Andreas Thorstensson

if you find yourself constantly asking how to prioritize your time in a world that changes day by day you must first face the truth you have not yet aligned on a long term mission for your life for when you have unlocked that clarity, the priorities take care of themselves

Some spicy takes on venture capital: - Saying that "seed has gotten expensive" or something and then pointing to a valuation - like "they used to be $10 million and now they're $20 million" - is bascially the same thing as people who say Stock A is more expensive than Stock B because Stock A has a share price of $100 and Stock B has a share price of $5. - The market has gotten better at differentiating among startups earlier and pricing accordingly. - Some very big funds will generate great returns and some will generate poor returns. - Some small funds will generate great returns and some will generate poor returns. - Some concentrated funds will generate great returns and some diverse funds will generate great returns. - The concentrated funds probably have a higher ceiling, and the diverse ones probably have a higher floor. - Some generalist funds will do really well, as will some sector-specific ones. - Some of each will do really poorly, too. - Ownership % is overrated - easy to measure so gets measured but practically meaningless except in hindsight. No shit it would be better to own 20% of your biggest winner than 10% or 1%. - Manager-strategy fit matters much more than any prescribed portfolio construction. - Portfolio construction is overrated, too, because it's something you can measure. - The best portfolio is one that puts all of its money in the best returning investment of the vintage. - LPs who invest in emerging managers basically all want high ownership at pre-seed and seed to have the potential for outlier returns, but like, if enough emerging managers fit that box to attract capital, those returns get competed away. - Plus, the megafunds can usually win whatever they want at pre-seed and seed. They just have the luxury of waiting. - Even if AI is what everyone thinks it is, there are too many funds and dollars chasing it for it to be a good strategy for all but a pretty small number of funds. - This will take a while to see, because the companies grow fast and markups will look good on paper for a while. Exits will probably be harder. - Pretty much every AI application company is long AGI and short ASI. - But there is a scary amount of consensus around AI. What if AI isn't what everyone thinks it is? - Tech is going to get much bigger and there will be fewer, bigger winners, which means a lot of this is probably about getting into the companies you think have a shot at being one of those at prices that don't make you throw up too much. - [always has been meme] - Greatest job in the world - All of the above notwithstanding, I'm pretty sure that my strategy is the optimal one.

The biggest skill to have in future software dev will be taste. Not programming.

Slot machines can now follow you across the casino floor😳