Tony

8 straight green daily candles like March 2022. 👀

@Ape_100x bear market mode only or have you been scanning the market for proper degenerate plays? (100x + potential)

Oil prices aren’t high when measuring against the money supply.

The predominant pattern here is still very much a bear flag, and now Bitcoin is at the top of the channel, the point where people start to question whether the bottom is in. Some quick stats: Current bear flag time: 86 Days Longest bear flag time (since Nov 2021): 100 Days Total bear flags: 7 It's typical to see these flags finally break to the downside after the second major retest of the top of the channel, which is happening now.

$CORN looking tasty. 😋

Hidden Bearish Div appearing on the weekly RSI for $BTC.

Remember when bulls were saying this was an inverse head and shoulders pattern, and it was sending Bitcoin to $350,000? The trend line was valid to them then and they claimed it was support Do these same accounts now agree it is potentially support turned resistance? Or let me guess, the trend line and pattern no longer count?

Welcome to crypto!

@KobeissiLetter Saying asset owners are the only winners is like saying water is wet.

There is strong inverse correlation between spikes US diesel prices and Consumer Sentiment. Trucking costs are up +30%, Americans have spent an extra $10 BILLION on gasoline over the last 50 days, and Consumer Sentiment hit a record low. Asset owners will be the only winners.

@duonine @aave Long way of saying it’s a Ponzi scheme.

🚨 I don't think people realize how bad things are at @aave right now. All core markets are at 100% utilization, that includes $3 bil in USDT and $2 bil in USDC stuck! That means you CAN'T WITHDRAW your money! A long post on why and how we ended up here. When the rsETH exploit happened and AAVE incurred bad debt, whales like Justin Sun, MEXC exchange, and others immediately withdrew billions from AAVE. This instantly drained all available liquidity in key core markets like ETH, USDT, USDC and so on. Those first to withdraw got out, laggers got trapped. Initially, the ETH market hit 100% utilization, meaning you could not withdraw your ETH from AAVE. Worse, this also means the protocol can't process ETH liquidations should ETH price fall/crash. If you can't sell any ETH, you can't liquidate to cover debt obligations. That means the risk of more bad debt incurred by AAVE is increasing the longer its markets remain stuck. Nevertheless, users can still sell at a minor loss the aETHwETH tokens on Uniswap or similar aggregators. That exit door is the last one remaining for ETH depositors on AAVE. The same cannot be said by depositors of USDT and USDC. They are stuck. That's because AAVE lost over $6 billion in liquidity in the past 24h. As whales took out their money, USDT and USDC also hit 100% utilization. These markets are now also stuck with money locked. Panic is spreading and desperate times call for desperate measures. Some users decided to borrow against USDT/USDC and exit via other markets at a 10-25% loss (90-75% LTV). Basically you borrow GHO/DAI/USDe against your locked USDT/C. But as more liquidity leaves AAVE, more markets get to 100% utilization and get locked/stuck due to low liquidity. This is quickly cascading across all available markets. Luckily the crypto market was rather flat today so liquidation risks were marginal, but if things change there are billions in stablecoins and other assets locked on AAVE that can't process liquidations = more bad debt for AAVE. If users or related protocols that are stuck need access to their money to prevent liquidations or other critical function, they have a huge problem on their hands. Plus, nobody wants to deposit (or provide liquidity) in these markets now since your ETH, BTC, USDC/T could be stuck there for who know how long. As soon as any available liquidity is made available, it is instantly taken out by bots fighting to get out. As I wrote this I saw 250k in liquidity on USDC vanish in seconds. Then there is the bad debt question. There's over $200 mil in bad debt incurred by AAVE via rsETH that's like a hot potato. Nobody knows who will eventually pay this bill. If you didn't remove your assets from AAVE, you risk receiving at least part of that bill in some form. Not having access to your money is part of that risk too. Contagion is also extremely high. Many protocols and apps rely on AAVE for their earn mechanics. These protocols and their users are stuck too and may be forced to incur bad debt with no fault of their own. October 10th was a CEX driven crash, this is a DeFi risk mitigation failure of epic proportions. AAVE should have never onboarded rsETH as a collateral asset, at least not to the size of hundreds of millions that allowed the hacker to walk away (i.e. borrow) over $200M in ETH after posting fake collateral. Rumors on X are saying rsETH was onboarded by AAVE due to a conflict of interest (lobbying) by a given service provider. If true, this is a major failure of its governance structure (nothing new). The folks at @KelpDAO who manage rsETH also have a tough decision to make on who will actually pay for the $200M exploit. AAVE users? L2 rsETH users? Everyone affected gets a haircut to account for the loss? The AAVE team and its founder, Stani, have been quiet for over 20h since the exploit after initially announcing the rsETH market freeze. They have a pretty big problem on their hands since the whole protocol is at risk right now. Trust is already lost as AAVE is bleeding billions in TVL to the level of hitting 100% utilization on all core markets. Maybe some key actors in the space will step in to provide liquidity to stabilize the markets on AAVE before this gets even worse. I got lucky to get out of AAVE early when I first saw this. I also removed all assets from DeFi and will not touch any protocol in the next few weeks. Too much risk for a few percentage points in yield. If you found this informative, like, share, and follow @duonine

@Shaggy____1 Bro slapped the Goonies out of him. 😭

Oh my Gd , a slap has the power to shift the eye from its position.

Cracks in the US private credit market are widening: Investors requested a record -$14.0 billion in redemptions from private credit funds in Q1 2026. This is up +146% from -$5.7 billion in Q4 2025 and +278% higher than the -$3.7 billion in the full year 2024. Meanwhile, just half of those requests were met, leaving ~$7.0 billion in unmet redemptions, the largest backlog on record. Blue Owl Capital was the hardest hit, with investors requesting withdrawals of 41% from its $6.2 billion technology-focused fund and 22% from its $36 billion credit fund, among the highest quarterly redemption requests the industry has ever seen. Following the surge in requests, Blue Owl capped withdrawals at 5% for both funds, leaving ~35% and ~17% of requests unmet, the most in the sector. This is followed by Ares' Strategic Income Fund and Apollo's Debt Solutions Fund, both seeing ~11% in total redemption requests with ~6% unmet each. Pressure in the private credit market is intensifying.

The S&P 500 triggered a rare technical event today, gapping above both its 50D and 200D moving averages simultaneously. This looked weird to me, so I did some digging. Since 1950, this specific signal has occurred only four times. In every instance, the index faced significant pullbacks shortly after. The average three month drawdown following the signal is -9.51%, with the worst three month drawdown reaching -12.92% during 2018. Historically this has always been an exhaustion gap rather than a sustainable rally. Maybe this time is different.

While oil and equities continue to experience massive volatility, $BTC remains range bound within the bear flag, showcasing one of the cleanest market structures among major assets. Until proven otherwise, the bear flag remains intact.

High oil has preceded the last two major Bear Markets 2008: Oil → $147 → stocks -50% 2022: Oil → $130 → stocks -25% Goldman: major oil shocks = -23% drawdowns on average. Oil is now $115 a barrel. If this stays elevated, risk is rising fast for $SPY

$ETH not looking so great long term. 👀

I used to think like you until I actually drove a Cybertruck. I’ve test drove most of the top end Porches etc. But here’s the question I asked myself, “if I can own any car for 5 years for free what would it be? The conditions are - I can’t sell it, I can’t trade it in, and it will be my only car”. I’ve come to the conclusion that it would be a Cyberbeast.

Anyone who likes this type of “electric car performance” video has never driven a naturally aspirated flat six, v8, v12 Porsche , Ferrari, or Lamborghini. Electric motors are for blenders and vibrators used by your wive’s boyfriend’s girlfriend.

Human emotion and behavior rarely change, and $BTC may be one of the clearest examples to display that truth.

Wonder where we are now.

@mstrang771 🤝

@Ape_100x Great call Tony bro. and thank you for all your fab work in the TG channel.

Do you believe in the simulation now?