Alejandro Chavez

I'm updating my assumptions on $DLO post earnings yesterday. My previous basic (and conservative) assumptions give a 3.3x (see quoted post). I think that's too conservative. TPV growth in FY26 is expected to be 55%. I originally said a CAGR of 25% was realistic which would get us to $100B TPV by 2030. I think we should be looking at ~28% CAGR which gets us to $140.5B in TPV by 2030. My original take rate was 2.5% in 2030. I think that remains fair. We can look more into this if I decide to get a lot more specific but there's so much back and forth on this. Likely we see take rates continue to decline a bit...before potentially stabilizing or expanding down the road but what exactly that number is I think is quite hard to gauge. Conservatively, 2.3% is more than fair. If anything, it's probably too low. 2.3% take rate on $140.5B gives $3.23B in revenue in 2030. FCF margins still are at 30% guided... so 30% on $3.23B in revs gives $969M in FCF (my previous assumptions gave $750M). With a fairly conservative 15x FCF multiple on $969M you have a $14.5B valuation compared to a $3.37B valuation today. Conservative? Maybe. Maybe not. Unrealistic? Most definitely not.

$DLO Q4 Earnings Report is out. Revenue of $337.9M vs. $296.1M est. 🟢 Adj. EBITDA of $78.4M vs. $76.9M est. 🟢 EPS of $0.18 vs. $0.18 est. FCF of $64.7M, +100% YoY TPV growth at 70% YoY 🤯 2026 outlook: TPV growth of 50-60% YoY Gross Profit growth of 22.5-27.5% YoY Operating Profit growth of 27.5-32.5% YoY ANNOUNCES $300M BUYBACK PROGRAM EXPECTED DIVIDEND PAYMENT OF $57M

$DLO | DLocal Limited, Q4-2025 Earning Report

$MELI is such an obvious buy. The reason given by the JPMorgan analyst is nothing new. The LatAm trio $NU $DLO and Mercadolibre are going to crush it over the coming years.