LONGTERMONLY

@MasterPandaWu Anthropic's Fable is better than GLM by every metric and its not even close.

Will this GLM 5.2 become another DeepSeek moment & reaction on Monday? [BTW, that DeepSeek reactive selloff was on Jan. 27th, 2025, Monday, when SPX dropped 1.5% and QQQ crashed 3%]

@nasdaq19500 @MasterPandaWu People spend hundreds on Hoka shoes when you can get lower quality shoes for 90% less. GLM 5.2 is a great model but gets destroyed by Anthropic's fable. So companies will pay for the more expensive thing if it means better intelligence/quality.

@MasterPandaWu Should be. Market on crack though. Just keep spending trillions on something that’s gonna be produced for much less.

@TheShortBear Token expenditure is a very flawed metric if you are trying to represent it as AI demand. I don't want to type it all out, just ask AI why token expenditure is flawed, there are a lot of reasons.

AI seems to be approaching a dangerous point. Doesn’t mean it’s all ending but we are at historical extremes both in terms of extension, flows while Token expenditures is falling.

@AlmaCap114204 Open Source is not 2 months behind, that's insane. Anthropic had Mythos is Feburary, a model that easily outperforms every open souce model. That was 4 months ago, Anthropic's internal models have only gotten better in 4 months and they likely have next version of Fable.

Once again hard not to be bearish on the frontier models. The models depreciate as soon as there is a better model on any capability from any lab. No one has lock in. Switching costs non existent. Can be turned off at any time by USG. Open source is 2! months behind.

@LogicalThesis @Wolfdog_Capital Because Meta has elite LLM talent that are at the level of elites from OpenAi and Anthropic. They just haven't had as much time to build models, expect next few releases to improve.

@Wolfdog_Capital It's a horrible business to be in.... why would they rush to this lol

I still don't get why $META is spending all this money on AI capex when they aren't a hyperscaler. They don't have the model. They aren't the toll booth for compute. This isn't their business Imo this is diworseification.

@LogicalThesis They have some of the best engineering talent for building LLM. They just have not had as much time as others to build it. Watch out for Meta's next model releases, should be pretty good. Their last model was not SOTA but pretty good considering MSI's first public model.

@ESchwaa @SophiaCai99 How do you know they didn't go to Anthropic directly?

@SophiaCai99 This still makes no sense. I can’t wrap my head around why Amazon would snitch to the government instead of going to Anthropic directly. As one of the biggest commercial partners they would be hit just as hard. And we still have no public evidence of what was found.

NEW: Inside the 24-hrs before WH slapped export controls on Anthropic - Last Thursday, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy raised concerns about Fable jailbreak to Trump admin - Friday AM, Sean Cairncross, Bessent, Susie etc. held WH call to discuss - Then White House started reaching out to Anthropic to speak with Dario Amodei, who was at a wellness retreat. - When Amodei was finally available past 1pm, he had three tense phone calls with a combo of ppl including Cairncross, Bessent, Lutnick, Kessler, Will Scharf, Richard Walters, and Walker Barrett. -Amodei tried to clear up what he assumed was a misunderstanding. He defended the guardrails and distinguished between universal and non-universal jailbreak - Cairncross and Bessent were unmoved and asked Amodei to take down Fable and work with the admin to fix the vulnerabilities. (A WH official said Amazon’s findings were run past the NSA and they felt they had “proof.”) - Amodei asked for more time and info, but he made no commitments to pull the model - Bessent told Amodei directly at one point that he was making a “bad decision” - By Friday evening, the Trump admin imposed its export controls. - “Export controls were a last resort after begging them for hours to work with us,” senior WH official said. W/ @cheyennehaslett politico.com/news/2026/06/1…

@caseyjdonaldson @UrsBranco Just cause you think something is a bad business model, does not mean its a bad business model. Do you think you are smart enough to understand all business models in every industry? Cause I don't think anyone is, even Warren Buffett makes mistakes, stay humble.

@UrsBranco Just because it’s the foundation everything else runs on doesn’t make it a good business model.

AI has sucked up $1.3 trillion out of $1.5 trillion created since 2025. And there is no end in sight…

@Pharmdca This is a logical fallacy, just cause it didn't work out before does not mean it won't work this time. Gambler's fallacy - Wikipedia

Don’t get your hopes up. We had seen this before so many times. Until it’s officially confirmed from both sides, it’s all weekend fun tweets as it’s ongoing for so many weeks. it’s all cryptic thoughts in his mind that he likes to capture through his tweets 😂

@cleareyecapital @arithesis This was written by AI. I can load up Claude and it can write this for me.

AAOI ripped 10× from $15 to $233 on the perfect AI optics shortage story. But its own earnings is calling the entire narrative bullshit. Longs need flawless execution quarter after quarter plus a world that stays friendly. Bears only need one thing: hope to finally run dry. And hope is always loudest right before it dies. AAOI is screaming its head off. The 10x that the company's own numbers don't believe $15 to $233 on the hottest story in hardware: an 800G/1.6T shortage 40-60% undersupplied through 2027, datacenter revenue +154%, $1.1B FY26 guide, and “China InP ban equals US fab jackpot.” Then you check the one number that actually matters. At the absolute peak of the scarcity every bull is high on: - Lumentum gross margin: +1,270 bps - Coherent: +105 bps - AAOI: -150 bps, down to 29.1% The grown-ups raised prices and printed fatter margins in the best market they will ever see. AAOI’s margin went backwards. They are not capturing the bottleneck. They are the sweatiest guy inside it — selling everything they can make at prices other people set, while the market pays them like they own the choke point. A real bottleneck raises price into scarcity. AAOI couldn’t lift a single basis point during the greatest optics squeeze in history. That is not a moat. That is a tell. The "bullish" China ban is loading the other guy's gun The InP export control is supposed to bless US laser fabs. Except AAOI’s lasers come off an outdated small-wafer line in Texas, a full generation behind Coherent, so domestic Chinese substrate access does nothing for them. Meanwhile that same loophole exempts the actual killers. InnoLight and Eoptolink — 60% of global 800G between them, $3B+ scale, 20%+ net margins — get cheap permit-free substrate at home and quietly reload for the 2027 price war. InnoLight ships more in a month than AAOI ships in a year. Beijing didn’t build AAOI a wall. It handed its competitors ammunition and a head start. A trapdoor with a rug on it - 98% of revenue from the top 10 customers. Microsoft alone ~29%. - Purchase orders, not contracts. No demand floor. Amazon even pays partly in dilution. - We have seen this exact movie. 2018: the top customer blinked, revenue went $330M to $224M, stock went $100 to under $10. No pricing power and no committed demand. That is the financial equivalent of standing on a rug over an open elevator shaft and admiring the view. So is it about to pop? Honestly, probably not tomorrow. This is the part people get wrong about shorting bubbles: being right early is just being wrong with extra steps. The shortage has real legs into 2027. AAOI keeps beating and raising, the headlines keep landing ("800G is now our biggest segment"), and a stock like this can stay irrational longer than the impatient can stay solvent. Fighting the melt-up while the squeeze is still on is how shorts become the bagholders. So near-term, the air is still in it. The hype has fuel left. So when does it actually pop? When the scarcity that's holding the whole thing up goes away. That's not a vibe, it's a schedule. The flood of new supply, including AAOI's own 930k-modules-a-month of 2027 capacity and the substrate-free Chinese giants ramping into the same window, all lands in 2027. The moment 800G stops being short, a company with no pricing power and no contracts has nothing left to stand on. The tells that the air is leaving, in order: - Chinese 1.6T price cuts from InnoLight or Eoptolink. That's the war starting. - AAOI's gross margin cracking below 28% while datacenter mix rises. That's the price-taker getting confirmed in the numbers. - 800G spot premiums collapsing under 10%. That's the shortage ending in real time. And the things that would mean the bears are wrong, worth watching honestly: a real equity or long-term-agreement deal from a hyperscaler, the way NVIDIA put $2B each into Lumentum and Coherent, or margins that somehow sustain above 33%. Either of those rewrites the story, and you'd have to respect it. This isn't a bet that the company is a fraud. It's a read that the story sprinted miles ahead of the cash flows, and gravity tends to show up the moment supply normalizes. The bull case, steelmanned To be fair, the bulls aren't delusional. Demand genuinely exceeds what AAOI can build, the Texas ramp is executing faster than skeptics expected, and management is guiding gross margin back to ~35% by end of 2026 and 40%+ in 2027 as 800G/1.6T takes over the mix. If they hit that, my single best line, that they can't raise price, gets a lot weaker. And the US-fab angle is real: hyperscalers want to diversify off Chinese supply, and if AAOI lands an equity or long-term-agreement deal like the ones NVIDIA gave Lumentum and Coherent, the concentration and no-contract risks get fixed overnight. I take both seriously enough to make them my exit triggers, not footnotes. A sustained gross margin above 33%, or a real hyperscaler LTA, and I'm wrong and I'm out. The bear case here isn't "the company is bad." It's "one quarter of margins falling at peak scarcity is the tell, and they have to disprove it." Until they do, the burden of proof is on the story, not the skeptic. Bottom line AAOI is the rare setup where all three legs of a perfect short line up at once: 1. No pricing power. At the peak of the greatest optics shortage in history, its margin went down while Lumentum's and Coherent's went up. If you can't raise price in this market, you never will. 2. The "tailwind" is actually a headwind. The China InP control everyone cites as bullish does nothing for AAOI's outdated Texas fab and quietly arms its substrate-free Chinese competitors for the 2027 price war. There's no cavalry coming. The thing they're cheering is the thing that kills them. 3. No floor under the demand. 98% of revenue in ten customers, ~29% in one, all on purchase orders with no commitments. We've seen exactly how this ends: 2018, top customer blinked, $100 to under $10. AAOI is a price-taker with no moat, no savior, and no demand floor — trading at a choke-point multiple while flying on vibes. It is not a choke point. It is just busy. And busy is not a multiple. It's not a chokepoint. It's just busy. And busy is not a multiple.

@arithesis Lol AI slop, I am not even an AAOI fan, I think it could be very overvalued, but no reason for this slop. At least try next time to write something on your own.

@tomshardware AI SLOP

Intel reportedly preparing surprise return to DDR4 systems with 'Raptor Lake Next' tomshardware.com/pc-components/…

@sonusvarghese Brazil was trash! Sad.

What a poor show by Brazil, except for Vini Jr’s moment of brilliance (which saved Brazil from even more embarrassment) Morocco will come out of that smiling

Reddit as a platform is still valuable, but I am very doubtful for Reddit as a premium platform for model training. As soon as Reddit loses the mark of authenticity its over, its just another social media company, not an AI training monster. Rate accordingly, certaintly not $META

$RDDT Looks great in terms of financials, but what about long term? Value is associated with valuable human responses to diversified products, what happens when you can't tell the difference between human and AI? Stock looks great for next year horrible for next 5 years.

@sonusvarghese @CarsonResearch @RyanDetrick Agreed! Love your analysis btw, am a big fan.

@aowewenttone @CarsonResearch @RyanDetrick Agree we’re early

Boom times, w/ $SPCX drawing $350B in demand 😱 But this is an inflationary boom & despite AI, productivity growth has eased Inflation 🔥 Real wages 👎 Margins 🌟 Forget the ‘90s, this could be late ‘60s redux New blog👇 @CarsonResearch @RyanDetrick carsongroup.com/insights/blog/…

@sonusvarghese @CarsonResearch @RyanDetrick Yeah but we haven't even got to the part where we get the productivity growth, im sure at some point it will tank again. But we are early in AI.

@aowewenttone @CarsonResearch @RyanDetrick And then from 2004 productivity growth tanked!

@scaling01 They are estimating 4000 millionaires created at SpaceX, pretty sure lot of them will sell at least some of their shares.

it will be hilarious to see how SpaceX employees will stop cheering in the future when a rocket blows up because their port just went down 20%

@scaling01 Re-read the post, thats not what he is saying, he is saying that models use different benchmarks and its annoying that they don't use more of the same ones.