andrksl

@bubbleboi Was obvious

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@jackclarkSF @edwardmarkdown @deredleritt3r that's awesome. definitely silly to use academic credentialism as a complete proxy for technical understanding esp. for an ant founder lol. enjoyed your ezra klein interview.

@andrksl @edwardmarkdown @deredleritt3r It's 90% my own understanding, 10% colleagues. My hobby is sitting around and reading arxiv papers. I read the papers until I understand them, then I write summaries, have claude rate my understanding, etc. For Import AI, I've now read something like ~5,000 papers over 10 yrs

Jack Clark believes that there's a ~60% likelihood that we will reach fully automated AI research in 2028, but only a ~30% likelihood we will reach it in 2027. The full Substack post (linked in the tweet below) explains his rationale and is worth reading in its entirety.

@jackclarkSF @edwardmarkdown @deredleritt3r How much of your prediction is grounded in your own technical understanding vs. a synthesis of what you've heard internally from your more technical colleagues? Hoping this doesn't sound rude.

@edwardmarkdown @deredleritt3r I'm not sure what makes you so confident in being able to discount what I think and how I think. I wish you luck in your endeavors in life and hope you treat those close to you with more generosity and grace than you have treated me.

@stevehou Most of those aren't neoclouds but they have all the precursors to serve compute for hyperscalers. I only wonder how they'll capture most upside since many of their leases are 10-15YR terms, e.g Cipher's deal with AMZN, Fluidstack/Google.

@stevehou Isn't this basically the Leopold Aschenbrenner trade. All these former bitcoin mining companies are going to leverage their existing infrastructure to transition to providing datacenters + energy + compute to hyperscalers. CIFR, IREN, RIOT, BTDR, CORZ, etc.

If there’s a global supply crunch in new compute and mad scramble for every bit of new capacity that could be brought online, the existing compute companies like the “Neoclouds” that are already installed or about to be become much more valuable, no matter how terrible their unit economics might’ve previously seemed, right?

@aleabitoreddit Situational Awareness dude has a ton of $IREN though. Can’t be that bad.

$IREN and $SLNH investors are probably the most braindead communities I've interacted with on X. I've never seen a community so bullish on a $219M MC stock that has a new $1,000,000,000 dilution. And an ongoing $500,000,000 ATM. Then you have $IREN, with $6,000,000,000 active ATM, sold over time into the open market. Maybe, it's a better idea to just go long on a stock without the toxic financing... So you can actually benefit from equity appreciation without just being liquidity? It's just so hard to explain to people the nuances in financial dilution who lack the brain cells. And it just so happens $SLNH gets mentioned positively by $BKKT, $IREN investors the moment after they file a $500M ATM since they need exit liquidity. The company is selling offloading shares directly to these idiots.

@pitdesi I was taken aback by how often Becerra's answers were authoritarian in nature. Insurers want to raise rates? Ban them from doing so. Insurers losing money and want to leave CA? Ban them from leaving. You simply can not be a governor with 3rd grade instincts towards prob solving.

Sorry, you can’t vote for Becerra. One of his major policies is freezing insurance non-renewals and rate increases. This would be disastrous for the state, here’s the chain reaction that will happen 1. Insurers exit California. If the only option is to lose money (because you can’t price accurately) or exit the state the answer is obvious! State Farm and Allstate already paused new policies, they’ll pull out entirely. 2. ppl can’t get insurance from private industry so they turn to the FAIR Plan, CA’s insurer of last resort. After the next big fire, FAIR Plan losses get assessed on every private insurer, who pass costs to every policyholder in the state and then even MORE companies pull out of the state. Safe-area homeowners subsidize fire-zone losses, maybe the state steps in and it hits every taxpayer. 3. Catastrophic reinsurance capital flees to Texas and Florida. Reinsurers price California risk based on expected returns. Cap the upside and they redirect capital. Less capital means less capacity means higher prices or no coverage at all. 4. Mortgages get harder. Lenders require insurance. No insurance means no conforming mortgage. Home sales slow, and existing owners get stuck. Becerra’s anecdote about his mom is pure idiocy - insurance prices forward risk, not loyalty. If the fire risk or cost to replace a house increases, of course the insurance price goes up! The real fix is on the supply-side: price risk accurately, build less in fire zones, harden homes, clear fuel.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ @MattMahanSJ is the ONLY candidate with a supply-side plan. Allow risk-based pricing, speed up rate filings, reduce fuel loads, bring competition back. Hilton unfortunately has no plan, he does not seem to understand the issue. The rest are running on “make someone else pay,” which is how we got here.

John Oliver is the pinnacle, the absolute Platonic ideal, of "British guy says stupid shit in a British accent and everyone thinks it's smart because of the accent"

@chriswithans Even if we beat this, something else is going to come, and come, and come until eventually it passes. I just can’t see a future where California votes to stop or reverse tax hikes. I want to see a bright future for CA but it’s tough. Envy, vindictiveness, resentment.

Service Unions and many elected Democrats in California want citizens to approve a 5% wealth tax on residents (& some former residents) with $1 billion or more in total assets because Medi-Cal (California's version of Medicaid) is going to lose $190 billion in federal funding over 10 years. Noncitizens including "the undocumented" and foreigners are eligible for Medi-Cal in California. But no citizen is due to lose Medicaid. Requirements haven't changed. And federal funding for eligible recipients is set to predictably grow above the rate of inflation. All of California's problems are of its own making. California was taking federal money and using it to pay for Medicaid services for ineligible foreigners. They did this by approving people who aren't eligible, because they are foreigners; and by implementing large taxes on healthcare providers, which kick back federal dollars into the state treasury while also raising costs for private insurance holders. Congress curtailed those abuses with the OBBB Act in 2025. But California's politicians are addicted to federal funding for illegals, and so they and the service unions are pushing for a 5% tax on billionaires that will almost certainly become a 5% tax on millionaires. If passed, it will still be insufficient for the $190 billion that Democrats want for "free" healthcare for noncitizens, so of course other taxes will soon follow. History is your guide: they said the first round of gas taxes were for the roads. Then they passed another round, because they needed more money for roads. And then they passed a car tax that essentially taxes your vehicle at 1-2% a year based on its market value. They said the 0.9% state disability tax, capped at $153,000, was enough to pay for disability programs. Now it's 1.3%, and uncapped to infinity.

Physical infra as the only durable moat -- this thesis continues today with $INTC earnings and the continued pain in SaaS companies ($GTLB, $TEAM, $NOW, $CRM, etc). Will this thesis ever come back to hit fab-less semiconductor companies like NVDA, AMD, etc?

@gfodor @DaveShapi If the distributional outcome you imagine is realized -- and those in the US, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the Netherlands (countries that contributed to the advent of ASI) reap the exact same reward as those in Nigeria, Somalia, and Venezuela... then democracy has died and that is bad.

@gfodor @DaveShapi If you genuinely believe in ASI and a runaway explosion of intelligence where its hard for anyone to catch up beyond a capability threshold, then you do not believe the currently impoverished and weak countries can force the developed world into global communism and war.

UBI DEBATE Give my your best arguments for or against

@gfodor @DaveShapi That’s not a world in which we are a free, democratic system. In that world our will is superseded for the “greater good” and “fair” resource allocation. That is communism.

@gfodor @DaveShapi The only way this could happen is if we were so completely disempowered by super intelligent AI systems that we had no say in allocation of the benefits. It would be completely irrational for us to give Nigerians the same level of UBI as your neighbor.

@GregSkeena @JeremyTate41 “That is not progress, that is surrender” Was the giveaway.

@JeremyTate41 why does he sound like an LLM?

Neuroscientist explains how the SAT is redefining education

@claudeai Genuinely what the hell is OpenAI doing now

Introducing Claude Managed Agents: everything you need to build and deploy agents at scale. It pairs an agent harness tuned for performance with production infrastructure, so you can go from prototype to launch in days. Now in public beta on the Claude Platform.

@brainage19 Increase your stake in companies that stand to benefit.

I'm legit freaking the fuck out what the fuck so I do to prepare for whatever the fuck is coming