Scott Ingram REALTOR®

Yeah, I've been watching this collision course too :) We're currently 1750 lower than peak 2025, 600 lower than peak 2024, and 80 lower than peak 2023. Next thing I'm watching is whether we hit that 3455 from 2024 (which was one of 3 of the 8 past years to peak in fall versus spring).

@areacode416 Would be great to see the '26 line cross the '25 in the coming week(s) - not that '25 was great, but it's a start.

Weekly 416 Active Listings and MOI look-in👀 Freeholds (houses) +105 for the week. That's up +3.8% w/w. Last year the first two weeks after March Break were +7.9% and +8.3%, so slower jump. You can see this year's curve is a lot less steep than 2025. /1

Whoops - forgot to post the MOI chart this week. The jump in sales outpaced the increase in listings so MOI ⬇️ for both ownership types. Freehold is at its lowest point since 2024.

Out of curiosity I looked up the peak week of rolling 30 days of sales for each of the last 5 years. I was surprised how much it jumped around, but then again these have been a funky few years. Last year was so late. Median result for each was in May (16 for Freehold, 7 for Condos). My guess at this point for this year is April or May. /4

I was surprised at the jump in rolling 30 days of sales for both ownership types. -Freeholds climbed from 769 to 832 (+8.2%), which I just noticed is higher than last year at this same week (797). -Condos went from 960 to 1041 (+8.4%), which surprised me. Pretty much equal to last year (1043) /3

Condos only gained 72 listings in the week (+1.2%). Also on a slower curve than the last two years. /2

I don't know why "stats" is in quotations there. It's a statistic whether you believe it tells anything meaningful or not. I know whatever amount something is underlisted by is irrelevant. But people usually use this pricing method when they feel the market (in their area, for their property) merits it. So to me, it's simply a measure of market sentiment. And if you look at the highs and lows of this stat it lines up perfectly with hottest and coldest periods. (We're in a colder one now.)

@areacode416 Not beating up on you Scott, I've long time appreciated lots of your content but these "stats" are silly RE filler, if they posted the inverse I'd have a little more time for them :)

Freehold sales over asking in the 416 this year: January 27% February 33% March MTD 38%

The other problem is that most people when they think of Condos, they think of condo apartments, when in fact it's just an ownership type and includes condo townhouses. I looked up Pickering condo sales in Feb 2022 and of 169 sales, only 4 were over $1M, so yeah, that quoted figure is way off. Top 50 most expensive were all townhouses. Only 1 condo apt > $850K.

There are two problems with this analysis 1⃣ The Feb 2022 price for Pickering is obviously an error, maybe by the source, not the Star 2⃣ Suburban municipalities like Pickering have very few condo sales in any given month and small samples skew the data thestar.com/real-estate/co…

Toronto Star Headline: Pickering condo prices have crashed by 57% since February 2022 Fact Check: NO, they have not! Because at no time did a typical Pickering condo cost $1.1M

I missed this last week. Is this a $300M of public money bailout for developers by the provincial government? They're buying units in newer buildings (completed 2023 or later) that have unsold inventory, then renting them out. Don't know why this is the "Build Ontario Fund" if they're already built. And now we're all landlords? newsfilecorp.com/release/288033…

@rob_siglio My *guess* is Uptick, yes but Sharp, no. I think we'll end up between 2019 peak and 2025 peak, but closer to 2019 (last "regular" year before COVID). Now - get back to your vacation! 🌴

@areacode416 Do you think we see a sharp uptick in actives in the coming weeks? Or do things stay on current trajectory and top out around 2019 levels?

Your weekly 416 Active Listings and MOI look-in. Freeholds are unchanged at 2,746. Often sellers withhold coming out during March break week. Next Tuesday likely to be close to this number also, then will start Spring climb from there. Getting close to 2025 number (+129 now). 🧵/1

Over the last 10 years March has had the lowest average Freehold (house) MOI. Not a big drop this year yet. Buyers are already out there and sellers haven't caught up (maybe waiting for curb appeal after snow). March at 89% of May sales, but only 68% of listings (10-yr avgs).

For MOI things stayed within 0.1 months for both types, and are in line with the fairly stable Nov/Dec levels. /4

Condos are +95 week over week. Not quite as tied to March break timing since less families in Condos. Still sitting high as no investors are buying but many are trying to sell. /3

I feel like it still needs some work (and not just the peeling paint). It seems silly to me when I'm stuck in a long single lane of cars with no streetcars in sight. I feel like it should be like ambulances, where when a streetcar is coming you need to pull over and get out of the way (not that a lot of jackasses are good at doing that either). Or just make it during certain hours of the day.

Is anyone actually enforcing this on Bathurst?!?! Tons of cars just using it still...

While listings grew, sales have continued to climb so ended up with MOI staying flat. And both ownership types are back to the levels that were relatively flat in Oct through Dec. /3

Freeholds (houses) also ⬆️this week after an unusual dip last week, and is sitting above the two-weeks-ago number. The +144 w/w change is the largest increase this year (and largest since Sept 2025). /2

Weekly active listings and MOI look-in🔎 Last week unusually had declines in active listings, but this week Condo listings bounced back to be net-above where things were two weeks ago. The 5717 are over 600 less than the same time last year, but obvs still high for recent history. The +280 w/w increase is the largest this year.🧵/1