Andrew

I started a new blog today sellthedip.com Here's my first post explaining my preferred Tether/USDT price sellthedip.com/a-more-accurat…

I finally got the Odds Comparison tool back online over at sportsbettingcalcs [dot] com! If you're into tracking betting odds history, give it a spin. If you have site improvement suggestions, please lmk! (link in bio)

@michaellistman @vixologist No its through tradingview. If you want a python script to create a csv w vx30 columns and trade dates I'm confident I could write that in an afternoon. Much more than that w visualizations or thinkorswim integration or something is a larger project. Can DM w specs if interested

@andr3w321 @vixologist Does it work independent of tradingview?

I was 0 days old when I learned the Office365 can flow stock prices into spreadsheets. 🤦‍♂️ Go easy on me, I started when dial-up was the only access to other computers outside of your BNC crimped, Token-Ring Network. (then came AOL, AltaVista... 🤪) youtube.com/watch?v=7CqWwb…

@vixologist @michaellistman One time $300 payment and I'll share the code boys

@michaellistman Vol clusters. We can stay in that lower quartile awhile. You just don't want to be short vol when we've been there awhile and start moving up out of it.

The contention that "VIX is riskier to short near the lows" has always bothered me as being inaccurate from a quantitative perspective so here's what I did today (and the results confirmed my view) The parameters of this study are as follows: >Analyze $VIX in 5 point ranges >10+ point gain = adverse risk event >Looked at 10 trading sessions following EOD print (feel free to suggest alternative parameters if you think they'd be more representative of actual risk of loss) These results clearly show that your actual RISK of loss decreases with lower index levels. The 4.3% result for the 30-35 range might throw some off so I'll add some color to this: VIX above 30 is a very rare condition, venturing above only around 4x per year, so once that level is reached, getting to 40 is much more difficult. VIX values of 35+ are very very rare (as noted by their occurrence %) and their 10 point moves are less of a stretch than from a sub-15 starting point. So the next time someone tells you that you should never short $UVXY or $UVIX at the low end of a VIX range, send them this 😺

@EpsilonTheory Consider yourself lucky. I just renewed mine and my premiums went up 23% year over year for the same plan.

We just got the renewal notice for our company's healthcare policy: +12% Last 3 years premium increases, with zero changes in coverage or benefits: 2026: +12% 2025: +5% 2024: +16% I'd be angry if I thought it would make any difference. This system is so fucking broken.

@willemijn_arjen Yeah it worked out last weekend, but ain't no way I'm shorting this near ATHs in mid December. Long oil stocks over the weekend is the way this weekend for me into tomorrows close. Polymarket has US/Venezuela engagement at 7% by Dec 15 and 22% by Dec 31 currently.

@andr3w321 don't short, just wait, i'd say, during weekends

This is the way. December is incredibly bullish if we don't get the invasion. Invasion is likely to happen on a weekend and the following Monday would gap down if it happens, therefore, just stay max long during the week and max short from Fri close to Mon open every Dec weekend

@Tony_tradingk @bennpeifert That information is mostly printed digitally instead of on paper therefore it is less valuable /s

@andr3w321 @bennpeifert Have you tried reading research reports on trading strategies by students from top universities?

What books would you recommend for a smart high school senior who wants a basic introduction to: 1) fundamental investing (yeah, yeah, I know) 2) trend following 3) stat arb

@DoctorRazzWSOP @bennpeifert Why is Benn mocking value investing in his original tweet? Is it bc he read a bunch of value investing books and concluded the authors were idiots? Or bc he's backtested the data himself and concluded fundamental factors provide very little predictive value on future stock prices

@DoctorRazzWSOP @bennpeifert I'm not saying never read books, I'm saying especially for someone new and inexperienced like a high school senior, books provide a very low return on time investment compared to some form of hands on model building and backtesting.

@Kalshi @bennpeifert This is extremely poorly worded for a bet. What happens if chamath gets a literal pet anaconda and measures it? Does yes win?

@bennpeifert there is hope :)

No SPAC before anaconda reveal. Say it with me

Money laundering has always been stable coins' real use case.

@smashelito I know you've answered before, but I couldn't find any answers after searching. How do you come up with your VIX levels? I see that you changed the 6050 VIX level from 15.6 to 16.26 today, why?

#ES_F Daily Plan | June 10 Today’s relatively quiet session established value overlapping to higher—a bullish indication in the context of the weekly balance breakout, until proven otherwise. However, the breakout continues to lack conviction and pace, and the session ended with a poor high—indicative of crowded momentum. Sellers’ main objective is to end the daily one-time framing up by breaking below the 6000 level, which also marks a low volume node (LVN). Failure to do so would remove the potential for a shift in tone. In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6022—today’s value resistance. Holding below 6022 would target today’s low at 6000 (DT1) and 5988 (DT2), with a final downside target (FDT) at 5956, the inside week high, under sustained selling pressure. On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6022 would signal strength, targeting 6034 (UT1), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6050 under sustained buying pressure.

Nobody cares and we’re trading 10 pts lower now, but I flattened today at 5988. +180 pts on 60 pts risk. It seems consensus is chop around 5950 SPX for a few weeks so not the best environment for long term swing holds. I’ll be shorter term trading buying dips and selling rips.

Yeah, lows are in. Put a stop down at 5750 and ride this to all time highs imo. Risk 60 pts to make 400.

You know what to do fam. Lows are in. Unless they aren’t. But maybe they are. 🤷‍♂️ Safest buys are above 5900 SPX.

Ya I'm out. Close looks terrible. 100% flat. Market in a very precarious pivot spot and could easily crash or rip here. Will wait for resolution either way for a few days.