A little perspective on the Kentucky CD4 race. Trump has clearly turned KY-4 into a nationalized primary. His endorsement of Ed Gallrein, plus the money and attacks coming at Thomas Massie, have made this a much more serious contest than a typical incumbent primary. That matters when reading our poll. Massie still leads 46.8% to 37.7%, but his image numbers are not especially comfortable for an incumbent: 51.4% favorable, 46.4% unfavorable. That suggests the pressure on him may be working at least to some degree. The hard part is timing. Polling a congressional district more than a month out is like taking a picture of a moving train. We do not know exactly where Massie was a month or two ago. Maybe he was up much bigger and the spending narrowed it, and created more undecideds. Maybe not. What we do know is that Massie still has the edge, but this race is not frozen. There is still 14% undecided, turnout will matter a lot, and the final electorate could look very different or different enough from the one we are measuring today. So yes, Massie remains the candidate to beat. But Gallrein shows strength as a challenger, especially so if he has to sprint the last mile. But @BIGDATAPOLL closer number could also end up being closer to the final result if late movement, spending, and turnout keep cutting into his lead.
