andrew farrow

BREAKING: A stealth B‑2 “Spirit” strategic bomber is flying over the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the Pacific to boost the morale of the crew, who have been facing difficult conditions due to repeated Iranian attacks.

One of the interesting dilemmas facing the oil market today is that even if the Strait of Hormuz opens fully tomorrow, there are now north of 180 million bbls sitting in tankers. All of those tankers will have to unload first, which would take 35-45 days. After, it needs to travel back to the Middle East, which would be another 25-30 days. Meanwhile, other tankers will be in route to countries like Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq to load. This will take 25-30 days. Altogether, flows physically can’t resume to normal even if it opened tomorrow. This is why we are headed for the breaking point in the oil market. The physical dislocation I just explained above saw the reverse take place during COVID when OPEC+ came to a historic production cut agreement of 10 million b/d. The cuts came too late as demand destruction had already taken place. Couple that with the fact that the cuts weren’t going to start until May, and the agreement was in early April, sent oil prices into the depth of hell 2 weeks later. So manage your expectations accordingly.

@deandavies8 Yes weather been ok today not looking good tomorrow if it’s ok we grab a 🍺☕️👍

@deandavies8 Get on the piss 😂😂🍺🍷

📽️THE TANKER There's an extraordinary race underway on the high seas, as nations vie to secure increasingly scarce shipments of fuel. In our latest on the economics of this conflict we track one such ship & ask: why is Britain so exposed? The answer is not v reassuring. Watch👇

The world’s most important price for real-world oil barrels surged above $140 on Thursday, the highest since 2008 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@deandavies8 Have you got the heating on 💰🥶😂

🚨 Explosion at Valero's Port Arthur refinery One of the largest in the US, 435,000 barrels/day capacity. And it just became a lot more important than most people realize. 👇 Valero was preparing to import 6-6.5 million barrels of Venezuelan crude in March alone. Port Arthur is the primary US sink for Venezuelan Heavy Sour The immediate impact: Venezuelan heavy cargoes need rerouting to St.Charles, Corpus, Houston USGC diesel supply tightens Heavy-light differentials widen Spot demand for Venezuelan grades could softens for weeks But this is a temporary refining shock. Not a structural reversal of the Venezuela strategy. The geopolitical pivot to Venezuelan barrels stays intact. Port Arthur will be repaired. The upgraded coker still makes Venezuelan heavy the most profitable grade to run. One fire doesn't change the chess board. But it tightens an already broken supply chain🛢️🔥 I break down every supply shock as it happens 3x per week. 📩 Subscribe to my newsletter, Link in my bio

More evidence of Asian counties performing a LNG-to-coal fuel switch: Thailand has reactivated two coal-fired units that had been mothballed. The switch is important to put a lid on global LNG (and European gas) prices. bangkokpost.com/business/gener…

History made today ⭐️ Winners at Kelso and Bangor-on-Dee take us beyond £4,000,000 in prize money for the 25/26 season, the first National Hunt yard to hit this milestone. Huge thanks to our owners, staff, and everyone behind the scenes👏🏼

With the price of Brent crude passing $110 a barrel today, forecourt operators are increasingly feeling the strain from the Middle East conflict with fuel-supply issues. forecourttrader.co.uk/latest-news/fo…

Jeff Currie from Goldman Sachs is probably the best person I know regarding commodities. His take on oil prices:

Mister Ursus is off the mark over jumps in the £10,000 Robert Case Memorial Maiden Hurdle for regular visitor @O_J_murphy91 and @ownersgroupuk

@jandjpotterltd @CheltenhamRaces @samtwiston @itvracing @RacingTV @RacingPost @nickluck @willy_twiston @17_bob_trey_o @mickfitzg @PAracing @YortonFarm @ASymondsJourno Good luck🏇🏻🏇🏻

We’re all very excited to see our homebred Guard The Moon take his chance in the National Hunt Chase @CheltenhamRaces tomorrow!l at 5:20. @samtwiston rides. We’ve enjoyed plenty of winners at Prestbury Park but, after years of trying, NEVER at the #CheltenhamFestival 🙏

@jandjpotterltd @CheltenhamRaces @samtwiston Good luck 🐎👍

DECLARED! Guard The Moon heads to @CheltenhamRaces for the NH Chase on day one of the #CheltenhamFestival @samtwiston rides our homebred son of Pether’s Moon!

Funny moment as #PrincessAnne #PrincesRoyal presents the trophy as Patron of @Scotlandteam after they beat France 50-40 in the @SixNationsRugby

If the Strait of Hormuz remains "closed" (🚢 down ~84%) I believe WTI could reach $100/bbl by Wednesday and make all-time highs 1-2 weeks thereafter. Every day the situation gets exponentially worse. We are positioned in oil producers and a $100/$110 WTI call spread accordingly.

Just got off the phone after @Ed_Miliband called to discuss in detail the problems people are facing with domestic energy bills and heating oil. Here's what I fed through - your feedback would be useful... 1. HEATING OIL: This is the most immediate concern as many, often in rural areas or N. Ireland, are refuelling their tanks. Prices have rocketed, a few even suggest they've nearly doubled in a week. My biggest concerns are... a) Those who can't afford the new price b) Lack of specific regulation as heating oil isn't covered by Ofgem (though that's a longer-term issue) c) Some have anecdotally reported existing booked-in orders being cancelled, and being asked to rebook at much higher prices. I want to firm up whether this is widespread... I'd like to hear specific examples of how much prices are rising, especially of point c) and will pass them through to the Department for Energy. 2. CONSUMER GAS & ELECTRICITY BILLS: This is less imminent, but a potential ticking cost time-bomb. I'm focused on the Eng, Scot & Welsh system here... - In the short term: Most bills are protected from the spike in wholesale energy prices as the Energy Price Cap is set based on a significant time-lag. In fact it is locked in to DROP 6.7% in April. Those not on the Price Cap are mainly on existing fixes (which, due to unprecedented prior policy changes, will see most suppliers cut existing fix rates on 1 April, typically by 7% to 9%) so are also price protected for now. One current concern is the lack of availability of cheap fixes. While that's frustrating, in the short term it means those whose existing fixes are ending, will just (hopefully temporarily) need to move on to the Price Cap. There are also a minority of homes who are immediately affected, eg, those on time-of-use tariffs. These include Octopus Agile & Tracker, which move half-hourly or daily with wholesale rates. These are sophisticated user tariffs, and if necessary people have the short term option to switch back to a Price Cap tariff (though do check for restrictions on how long before you can switch back). So while none of that is great, it isn't crisis point. - The end of May is likely crunch time: This is usually when the next Price Cap (July to Sept) is announced. It currently seems very likely it will rise, though just how much all depends on how long lived the current energy price spike is. Yet the key is whether wholesale rates have dropped back down or not by that point. If they have, while the Price Cap rise will annoy many, it won't be critical for most for two reasons i) The July to Sept Price Cap is usually the lowest use period. So, even if typical use rose £200/yr, in practice this'd just be, at a guess, an extra £30 to £40 paid over the period. If by then wholesale rates are down, a substantial cut would be expected for the next (Oct) Cap. ii) The rate new fixes are set at is based on wholesale rates, so if wholesale rates have dropped by then, the big push should be to get people off the Price Cap and onto fixes which could possibly look to be 20%+ cheaper, avoiding any price hike. That should then leave only those unwilling or unable to switch paying more - the latter is an issue the govt would need to concern itself with at that point. Yet if rates haven't dropped back down by May, and it looks like it'll stay high so the October Price Cap will rise too, and no cheap fixes are available, then things get into real problem territory. The government needs to be (and I suspect is starting to) planning now for that eventuality in case more hard-core intervention is needed. Martin PS I said I'd be off socials for the weekend, as normal, but thought this was worth coming back on for. I'm now resuming my weekend break from socials.

A wonderful result for the classy Calimystic! Now. 2️⃣/2️⃣ over fences! We are very very very happy owners! 🏆

@jandjpotterltd Lovely run I did have a little panic on the last 🏇🏻congratulations 👏👏🏇🏻