alex schultz 🏳️‍🌈

may London never lose the standing outside the pub on the streets in the summer culture

I think there's a slow, growing realization that "the model will fix it all, and if not the next one will, so all you can do is to wait, there's no way to compete" is bullshit. It seems obvious to me that there are, and will continue to be, many opportunities in building companies that can leverage ("scaffold") AI models to address all sorts of problems in sectors and contexts that they know best. This is efficient even in the face of growing capabilities, for the same reason as it remains more cost effective for a model to call on a calculator rather than to try to resolve the problem internally. Some reasons for this are proprietary data flows, regulatory needs, deep integration with crusty legacy systems, customer trust earned over time, and tacit knowledge. So to be clear this is not a story about thin wrapper around an API - shallow/fake specialization gets eaten ofc. People focus on labs because that's sexy, and to be clear they'll continue to be, and I don't think you'll see thousands of companies investing that kind of capex; but I think a big part of the story (and value creation) will look like the nameless businesses that never get discussed on social media, by journalists or commentators. This is great news for entrepreneurship and shaking up incumbents, and bad news if your view of the world is "the eye of Sauron will simply ingest everything, all that is left is the zero sum fight for power and escaping the permanent underclass". On the other hand I expect lots of bubbly dynamics and failing businesses and questionable commercial ventures (always has been etc), partly because the territory is still so uncertain that many can still make a quick buck while VCs are in (temporary) Opus psychosis mode. But this too shall pass.

One of many MANY alarming examples of what’s to come. Why isn’t there work on regulation or even attempt at some sort of control regime, domestic and international, on what is likely to be the most powerful and unpredictable weapon ever created? Just oh well no stopping it?

If Gemma 4 comes out 5 years ago, the entire world thinks it’s AGI Today you can run it locally for free on a Mac Mini God handed us literal magic and completely democratized it Don’t take this for granted

"The most successful consumer apps didn't rely on paid advertising to scale!" When unit economics support profitable user acquisition, *not* pursuing advertising leaves money on the table.

Almost every AI power user I know is MORE stressed and busier after using AI, not less What people thought AI would do: 10x productivity so that we can finish work earlier & relax more What it’s actually doing: 10x productivity so that we end up with 20x more things to do cos of the sheer possibilities