most Series B companies spend that in a single year. Devin's $445 million was built on Series A money.
Then the Windsurf paragraph. Google paid $2.4 billion in licensing fees in July to pull Windsurf's founders out the door. The remaining company sold to Cognition inside 72 hours for a fraction of that. Combined enterprise ARR rose more than 30% in seven weeks post-close. Less than 5% customer overlap pre-acquisition. Google paid two and a half billion dollars to hand Cognition the IDE distribution layer.
In March 2024, independent testers said Devin completed 3 of 20 tasks. The internet called it a fake demo.
Two years later, that product codes for the US Army.