Alexander Markl

With oil & rates ripping, markets are exerting maximum pressure on Trump, leading to Iran having max leverage. Binary reaction function from here: • Quasi withdrawal with a weak deal (e.g. US Navy 'helps' secure strait & us, iran share profits lol) • Military escalation -> multi-month battle for strait control, destruction of energy infra -> global recession. Feels like we'll get a resolution this week. don't see trump having the balls to just sit through $120 oil and US 10yr at 4.8-5% this week without one of the two. 80/20 odds for a weak deal imo.

@NashRate @orderx thinking the same. market propped up by mstr. once equities sneeze, it's freefall.

@orderx i think headed back to 60s unfortunately

The OrderX $BTC Update: 1️⃣ ETF Flows: From May 7-12 we have seen net ETF flows of -$620.2M. This is the primary sell-side pressure currently pinning the $81k handle. 2️⃣ The $STRC Engine: While ETFs sell, the STRC-driven engine has absorbed ~5,000 BTC this week. This is a "Private Bid vs. Public Ask" regime. 3️⃣ The CPI Vol Crush: CPI was the binary event. Because $82k didn't snap, the IV-RV spread is being harvested. ATM Vol is bleeding as the market expects more of a sideways grind. 4️⃣ The $80k negative gamma wall: Spot is $81k, but the Gamma profile shows a massive Negative Gamma ledge at $80k. If the $STRC bid tires, the dealer hedging at $80k will turn a dip into a mechanical waterfall. The OrderX Verdict: We are in a "Structural Standoff." $82k is the wall; $80k is the trapdoor. Shorting the front-end Vol while the $80k pin holds is the "carry" play. Skew and low vol still make holding convexity attractive. Data: @FarsideUK @STRC_live #BTC #Options #Volatility #OrderXAI #STRC #ETFflows

Great summary of last week's crypto price action

@orderx @Mringz great analysis!

@orderx 🔥

What’s your biggest takeaway from last week’s vol reset? Drop it below 👇 (And if you’re an allocator or alpha hunter tired of 10+ tabs, check OrderX at orderx.com)

BTC Options Weekly: $80k Gamma Pin, Volatility Reset & VRP Harvest – OrderX Post-Mortem If you thought last week was quiet in crypto, the options tape told a different story. A masterclass in market mechanics: from coiled-spring compression → bearish fat-tail scare → massive weekend vol crush. Delta-neutral isn’t just a strategy. It’s a lifestyle. Thread 🧵 x.com/i/article/2051….

@EricBalchunas red always wins

Had 30min to kill bf leaving hotel, went to casino put $60 on red. Won. Proceeded to lose that $60 but then got up and left w my original $60. I am a casino’s worst nightmare.

@satoshiheist you either wait for 50s or higher and a narrative. can play the range but not sure if worth the stress.

@alex_markl Yep. Maybe we get the play we were both thinking about slightly lower.. I think it depends how we get there. Short side feels crowded but has been paying for like… 5-6 months now.

Positioned for a squeeze up this week

@satoshiheist yup i bailed like 2 hours later 😅 always really obvious flow when the sellers step in again

@alex_markl I inversed it. Shouldn’t get smacked down like that on a proper squeeze

Can't even fathom what a dumb take this is. Markets are forward-looking, yes. But 5-10 years is an eternity, especially in crypto where markets rarely price in more than a couple months of flows.

This kind of price action - late shorts getting aggressive into tiny bounces - after the market has already corrected - usually happens right before a trend change.

@Mringz let‘s see if market can defend this level despite whale spot dumping since Saturday. If we trade above there after US session tmrw, time to long your longs.

Looks like Mondays Low @$68.3k going to be a key infliction point for $BTC. Lower target $66k. Upper target $71k.

Would be poetic if this guy revenge selling after losing hundreds of millions on perps is a local bottom. Markets tend to be poetic at times.

Shorts getting quite aggressive after this Saylor buy announcement. If spot buyers step in next week, there's fuel for a sizable squeeze.

@qthomp so.. up or down?

Here's a wild crypto price action thought. What if Trump was all a red herring/mirage for Bitcoin? Yes there have been some positives like regulatory improvements, but there's also been tons of negatives like siphoning billions from the industry and extreme capital misallocation to DATs, scams and grift schemes. Maybe the path under a Kamala presidency resulted in a more muted short-term but that could have helped to enforce higher quality building and investment long-term. Ultimately the macro and secular forces rule all so maybe the paths end up converging later this year. Who knows? I sure don't. But I like to keep an open mind to all possible explanations. A humble approach to markets is better than a hubris one.

VCs love to be like “yeah hedge fund guys may be smarter but at least I make less money”

Quantum FUD: Why OG Bitcoin holders might sell billions over a 0.1% risk

Transferring our experience in digital asset trading and financial markets into actionable alpha and market plays. 👨‍💻 Check us out below ⬇️ Excited to share our market insights with you all!

I’m excited to announce Price Discovery - a bi-weekly crypto markets podcast. By traders, for traders. We'll be cutting through the noise, sharing as much actionable insights and alpha as possible. Don't miss it!

@DonAlt MON, richtig? ;)

There is one coin I'm excited to dip buy Been a while since that's been the case I've got a really really dumb thesis for it I'll let you know what it is once I've done so