Aped in Crypto

Based on BTC's wave structure, shape, intensity and timings, it's unlikely 60k was the bottom. 50k (realised price of LTHs is 44k currently) is looking more and more likely, with 40k and even 30k back on the table. 40-50k is the most likely, but 30k is strong support as well.

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Oil is rising, due to shipping and insurance issues, it's bound to increase further in coming weeks if conflict doesn't stop. Gap at 67.50-69.50 won't be filled until conflict stops/shipping resumes. 80 At resistance (82-85 for a rejection?), once above 85, next 95-100

February and March are seasonally positive, so Btc and crypto going sideways/up is logical. Another high with Btc at 70/71k, or even at 75-78k by end of March, and then a major low at 40-50k in April/May, with a slow recovery starting in May into the summer lull of June and July?

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There'll be a few months of slow recovery after the lows. I have a feeling we reach the bottoms by April/May 2026, followed by a couple of months of slow recovery over the summer months, and upside from July/Aug (possible), or one more low then (?) and upside from Q4 2026.

Based on BTC's wave structure, shape, intensity and timings, it's unlikely 60k was the bottom. 50k (realised price of LTHs is 44k currently) is looking more and more likely, with 40k and even 30k back on the table. 40-50k is the most likely, but 30k is strong support as well.

Timing wise, based on Btc, Eth and Sol, there is a good probability of some kind of low by April/May 2026. It can still take another 6 months-1 year to form a bottom (as per the traditional timings, based on Q4 2022), but could the lows be reached already in the next 3-4 months?

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$BTC This bounce was caused mostly by shorts covering, OI down, price up

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In 2019 when BTC dominance dropped, it dropped because BTC was dropping faster than alts. Why? Because by the time the bear market started, altcoins had already been annihilated. Once BTC broke out of the bear market, BTC dominance went back up to the highs. So I think it feels similar now. BTC is post-top and after QT ended. BTC goes down and drags the rest of the market with it. Good chance this process ends later this year, so stay tuned!

Bitcoin is less than $1000 away from hitting the 2021 cycle top. If BTC price hits $69,000 before the end of the week, that would mean price took 4 months to hit the prior cycle top after the ATH. As a reference, 2022 took ~8 months to hit the 2017 cycle top. And the 2018 bear market never hit the prior cycle’s top from 2013. We could be witnessing one giant slow down in Bitcoin investing over the next few years compared to the last 16 years and potentially a left-translated cycle with no new ATH. In essence, it would look like a multi year bear market from the traditional “4-year cycle” point of view which expects a new ATH every ~4 years.

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Every cycle is the same. Yes, crypto could bounce. And honestly, it would be great for sentiment if it could. But even if it does, it would most likely result in a macro lower high. I don't try and time those bounces. I have tried before with mixed levels of success. Sometimes it works, other times I got rekt. When BTC drops below the 50W moving average, it then goes to the 100W moving average, spends a little time there, then goes to the 200W moving average. Every cycle is eventually the same. BTC topped when it always does (Q4 of the post-halving year), and so many have spent so many hours trying to convince you that it has not. And BTC entered into a bear market, and so many have tried to get you to believe that alt season is "just around the corner" because it always happens after BTC tops. What they fail to account for is social interest. After the 2019 top there was also no rotation into altcoins, which also occurred just before QT ended. I track the social interest in the asset class, and it has been trending down since 2021. There is no one new here for people to sell their altcoins to. Alt seasons historically occur *after* social interest has been trending up for a year, not after it has been trending down for 5 years. Have an actual plan on navigating this brutal asset class. Because if the altcoins you hold drop another 50%-80% from here, not a single influencer who promoted them will express an ounce of regret for it. And you will simply be living with the consequences. I get a lot of hate for saying the truth, but an inconvenient truth is better than a lie.

Failed Bitcoin Narratives: - M2 Money Supply - Global Liquidity Index - Super Cycle (2021) - Super Cycle (2025/26) - Extended Cycle - 5-Year Cycle - Must Have A “Blow-Off” Top - Crypto President - Infinite Money Glitch - Tesla Buys BTC - El Salvador, legal tender - DeFi Summer - NFTs - Inflation Hedge - Digital Gold - BTC Futures - BTC ETFs - Metals Rotation - Halving Event - Money Printer Go Brrr - QT Ending / QE Starting And now “ISM”. I thought we’d all be getting sick of these fairytales 🤷‍♂️

Forget about any and all narratives, including teh 4-year cycle

Every Bitcoin influencer and so called analyst is now Bearish. People are writing essays about why this is bearish. Brother we pumped 2x in matter of months and of course we'll have 50-60% decline. I'm not bullish, I am preparing for a 4-10 month extreme winter where we accumulate, just like in the last 2 Cycles. This sounds boring and also negative but it's the truth. Always has been. Bitcoin goes up 10x fast, comes down 70% slow and removes all the retail. This is what decides if you make it big in the next cycle or not. Not rocket science, just market.

One thing my mentor taught me a long time ago: You chase trades because you doubt your ability to find another good one. You feel bad about missing pumps because you're unsure about your ability to find another opportunity.

If this large correction follow the same timing and pattern as in 2022, 40k is a possibility, and the earliest Btc shall bottom is in Q4 2026 (Sept-November is minimum requirement, unless we see certain changes in wave structure).

These recent moves resulted in changes in my views, of course. It seems there could be a bounce around 70k (68-69k) back to the 80ks, but it's high probability sub-70k prices will come, and 60k (57k) is in the cards.

My view was wrong thinking the bounce at 80k would go higher and need to touch the BMSB at 100k. My targets at 102/104-112k were never reached. The 80-90k range was broken to the downside, and my was wrong again thinking it was a fakeout.