Michael Arbon

4.1K posts

Michael Arbon banner
Michael Arbon

Michael Arbon

@arbsmichael

The truth will set you free.

South Australia Katılım Şubat 2022
359 Takip Edilen6.1K Takipçiler
Michael Arbon
Michael Arbon@arbsmichael·
Tomorrow South Australians head to the polls. Most voters will receive two ballot papers. A green one for the House of Assembly and a white one for the Legislative Council. But not all voters are treated equally. A select group, defined by ancestry, will also complete a third. A grey (or coloured) ballot paper to elect representatives to the First Nations Voice to Parliament for their region. When voting in a First Nations Voice election, voters will need to sign a declaration stating they are Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. In the same polling booth, on the same day, some citizens will have more say than others, purely on the basis of declared ancestry. Not only is Voice voting restricted to people of a specific race, but the positions themselves are also allocated based on gender. Each region has an equal number of positions reserved for males only, females only, and one position for a person of any gender (male, female, or any other gender). It’s estimated that about 30,000 South Australians will be eligible to vote in the First Nations Voice election, yet fewer than 10% participated in the first ballot in 2024. Hardly a glowing endorsement. The Malinauskas Labor government created the SA First Nations Voice to Parliament, despite an overwhelming NO vote in the proposed federal voice (not the same thing, but similar sentiment). The Premier is doubling down on this race-based body, but at this election South Aussies have a choice. Both the Liberals and One Nation have promised to scrap it.
Michael Arbon tweet media
English
27
45
117
4.2K
Michael Arbon
Michael Arbon@arbsmichael·
According to today’s Demos poll, more self-proclaimed right-wing voters in South Australia are backing Labor than One Nation.
Michael Arbon tweet media
English
3
0
4
329
Michael Arbon
Michael Arbon@arbsmichael·
In response to the recent spike in oil prices, it's fair to call for the federal government to reduce or eliminate the excise and GST on fuel sales in Australia. But tax relief without spending restraint does not remove the cost, it simply defers it, adding to debt that future taxpayers must service. Relief at the bowser must be matched by discipline in Canberra. If Treasurer @JEChalmers and the @AustralianLabor government care about the Australian people, they must take serious action to reduce both public spending and the tax burden.
Michael Arbon tweet media
English
2
1
6
352
Michael Arbon
Michael Arbon@arbsmichael·
President Trump once said “we had stupid people running our country … that’s why we have $38 trillion in debt…..the beautiful thing about the tariffs is we’ll start paying off that debt. China’s paying us a lot of money in tariffs.” That may sound attractive, but it skips the most important question. Who is actually paying the Tariff? Economics is not magic. Tariffs don’t just punish foreign nations; they increase the price of imported goods. For essentials with inelastic demand, much of the cost will fall on American businesses and consumers. US inflation continues to run high. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted yesterday that a large share of current inflation, between half and three quarters, is tied to tariffs working through the system. Now we know who is paying. Tariffs may sound great as a protectionist political pitch, but in practice, they function as a tax on your own people.
Michael Arbon tweet media
English
1
0
1
127
Michael Arbon
Michael Arbon@arbsmichael·
Greens voters are the most disciplined. 88% of Greens voter preferences flowed to Labor at the 2025 federal election. The 2022 South Australian state election shows the same pattern: 🍉 81.2% of Greens voter preferences flowed to Labor 🐶 69.8% of Animal Justice Party voter preferences flowed to Labor Contrast this with One Nation voters, whose preferences were far more evenly split: 46.8% to Labor and 53.2% to the Liberals. Similarly, Family First votes which flowed 47.4% to Labor and 52.6% to the Liberals. It’s not just the direction of voter preferences that is less disciplined on the right; it’s the use of preferential voting itself. In the 2022 South Australian upper-house election (the white ballot), two-thirds of voters simply wrote “1” above the line and stopped. It was Greens voters who were most likely to number beyond 1. 44.6% continued their preferences, compared to just 24.2% of One Nation voters. If you just vote “1” above the line and your chosen candidate does not receive sufficient votes to reach a quota (and be elected), when they are excluded, your vote will likely exhaust because no further preferences were marked. If you had continued to number your preferences, your vote would remain active and be transferred to the next best option you chose that’s still in the race. Every exhausted vote is a wasted vote that increases the relative power of ballots remaining in the count. To reduce the risk of your vote expiring worthless, I suggest allocating preferences as far as you can. And remember, parties do not control your preferences in South Australia. How to vote cards are a suggestion, not an instruction. Only you have the power to allocate your own preferences. Take a leaf out of the Green voter playbook. Love them or hate them, Greens voters know how to use the system.
Michael Arbon tweet media
English
19
3
24
1K
Michael Arbon
Michael Arbon@arbsmichael·
Michael Arbon@arbsmichael

Greens voters are the most disciplined. 88% of Greens voter preferences flowed to Labor at the 2025 federal election. The 2022 South Australian state election shows the same pattern: 🍉 81.2% of Greens voter preferences flowed to Labor 🐶 69.8% of Animal Justice Party voter preferences flowed to Labor Contrast this with One Nation voters, whose preferences were far more evenly split: 46.8% to Labor and 53.2% to the Liberals. Similarly, Family First votes which flowed 47.4% to Labor and 52.6% to the Liberals. It’s not just the direction of voter preferences that is less disciplined on the right; it’s the use of preferential voting itself. In the 2022 South Australian upper-house election (the white ballot), two-thirds of voters simply wrote “1” above the line and stopped. It was Greens voters who were most likely to number beyond 1. 44.6% continued their preferences, compared to just 24.2% of One Nation voters. If you just vote “1” above the line and your chosen candidate does not receive sufficient votes to reach a quota (and be elected), when they are excluded, your vote will likely exhaust because no further preferences were marked. If you had continued to number your preferences, your vote would remain active and be transferred to the next best option you chose that’s still in the race. Every exhausted vote is a wasted vote that increases the relative power of ballots remaining in the count. To reduce the risk of your vote expiring worthless, I suggest allocating preferences as far as you can. And remember, parties do not control your preferences in South Australia. How to vote cards are a suggestion, not an instruction. Only you have the power to allocate your own preferences. Take a leaf out of the Green voter playbook. Love them or hate them, Greens voters know how to use the system.

English
0
0
1
22
Michael Arbon
Michael Arbon@arbsmichael·
The spurious influence of Nicola Spurrier continues to impact the health of South Australians.
Michael Arbon tweet media
English
1
11
29
544
MattA
MattA@MattAjspider·
@arbsmichael Dwelling - a place of shelter. Dwelling could mean a 4 bed 2 bath house or a 1 bed 1 bath apt, completely different capacity for shelter. It’s similar to household income or individual income vs house prices. It’s a slight of hand
English
2
0
1
37
Michael Arbon
Michael Arbon@arbsmichael·
Great discussion last night with Professor Gigi Foster and @ProfJoannaHowe on the big issues shaping the SA election. Catch the replay below: SA Election 2026 – Understand Your State Election Before You Vote vimeo.com/1173130457?ref…
English
0
0
0
250