Francis

43 posts

Francis

Francis

@amtob67

improving as an investor

Katılım Mart 2026
108 Takip Edilen8 Takipçiler
Francis retweetledi
Farmer
Farmer@SowingAlphaSeed·
The latest idea I've been thinking about is understanding what the market is optimizing for. If people are optimizing 3 month returns, there's alpha in focusing on a 12 month horizon. If people are focusing on book value, focus on P/E. If people are focusing on P/E, focus on earnings growth. Etc.
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Ian Cassel
Ian Cassel@iancassel·
Winning normally looks like sitting on dead money for 1-2 years longer than you thought and then having the stock triple in a month. As long as the business is improving, being too early and being forced to wait a few more quarters is a curse in the short-term, but a blessing in the long-term. It forces you to form a deeper conviction in what you own.
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Ian Cassel
Ian Cassel@iancassel·
It always feels like you’ll never get another shot to buy a company you want to own and/or add to an existing position, but almost every year (especially in microcap) the market gives you another opportunity.
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Walter
Walter@walt373·
This was almost ten years ago, and probably the single most important decision for my returns. Opened my mind to the possibility that most of what I read in books was wrong.
Walter tweet media
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Pernas Research
Pernas Research@pernasresearch·
I know @atelicinvest is half joking but imo this is the biggest mistake I see pros make. Not updating priors aggressively enough in the face of something new. Experience has a way of gluing down priors.
Unemployed Capital Allocator@atelicinvest

Imagine being a guy who was uber bullish AI, saw the changes coming on day 1 of chatgpt drop, been using it for hours each day since then to do everything, and somehow owned *checks notes* software and online media

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Pernas Research
Pernas Research@pernasresearch·
The first and most stratospherically important question you should ask to understand an investor is: what is your time horizon? So many disagreements can just be chalked up to differences in time horizons.
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Francis
Francis@amtob67·
@walt373 Would be interested to know what conditions you think need to be met for long-term value investing to work, if you say it just relies on cyclical outperformance?
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Paul Enright
Paul Enright@pmje73·
Investing in secular change. If you want to be exposed to a positive secular change don’t buy the inexpensive, safe play. Buy the best and most exposed to the trend. If you want to be short a secular trend, short the weakest player not the one with the highest multiple or biggest profit pool.
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Ethan Kho
Ethan Kho@ethanrkho·
"Who were the former owners who sold it down? Are they coming back anytime soon? Probably not." — a different way to think about beaten-down stocks: Derek Pilecki — 21%+ annualized, entire net worth in his own fund. Derek explains: "You have to think about it in terms of who the shareholders are." "High multiple stocks, great steady growth businesses. The charts are broken. There's a set of shareholders who will not buy those stocks with the way the charts look right now." "There's probably 10 of these companies that have all gone straight down. I don't wanna try to catch a knife. I probably can't figure out which one the market's getting comfortable with." "Once the shareholder base has exited, they're not coming back to the stock quickly. The chart has to heal. That might take six to 12 to 24 months." "I'm thinking about those as potentially opportunities for me in the future."
Ethan Kho@ethanrkho

This guy beat the market for 17 straight years trading a sector many investors have written off post-2008 Derek Pilecki (@gatorcapital) runs a financials-only fund. 21%+ annualized. His edge? A corner of the market many investors moved away from after the GFC. We cover: - Why he expanded from 25 → 40 positions and returns went UP - His counterintuitive rule: buy higher, not lower (positions get LESS risky as they rise) - The Robinhood call — bought late 2023, rode it to a multibagger - Why he's quietly watching FactSet, Morningstar & Verisk right now - His view on private credit risk (and why he disagrees with Jamie Dimon) - How he uses AI to analyze more stocks without losing his edge - Why markets chronically underreact to good news — and how to exploit it - The brutal career reality no one tells young PMs about Highlights: 00:00 Intro 01:06 Derek's +21% annualized return track record 02:50 Fundamental business change vs market noise in Robinhood 05:25 Portfolio construction: Concentration limits and adding to winners 09:09 Sourcing alpha and identifying three-year doubles in financials 12:44 Developing edge through repetition and management team cycles 14:16 Why the post-GFC regime fundamentally changed bank underwriting 17:07 Assessing tail risk and leverage in the private credit market 21:23 AI-driven market dispersion and identifying moaty businesses 24:11 Why shareholder base turnover matters for timing broken charts 29:37 Integrating AI into fundamental research and SEC filing analysis 35:39 Risk management: Permanent capital loss vs mark-to-market volatility 37:12 Capacity constraints: Optimizing for returns over AUM scale 50:39 Career risk and the reality of active money management

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Goshawk Trades
Goshawk Trades@GoshawkTrades·
Druckenmiller: 30% annualized returns. zero losing years from 1981 to 2010. his take on contrarianism: "it's overrated." "Soros used to say the crowd's right 80% of the time. you just can't be caught in the other 20%." "i don't care if a trade is crowded if the thesis is right and the trend is with me." most retail traders try to be contrarian on every trade. the best macro investor alive says stop doing that.
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Farmer
Farmer@SowingAlphaSeed·
I built a shitty website (inspired by the UK banning imgur links): sowingalphaseed.com
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Farmer
Farmer@SowingAlphaSeed·
Been having a ridiculously good week. Feels like my face is gonna get ripped off any minute.
Farmer tweet media
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Kreuzmann
Kreuzmann@Kreuzmann13·
Picking the right investing idols is one of the most important thing for youngs. How to recognize one? Those that focus on sustainability and durability to stay in the game long-term. I had wrong heroes before, but I believe now I know who they truly are.
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Farmer
Farmer@SowingAlphaSeed·
@christopherhuff My profile contains a link to my IBKR portfolio. I try to update it every month or so. Options are a relatively tiny portion of my portfolio and aren't included.
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Pernas Research
Pernas Research@pernasresearch·
I want to clear up what I see as an important misunderstanding in the investment community: It has become fashionable to say that portfolio returns are “power law distributed” or that only a few companies drive portfolio returns. But this is only true in a dollar sense, and even then it is somewhat tautological. As portfolios compound over decades, the largest winners naturally dominate the ending dollar gains simply because they are sitting on top of all the prior compounding that came before them. The earlier “stepping stone” winners that helped build the capital base become forgotten with time. In other words, when people look back after 40 years and say “these 3 stocks drove the portfolio,” they are often ignoring that those stocks only became so economically dominant because dozens of prior gains compounded into them beforehand. What matters more is the underlying distribution of percentage returns and the weighting schema applied across those returns over time. Percentage returns are not power law distributed. They are closer to a normal distribution with an obvious right-tail skew because losses are bounded at -100%. The real investing skill is not some romanticized notion of “finding one giant winner,” but consistently generating favorable return distributions and allocating capital effectively across them through time. Below is a hypothetical example of an active portfolio invested over 40 years.
Pernas Research tweet media
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Paul Enright
Paul Enright@pmje73·
A few years ago I mentioned on a podcast that “biz quality” is overrated as an analytical tool and industry structure/barriers to enter the industry are more important. A simple case study of the fragmented SW industry vs the oligopoly like semi and components sub sectors shows how these industry structures can just sit there for years waiting for an internal or external catalyst to come along and expose those structural weaknesses or strengths.
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Paul Enright
Paul Enright@pmje73·
If you are early in your career or still in school, read this book. Don’t read it expecting a solution to how to pick a stock or manage a portfolio.  Read it to learn how to begin to isolate the most important things from each discipline not everything.  Isolating the most important thing and getting the most important thing right is the most vital skill in investing. If you gave me the choice between hiring someone to train who is fluent in finance but is unable to synthesize and isolate the most important issue or someone who can get at the heart of a problem quickly but has limited finance education I would choose the latter every single time. That doesn’t mean everyone without a traditional finance background is a great potential investor.   It just means a finance background is not the most important thing.
Paul Enright tweet media
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David Orr
David Orr@orrdavid·
The best way to improve your long term track record is removing downside. Go through your record and study your largest 5 drawdowns and truly understand what happened. Then make an improvement. Way too many people focus on making large scores when this should be their focus.
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Keşfet

@atelicinvest @walt373 @SowingAlphaSeed @christopherhuff @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano