jerome albertini

@nntaleb @MacleodFinance Yep, the West is facing harsh chrysalid times…..

In 1973, the oil embargo lasted 5m & caused a decade of stagflation. The world was not globalized & things were sourced locally. 1) Today the ENERGY CONTENT of products around you is much much higher than 1973. 2) The West has too much DEBT so impossible to fight stagflation.

@robin_j_brooks Think 70’s ups and downs from now on…..

Gold is now down 15% from before war with Iran began. This is the biggest challenge so far to the debasement trade. I've become a convert to this trade and think it's driven by reckless fiscal policy across much of the G10. But this drawdown is large... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-gold-no-l…

@biancoresearch @C_Barraud Boots on the ground in Karg island, the financial aorta of the regime……. should be next. Trump can’t destroy Iran’s infrastructure, it is counterproductive it seems.

Question for those who think Trump will TACO on Iran: what exactly does that look like? Declare victory and pull out? Then what? Iran walks away with de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most important energy chokepoint. That is not peace. That is Tehran holding a veto over the global economy. They would have the power to disrupt flows, keep oil prices elevated, punish the West, and extract concessions. And once you TACO under those conditions, the risk of a wider regional war probably goes up, not down, because Iran’s neighbors will not accept that new reality. If you want markets to recover and crude to settle down, the answer is not a face-saving exit. It is taking away Iran’s ability to coerce traffic through Hormuz. Until that changes, the risk premium stays.

In case you have not been keeping score the last 36 hours ...

@unusual_whales Welcome to AI chrysalid times…….machines will do most of the alienating jobs humans used to do…….a change in social contracts worldwide is now inevitable. Progress folks, progress……

Powell: "The thing a good number of people on the committee are concerned about is the very very low level of job creation. If you adjust what has been the trend job creation over the past 6 months for what we think is the overstatement due to overcounting, effectively there is 0 net job creation in the private sector"

@LynAldenContact Trump and his ‘ poker bluffs’ moves ……. a political governing theory in learned from Russia…….’hypernormalized’ video by BBC Adam Curtis explained it all a few years back….. watch it folks as it did wonders for him, took him to the presidency twice.

Writing any sort of macro research report is certainly on hard mode these days.

@charliebilello They had to at some point…….

All 7 members of the Magnificent Seven are down on the year and underperforming the average stock in the S&P 500.

Oil shock, weakening economy, higher inflation... What 4-letter word did well in this stagflationary environment in the 1970s? ;-{)}

@AndreasSteno Greater Depression it will be called…….

Been looking forward to a 1929 depression comparison

@duediligenceguy Iran gov is on survival mode, it can’t compromise.

Serious question: Does anyone think the regime in Iran will give in to this threat?

@great_martis A wild decade again on the way……. except this time i expect social unrests in the West.

GOLD 1970s vs TODAY.✨ The 1970s gold market unfolded against a backdrop of post-WWII monetary expansion, low rates, and eventual oil shocks that fuelled stagflation, commodity chaos, and wild equity volatility. The Dow Jones endured a lost decade of sideways-to-down performance with repeated 30-50% swings that thrilled traders but tormented long-term investors. Gold surged dramatically on inflation panic, only to suffer a severe 40-50% drawdown from late 1974 to mid-1976, bottoming near $100/oz. Many declared gold dead at that low...yet it then exploded higher, multiplying roughly 8x to over $800 by 1980 as the next crisis wave hit. Today’s environment echoes those themes even more closely than before. We’ve seen a multi-decade explosion in money supply driven by relentless central-bank interventions, far larger debt burdens, and yields now stirring from a long slumber in dramatic fashion. Fresh oil supply risks and widespread commodity disruptions amplify the 1970s parallels, while recent gold strength to multi-year highs has been propelled by persistent inflation fears, geopolitical tension, and uncertainty..classic stagflation signals. Sharp pullbacks of 8-12% or more in short windows feel familiar, yet a repeat of that deep 40-50% correction seems less likely now because central-bank backstops are vastly stronger and global debt levels are vastly greater. What looks probable instead is wild equity-market volatility reminiscent of the 1970s, with gold correcting seems temporary even if more downside is seen in the near term. Over the longer horizon, however, the current moves will likely appear modest compared to what could unfold if the powder keg fully ignites...the upside in gold could dwarf even the remarkable 1970s rally. Yours truly, The Great Martis✨

@michaeljburry Agreed sir. Most people don’t want to face the obvious Why? Because when an ‘old’ system must cyclically die, old ways of thinking prevail during the process. Until the inevitable becomes visible, is finally experienced. Are you experienced ? is a classic behavioral human trait

What really matters to the market and the US economy is not the Strait of Hormuz.

@duediligenceguy And fail. Nobody can escape, avoid the Laws of Economics at play. Redirecting a Nation on a better footing takes time, grit and smarts. Let s enjoy the process are we are now neck deep in it all. A lot of investors will be wiped out, a few will grasp it well. Darwin Law.

@albertacce Well, he'll try...

Knock, knock... (I'm NOT recommending any of these stocks—my point is about the sector: Did the World suddenly stop needing metals?)

@felixprehn Well explained, smart , thinking people know how to discern well, nothing new here. Just leave the herd growing some by ‘experiencing’ firsthand their mistakes… Are you experienced? If we want change in this world we must let the ‘old ways’ unleash the Forces of Necessity !!!

The United States government is $36 trillion in debt and the currency hasn't collapsed. Every economics textbook says that's impossible. The reason it hasn't happened is a deal cut in 1974 that most Americans have never heard of. The USA promised Saudi Arabia unlimited military protection. In exchange, the Saudis agreed to sell every barrel of oil on earth in US dollars ONLY. Overnight, every country on the planet became a forced buyer of American currency... That artificial demand has subsidized your mortgage rate, inflated your stock portfolio, and funded two decades of American wars. All without a single vote from any citizen in any country. For the first time since 1974, the system is cracking. And the investors who understand what's happening are positioning right now while everyone else doesn't even know what the petrodollar is. And right now it's creating one of the best asymmetric investment setups of the decade. I've talked to institutional allocators who build their entire macro thesis around petrodollar flows. Meanwhile most retail investors couldn't define the term if you asked them. That mismatch between who understands the system and who's blindly riding it is where the real asymmetry lives. Every oil-importing country on earth is forced to accumulate US dollars before they can buy energy. Those excess dollars get parked in US Treasury bonds. Trillions per year, flowing into American government debt, not because it's the best investment, but because the system requires it. That forced demand is what lets the US borrow at rates no other nation gets. Cheap government borrowing pushes capital into stocks, real estate, risk assets. The entire post-1970s US bull market has petrodollar fingerprints on it. If you've ever wondered why US equities have outperformed every other market for fifty straight years, this is a massive part of the answer. And if you've never factored it into your portfolio thesis, you've been investing on top of a system you don't understand. That matters now because the system is fracturing for the first time. Saudi Arabia, the country that started the whole system, is openly discussing pricing oil in other currencies. China and Russia are settling trades in yuan and rubles. India is paying for Russian crude in rupees. The dollar's share of global reserves dropped from 72% to 57%, the lowest since 1994. Central banks are dumping dollars for physical gold at the fastest pace since the 1960s. When central bankers swap their own paper for metal, they're showing you exactly where they think this ends. Understanding this actually gives you an edge over the vast majority of market participants, and the reason is simple: timing. Most people will read about dedollarization in a headline three years from now and panic sell. The institutional money is already repositioning. The difference between those two groups, the ones who see it coming and the ones who react after the fact, is the difference between compounding wealth through a transition and giving it back. Every major currency regime shift in the last century created a massive wealth transfer. When the gold standard ended in 1971, investors holding gold went from $35 to $850 per ounce over the next decade. When the Asian currency crisis hit in 1997, investors positioned in dollars beforehand captured 40-60% discounts on Asian assets. The investors who understood the system change BEFORE it showed up in prices made fortunes. The ones who read about it in the newspaper lost them. The same playbook applies now. Gold and miners. Central banks are front-running this trade right now. Gold went from $1,800 to over $5,100 in three years. The miners (GDX) are still trading at one of the widest discounts to spot gold in two decades. When that discount has compressed historically, GDX doubled within 18 months. The gold price reflects the macro fear. The miner discount reflects the fact that retail hasn't connected the dots yet. That gap is the opportunity. Commodities. Oil, copper, uranium, agriculture. All priced in dollars. A weaker dollar pushes commodity prices higher in dollar terms even without a supply change. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) mines the copper that every AI data center and electrical grid expansion requires. Cameco (CCJ) produces the uranium that 34 countries just pledged to triple capacity for. These aren't speculative. They're structural demand stories priced in a weakening currency. Short-duration over long-duration bonds. BIL pays 4.5% with zero duration risk. Buffett is parking $344 billion here. If fewer foreign governments buy Treasuries and the $28 trillion refinancing wall forces higher yields, long bonds get destroyed. Anyone still holding TLT is on the wrong side of this trade. Stay short on the curve and you earn yield while keeping dry powder for the dislocations ahead. Energy independence plays. Countries breaking free from the petrodollar need domestic energy before they can stop accumulating dollars. Nuclear, LNG infrastructure, battery storage. Every nation trying to ditch the dollar has to solve its own power supply first, and they're all scrambling to do it at the same time. The companies building that infrastructure are sitting at the intersection of the two biggest macro trends of the next twenty years: dedollarization and the energy transition. The investors I respect most are the ones who understand which macro forces are driving capital flows across entire sectors, and position themselves in the path of that money before it arrives. That's the difference between trading and investing. Most retail investors will read this, find it interesting, and go right back to picking stocks off a newsletter. The ones who actually build wealth through macro shifts like this have a framework for translating what they understand into positions. That's what I teach in my free weekly session. Signup in bio

@duediligenceguy Also Trump posts are all about reassuring the markets…… the arts of deception he knows, he strives on it…… everybody should watch that video ‘ hypernormalized’ by Adam Curtis, he explains the techniques Trump has copied from the Russian ones. Also the series on Benito M helps

If the plan is to declare victory, withdraw, and leave others to clean up the mess... It would seem necessary to take Kharg Island first—assuming that would indeed force the Iranian regime to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

@duediligenceguy Follow the Iran gov money trail = Karg Taking it is a capitulation move he must try as now regime change is indeed key. Unless Iran gives has ‘funding’ allies …….. The postponment of the China trip is interesting in that prospect. Thucydides trap at play from now on…

@LukeGromen Exactly.Anyway it s a History making cyclical affair, as always. For things to truly, systemically change, old ways of thinking, behaving, doing must show their inevitable limits. Such are the present Times, they are changin’ ! No short term pain No long term gain Natural Law

If I wanted to discredit US neocons & their foreign sponsors for a generation, I would give them exactly what they have always wanted: A big war with Iran, at their urging… …that leads directly to a collapse of global financial markets, the banking system, and the economy.

@elerianm Not a threat…….. just a cyclical, historical, inevitable change of paradigm unfolding…… no short term pain no long term gain Law……green energies, fusion will benefit …… Times they are changin’ sir…….don’t think ‘old world’ refusing to die, think ‘new world’ birthing.

Consensus is shifting, and rightly so: This third week of the war has fueled a shift from a short-term energy disruption to long-term structural damage. With that, the broader fallout—also marked by the non-linear risks associated with tipping points and multiple equilibrium dynamics—poses an increasing threat to global economic wellbeing and financial stability. #economy #energy #markets #middleeastwar

@burrytracker Different times, different set up……..USA was in better shape and China was 22 years ‘younger’…….also we are at the end of a long term cycle, so an hegemonic reckoning is at a faster pace now. Forces of Necessity unleashed…..huge systemic changes ahead on many fronts.

22 years ago today, the US invaded Iraq And just like the Iran v Israel situation, everyone expected a market crash What happened after the invasion: • S&P 500 bottomed on March 11, nine days before the invasion • By year-end the S&P was up 22% • Halliburton up 36% that year • Oil dropped from $37 to $25 as the "war premium" vanished The S&P did a V-recovery before a single boot hit the ground

@AndreasSteno Dude, dwell deeper and think : Venezuela, Iran, Cuba ……. old adversaries, Chinese allies …….coupled with the USA hegemonic decline ……Trump is trying his own bullish ways, Benito style, to reverse a cyclical inevitability. Read G Allison ‘the Thucydides trap’ and think !!

Less than 12 months ago, we were told to show independence and resist U.S. intervention in Iraq. 
Now, we’re being lectured that we need to participate in Iran by the very same people. Which is it? This is the most amateurish administration in modern history.