Omt 🇨🇦

@areacode416 Bring on the data :)

Yeah, I've been watching this collision course too :) We're currently 1750 lower than peak 2025, 600 lower than peak 2024, and 80 lower than peak 2023. Next thing I'm watching is whether we hit that 3455 from 2024 (which was one of 3 of the 8 past years to peak in fall versus spring).

Weekly 416 Active Listings and MOI look-in👀 Freeholds (houses) +105 for the week. That's up +3.8% w/w. Last year the first two weeks after March Break were +7.9% and +8.3%, so slower jump. You can see this year's curve is a lot less steep than 2025. /1

@PHfloor 3 solution as an aspiring home buyer: lower your standards, stop pining for things you can't afford, or go make more money. Complaining on Reddit to your fellow downtrodden isn't going to solve your issue.

Canada had a housing "shortage" in the 1990s, we made up for in the the 2000s. Since then we've been okay, no?

@PHfloor There's always a surplus of houses people want but can't afford, and there's always a shortage of houses people want and can.

@DrCameronMurray 3 solution as an aspiring home buyer: lower your standards, stop pining for things you can't afford, or go make more money. Complaining on Reddit to your fellow downtrodden isn't going to solve your issue.

It surprises me that many people confidently know how many homes there should be. They loudly claim that the current quantity is the wrong one. “There’s a housing shortage!” they scream. Here, I dig into why this shortage never seems to get solved fresheconomicthinking.com/p/so-about-tha…

@DrCameronMurray There's always a surplus of houses people want but can't afford, and there's always a shortage of houses people want and can.

@DavidSacks @HillValleyForum You assume all parents have the ability to make appropriate decisions. There are those who let their kids smoke, drink, get pregnant, commit crimes. You trust those parents to be 'empowered' for the good of their kids? Not saying the answer is more gov - but neither is "no gov".

Today I spoke at @HillValleyForum about the White House’s new National AI Framework. A vital part of it is our support for the online safety of children. Our north star is parental empowerment. I want to decide which apps my kids use and for how long. Probably you do too. I don’t want the government making those choices for me.

@rob_siglio On the plus side, the WoW increase seems lower than it was in 2025

Not seeing a break out when it comes to active listings. Many families tend to hold off until after March Break to list properties. With Easter only a couple weeks away (another long weekend with the kids... 😐) will we see an uptick between now and then? 2/4

Monday months of #TORE resale housing inventory from the airport. Wrapping it up in three charts this week, starting with MOI. For the second-straight week, MOI is down year-over-year. It's officially spring now. Will we see a competitive spring market? 1/4

@PHfloor Also, Japan started at a much lower baseline. The chart shows us normalized in 2017 - but Japan is dirt cheap for RE vs GTA (they don't value it the way we do - an old house is essentially worthless there) so it gives a false impression

How is it possible that residential property price growth in Japan is outpacing Canada's when its population is in outright decline?

@PHfloor Need more time to revert to mean. Canada overshot on the upside, now is overshooting the downside.

@bvisse @chamath It's only a matter of time before other states adopt similar measures. Odd that the progressive tax is a step function - something like a graduated scale from 1% to 10% (rising as income rises) would have been more equitable. But yeah: "votes". Go democracy.

As a Washingtonian, a HNW Household, and somebody who has started 3 businesses in WA State after a decent career at Microsoft I can only say this is all true and a very sad day for the state. The capital gains tax was the fist bad move by the state. The state also now has a massively punitive estate tax. I will be filing to leave the state this week. I am a small fish millionaire who has had enough. But mulitply this over many people as I am sure will happen, and this will really change the fabric of the state. After doing 20 years at Microsoft and starting 3 businesses. I can tell you for certainI will never start another business in WA now. Further, while for now I will keep a vacation home in WA, I will sell at least one of my other properties there if not two. Understanding that left wing losers will say that's great as they want cheaper housing. They may rethink that as property tax revenue falls. See detroit if you love the idea of cheap property... I know may millionaires in WA state, and a high percentage are leaving now or considering it. My CPA tells me that they are slammed with people planning their exit strategy. The brain and capital drain will be very real. Sad sad day - this is not leadership - it's a stunning betrayal of the constitution of the state, and a business death sentence to the state.

Here is what a tax like this does: 1) It excites people with zero agency and infinite envy. Beware of these people. 2) It will keep middle class people firmly in the middle class with no real chance of getting wealthy if they stay in Washington State. It should be clear that this IS the strategy. Learned helplessness of the electorate will keep Washington State’s current elected officials in office. 3) It will never allow the upwardly mobile of building any assets or real wealth unless they move. Capping the American Dream is a dystopian and malevolent scheme. It cannot be a valid strategy. But unless droves of middle and upper middle class people leave Washington State, this strategy will win.

@MM2014455150282 @benjaminfelix At least in Toronto, have a look at active inventory levels and construction completions. Active inventory is down YoY for first time in 3 years, and the construction pipeline is quickly drying up due to no sales (condo market is 90% down from average). Key factors to watch..

@benjaminfelix Still falling. I can’t see 2026 or 2027 getting any better

It looks like we are in the worst real drawdown on record for Canadian residential real estate prices. Q4 1980-Q3 1984: -21% Q1 1989-Q4 1998: -20% Q1 2008-Q1 2009: -9% Q3 2017-Q3 2019: -3% Q1 2022-Q4 2025: -29%

@benjaminfelix As with equities, the periods of highest gains often come after the periods of highest losses

@Arby0ne @elonmusk Canada won 5x the number of medals per capita as the USA. Just sayin'..

@elonmusk Both the Men and the Women raked up the Maple Leaf 🍁

Grok Imagine

@ManyBeenRinsed @pooj1020 How is questioning a governing body considered fraud? I'm not defending her but my friend you may need a dictionary.

@SawyerMerritt @Tesla Pfft amateurs. Do Canada in the winter and I'll be impressed.

Review of @Tesla’s FSD (Supervised) from local media in Australia: "Driving in Australia will never be the same. Once you’ve driven with FSD for any length of time, it’s hard to imagine life without it. There’s no looking back. Tesla don’t want us to say this but is close to a robot car as you can get."

@ManyBeenRinsed Withdrawing cash is sus. Just wire omit out or get a draft.

Just went to a bank in Richmond Hill and I asked to take out $5000 and the teller had the audacity to ask me ‘is there a specific reason for this?’ Fuck I almost lost it … then to add insult to injury they made me sign some bitch ass liability waiver cuz I took my own money 😂

@PHfloor This pendulum swing is undoubtedly more severe than the last though. It will be interesting to see how far it travels when it reverses direction.

This is directionally correct...but at no time has housing production gone to zero.

@BenRabidoux He's hard to argue with because he's more or less a blowhard pandering to his doomer followers. Data is much more telling, if less entertaining.

Ron's a hard guy to argue with I have a view that single-family segment in big ON metros might start to bottom next year, but he lays out a compelling argument why that may not be the case

@ipadee @elonmusk AI slop

@elonmusk this is highly false

If current trends continue, Whites will go from being a small minority of world population today to virtually extinct!