Ameri

@CKCapitalxx Subscribed

Why not drop me a follow? Last week alone I gave you all these plays for free and subs got in early. $AMPG brought 90% gains $OPTX brought 50% gains $HLIT brought 30% gains $INFQ brought 20% gains All in 1 week. Who listened?

@michaelsikand @BryzonX @citrini @CKCapitalxx EV/EBIDTA is too high for this sector

I made a high conviction trade into $HLIT on Friday. Then I spent the long weekend doing the dive. When I first researched $HLIT back in March, I didn't see the story. There wasn't a laser or GPU to point at. But thanks to traders like @BryzonX, @citrini, @CKCapitalxx, and @kevinxu it finally clicked. The thing that flipped me wasn't the 43% quarter. It was realizing the moat isn't just 95% market share, it's time. $HLIT's cOS runs the broadband network for basically every major cable operator. To rip Harmonic out, an operator has to run an 18-24 month certification on a replacement before they can even start the switch. Harmonic owns this market into 2028 at the earliest, which happens to be the exact window the whole industry is forced to spend through its biggest upgrade cycle ever. This market isn't hard to win. It's closed. At first glance, two operators are a material risk at over half of revenue. But on a further look, the business outside those two is growing 78% and just became the majority of bookings for the first time. The single biggest reason to avoid this name is quietly dissolving. Overall, this cable upgrade isn't some manufactured narrative, it's a legitimate multi year supercycle, and it's undeniably AI adjacent. The same agentic AI and home compute pulling more and more bandwidth through these networks is exactly what forces the spend. $HLIT is the clearest pure play winner of it, and it's still trading in the low 20s forward on FY2027. For a critical infra software monopoly growing 43% yoy, it's still cheap. Kawz and I just published a short, digestible research report on $HLIT to share our conviction on Substack. It's all free aside from our model, PTs, and comps analysis. Average cost $15.76. Also holding some 10/16s $17.5C's. DYOR. NFA.

@CKCapitalxx EV/EVIdTA too expensive

Imagine paying $500,000 for a cable box you have to replace every 4 years. Now imagine someone walks up and says I have a software solution for a fraction of that. No hardware. No replacement cycles. Updates happen remotely. Scale with a license not a truck roll. That is the entire $HLIT pitch. And cable operators are switching as fast as they possibly can. $582 million in backlog. Revenue up 43% last quarter. Greater than 95% market share. Every major US cable operator already a customer. The math sells itself.

@DrVish355 Would have to disagree. I think there are good and bad everywhere.

Why are Indian doctors better than most American doctors?

@Astro2388 @KevInvestingYT I’m down. How do I join?

@ameritradox @KevInvestingYT You could come swing trade options with us. Lots of 9-5er guys who can’t sit and manage trades all day. We don’t focus on day trading and Hamilton is probably one of the most knowledgeable dudes I’ve heard in the trading space

I've made close to $1,000,000 trading across multiple accounts in the last month. Quietly. No announcements. No calls. No Twitter alerts. A lot of accounts on here will show you a 47% YTD return without ever showing you the account size. That's not transparency. That's marketing. I'm doing this differently. Full transparency. Account sizes. Real entries. Real exits. Real P&L. I'm online 24 hours a day searching for alpha: scanning charts, reading filings, watching order flow, finding the setups before they move. That work is about to become public. Starting now, the trades I've been keeping private... you're going to see them. Stay locked in.

@_robyn_smith Oh okay cool lol, me too.

@ameritradox Before you call people retarded on the internet, make sure they're not being sarcastic! I am on a visa

Yeah this makes sense!!

@AndyrooMac @kevinxu Millionaire. Because he made it.

@kevinxu Percentages show your ability in the markets Vs numbers just show how wealthy you are. Who is the better trader, one who has $20k and made 200% gains or the millionaire that has made 5% gains in the market 🧐

when the numbers are small, they show percentages when the percentages are small, they show numbers only the real ones show both

@SanDiegoKnight Bro are you retarded? You don’t get green card that quickly. My bro in law is in line for 50 years to get green card. He is an engineer at META. Graduated summa cum laude.

Trump in 2024: “Graduate from a U.S. college, get a green card automatically.” Even junior colleges. Jason loves this idea. Of course he does. More foreign STEM graduates = larger talent pool for startups = lower hiring friction = higher returns for venture capital. That’s great for VCs. The question is whether it’s great for American engineers, software developers, and recent graduates competing for those same jobs. America’s immigration policy should optimize for America’s workers first, not Silicon Valley’s labor supply. @realDonaldTrump @SusieWiles47 @Eric_Schmitt @RepGosar @RepEliCrane

@anish_koka End 4 year under grad requirement for physicians. Increase competition between medical colleges, bring tuition lower. Simple.

We have massively expanded residency spots — which are federally funded. That’s what drives the “shortage” — hospitals make money off of their training programs AND get high quality labor. End GME funding of resident training to get a better understanding of what real demand is. The shortage which then demands importing medical graduates is a policy choice.

@AmiableSharpen @SeeFisch The obvious solution is make it easier and cheaper to become a doctor in the US. First fix that. If you stop immigrant physicians, your rural healthcare will collapse. That’s millions of white Americans who eat McDonald’s for breakfast lunch and dinner.

@SeeFisch So let me understand -- American universities need foreigners or they would close from too few students. Hospitals need foreign graduates because there are too few American graduates. I see an obvious solution here... do you?

ABSOLUTELY NOT. this is the point. IMGs fill 25% of spots because there are NOT enough US grads. PS for the trolls and haters: Immigrant doctors are NOT less expensive or cheaper or paid less. This is not a "Cheap labor" false accusation

@CKCapitalxx EV/EBIDTA is 20x right?

I want to give everyone the full breakdown on $HLIT because this is one of the most compelling setups I have come across in a long time. Harmonic spent 35 years building broadband expertise and just completed a full transformation from a hardware company into a pure play broadband software platform. The video business just sold to MediaKind for $145 million. What remains is one of the most defensible software moats in the market. The product is called cOS. And here is why it matters. Every cable operator in the world runs physical CMTS hardware. Massive proprietary boxes costing hundreds of thousands of dollars per node that have to be physically replaced every few years. Truck rolls. Technicians. Capital expenditure that never ends. The economics for operators are brutal. cOS virtualizes the entire cable access network in software. Buy the platform once. Run it on standard cloud hardware. No proprietary boxes. No replacement cycles. Software updates deploy remotely. Capacity scales with a license not a truck roll. Once an operator converts the switching costs are enormous. You do not rip out the software layer running your entire broadband network. That is why cOS commands greater than 95% market share in virtualized CCAP deployments. Every major US cable operator is already a customer. Now here is the catalyst that makes this a must own right now. DOCSIS 4.0. The largest infrastructure upgrade in cable history. AT&T fiber now passes 28 million plus homes. Frontier is aggressively overbuilding. T-Mobile fixed wireless is accelerating. Every month Charter or Comcast delays DOCSIS 4.0 they lose broadband subscribers to fiber offering symmetric gigabit at comparable prices. This upgrade is not optional. It is a survival imperative. Charter committed $5.5 billion to DOCSIS 4.0 upgrades with full network completion in 2027. Comcast mid ramp targeting 5 Gbps symmetric by 2026. Cox committed multi gig to 65% of its footprint by 2028. Every single one of those deployments requires a Harmonic cOS license. Mandatory decade long capex cycle. $HLIT is the only production grade platform in the market. There is no alternative. And AI is pulling the cycle forward faster than anyone expected. Consumer AI proliferation is driving upstream bandwidth demand at 20% annually per Harmonic’s own operator data. That rate makes mid split upgrades insufficient within 18 months. DOCSIS 4.0 becomes mandatory ahead of schedule and $HLIT revenue comes with it. Q1 confirmed the ramp is here. Revenue $121.7 million. Up 43% year over year. Beat the top of guidance by 16%. Largest quarterly beat in company history. Operating profit up 115% year over year. Backlog at $582 million up 87% year over year. That is 1.2x full year revenue guidance already sitting on the books before a single new order is added. Full year guidance raised to $475 to $495 million. Free cash flow estimated at $110 to $130 million for the year. Gross margins running at 52% today and expanding as the software mix grows. Pure play broadband software companies with 50% plus gross margins trade at 4 to 6x EV/Revenue. $HLIT currently trades at 3.5x forward revenue. The re rate has not happened yet.

@CKCapitalxx @kevinxu Subscribed to you, hoping to make some $$ and learn about the trading game. How to make the most of your group?

@kevinxu short serenity long kev

another kevin xu W

@GothamGriffins @MetamateDaz Exactly they skip that whole part

@MetamateDaz This whole conspiracy about rich people borrowing all of their spending cash is rubbish. Doesn’t even make any sense. They would still have to pay that loan back by selling stock. Which incurs taxes. Pure fiction.

Jeff Bezos capped his salary at $82,000. Not because he's modest or because he wanted what's best for society and his company but because salaries are taxed. Instead, he borrows against his $230 BILLION stock to fund his lifestyle UNTAXED No paycheck = no income tax. The he jumps on TV and said he pays his fair share of taxes. They think we're stupid.

@SmashingZwan @adammocklerr Your one anectodal experience against 3 opposite experience. That’s why studies are important.

@ameritradox @adammocklerr That study used statistical risk assessment and hospital fixed effects to come to that conclusion. I'm not saying it's wrong, but if you're going to say my lived experience that i've seen firsthand for years is flawed you can't claim that your source is the end-all answer.

Lol. Immigrants pay taxes, serve in the military, start businesses, and make up 28% of America’s physicians. I’d bet one of your doctors is an immigrant. Thankfully, we don’t need a dogshit opinion from ‘captive dreamer’ on when someone gets a say in society. America settled this 200 years ago: citizenship through naturalization. Naturalization is the legal pathway to voting. It takes 5+ years, a civics test, background checks, demonstrated English proficiency, and an oath.

@SmashingZwan @adammocklerr Your single anecdotal evidence doesn’t matter. There is a study in BMJ proving immigrant doctors are better.

@adammocklerr Yeah, almost all of my doctors are foreigners. Almost all of them speak broken English. Almost all of them read from a script and push pills as the solution to virtually everything. And don't think I haven't noticed how much better they treat patients that are the same as them

@Agent_X001 You should allow people to choose the delta to manage their risks

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@stephenehorn You’re retarded af. As an American, I know immigration helps native population

If you start a company on a TEMPORARY NON-RESIDENT visa, that risk is on you We're tired of seeing our immigration system be twisted and abused to serve the interests of immigrants, rather than the interests of the American people

@Sun_of_AZ @SinaHartung Slaves? The slaves of Twitter are who banned your dumbass president

@SinaHartung Cali needs their slave labor to be anything. If people realized that Cali runs off of slave labor then their economy collapses. They need slaves for their crops and fields to export food, slaves to keep systems running Let’s just count illegals as 3/5ths of a person

the elites don’t want you to know this but SF runs on immigrants