Arjun Krishan Puri

294 posts

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Arjun Krishan Puri

Arjun Krishan Puri

@arjunkpuri

Exploring public data to decode private consumption in India

Gurgaon, India Katılım Ekim 2009
279 Takip Edilen799 Takipçiler
Arjun Krishan Puri
Arjun Krishan Puri@arjunkpuri·
@sathishg @chirag @gauravsabnis With Sleeper class passengers flat over 9 years - that suggests that capacity isn't a constraint on growth. And hence Railways likely wouldn't invest behind adding even more capacity.
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Chirag
Chirag@chirag·
Rail travel peaked in 2013. Draw your own conclusions why that happened.
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Arjun Krishan Puri
Arjun Krishan Puri@arjunkpuri·
@gauravsabnis Haha, wow, I would not have imagined that! But I suppose the convenience of being able to have multiple variants at lower cost (and less space occupied) is a real thing 🙂
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Gaurav Sabnis
Gaurav Sabnis@gauravsabnis·
@arjunkpuri When my American friend visited India with us, she was so fascinated and delighted by this variety of shampoos in every home. Like a buffet selection. That after returning to US, she started keeping sachets at home in addition to her regular bottles.
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Gaurav Sabnis
Gaurav Sabnis@gauravsabnis·
Yeah, this is a fascinating second order effect of what started in India as a poverty related distribution strategy. It became the default shampoo SKU even in wealthy Indian households. Keeping prices at lower levels. And making bottles the premium shelf occupying product!
Arjun Krishan Puri@arjunkpuri

@gauravsabnis @RB6188 I checked this for Dove shampoo - a 5ml sachet at Rs. 2 is priced at INR 0.4 per ml. Larger packs at MRP are priced in the range of INR 0.8 - 1.2 per ml, while a 1L pack selling online at a discount comes in at INR 0.7 per ml.

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Arjun Krishan Puri
Arjun Krishan Puri@arjunkpuri·
@kaliacynic @chirag @gauravsabnis Fair point - granular publicly-available data is hard to find in India, though. My approach is usually to use available public data and triangulate through multiple sources / indicators / datasets to get a sense of larger shifts.
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KaliaCynical
KaliaCynical@kaliacynic·
@arjunkpuri @chirag @gauravsabnis I think we have macro data suggesting a shift, but we need micro data, else all of us are speculating. There could be a lot or no causality :).
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Arjun Krishan Puri
Arjun Krishan Puri@arjunkpuri·
@narendran_93 @sajithpai No worries - I was referring to this part in the article :) 2nd Class is almost all unreserved - but has two subsegments - Ordinary (lower fares) and Mail/Express (higher fares). While total 2nd Class seats have increased, 2nd Ordinary seats have reduced.
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Narendran S
Narendran S@narendran_93·
@arjunkpuri @sajithpai Sir, I did go through the write-up, but I genuinely couldn't understand where this was pointed out. Please help?
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Sajith Pai
Sajith Pai@sajithpai·
A story in 4 charts of how rail travel in India isn't growing with the decline led by 2nd class seats. Sharp analysis by @arjunkpuri, one of my favourite thinkers + analysts - he does a lot more of his writing + thinking on linkedin though.
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Arjun Krishan Puri
Arjun Krishan Puri@arjunkpuri·
@RetirementYatra @sajithpai Yes, that's exactly the central question of this analysis - my hypothesis is that a drop in supply of the lowest-priced 2nd Ordinary trains (due to conversion to 2nd Mail/Express) led to many people avoiding travel altogether, rather than paying higher fares in a segment above.
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Arjun Krishan Puri
Arjun Krishan Puri@arjunkpuri·
@kaliacynic @chirag @gauravsabnis Yes, some amount of shifts from AC class train travel to road travel would certainly be happening. For 2nd Class passengers though, this may be less likely, as road travel (including bus) is comparatively more expensive.
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KaliaCynical
KaliaCynical@kaliacynic·
@arjunkpuri @chirag @gauravsabnis There is another trend as well. The average distance on railways is rising. Hypothesis: This is probably because of the shift to road for distances below 250 kms. As Trains get crowded, local road transport is being used more often.
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Arjun Krishan Puri
Arjun Krishan Puri@arjunkpuri·
@tkmknewshh @sajithpai Very interesting comparison, and shows how road travel could certainly be taking share from AC class train travel. Thanks for sharing!
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takmak
takmak@tkmknewshh·
@sajithpai @arjunkpuri Family of 3 travels 500km by car since 2013 Cost: 25ltrs diesel Rs2.7k. Tolls Rs0.9k. En route snacks Rs1.4k. Total Rs5k Disadvantage: 10 hr drive in day time to avoid night danger Advantage: Choice of time Train: Tkts Rs4.0k (2A), Taxi Rs0.4k, Snacks Rs0.9k. Total Rs5.3k.
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NK
NK@NKcanthink·
@arjunkpuri @chirag @gauravsabnis Bro, you didn't include the biggest problems we rail lovers face. Unreserved travelers usurping seats. Trains not being on time causing you to miss your connecting trains and ruining vacation. Tickets being usurped by dirty travel agents so tatkal never works.
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NK@NKcanthink·
@arjunkpuri @chirag @gauravsabnis Without Tatkal working properly, you can never do impulse trip on train. Everything has to be planned 1 decade ahead of your trip. So it is not just income deepening but quality of service being absolutely disgusting.
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Jacko
Jacko@Kotian_Jatin·
@DuttaAnirudha @sajithpai @arjunkpuri Mumbai suburban train passenger numbers are still not back to pre-covid levels though revenues are up as a gradual shift takes place to AC rakes. Also in the same period many road and metro projects have been commissioned in the city.
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Arjun Krishan Puri
Arjun Krishan Puri@arjunkpuri·
@neeraj880828 @sajithpai So actually, over FY13-25, total 2nd Class seats grew from 1.6-2M (though with a shift from lower-priced 2nd Ordinary to higher-priced 2nd Mail/Express), Sleeper seats grew from 1.1-1.3M, AC sleeper seats grew from 400K-1.4M. At a national level at least, capacity has grown.
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Anirudha Dutta
Anirudha Dutta@DuttaAnirudha·
@arjunkpuri @sajithpai Arjun, fascinating work. I didn’t have the fy26 data when I did the exercise last year. Till fy25, ac 3 tier passengers grew at 14% cagr (fy20-25) while seats grew at 18%. Our bottom quartile or half has very little, if any, discretionary spend and is most price sensitive.
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Keşfet

@kaul_vivek @sajithpai @sathishg @chirag @gauravsabnis @kaliacynic @narendran_93 @msnavaneet