arnim holzer

@asianarbalot @DrJStrategy Actually, it’s your perspective that needs to come to reality. Denial is the human condition. We’re no longer in it. I think you’re a part of the world that’s still in denial and yes, it’s tough having to face the truth.

@arnimh @DrJStrategy To make that commwnt, you obviously have not been to that part of the world.

Food for thought. Trump, Hormuz and the End of the Free Ride For half a century, Western strategists have known that the Strait of Hormuz is the acute point where energy, sea power and political will intersect. That knowledge is not in dispute. What is new in this war with Iran is that the United States, under Donald Trump, has chosen not to rush to “solve” the problem. In Hegelian terms, he is refusing an easy synthesis in order to force the underlying contradiction to the surface. The old thesis was simple: the US guarantees open sea lanes in the Gulf, and everyone else structures their economies and politics around that free insurance. Europe and the UK embraced ambitious green policies, ran down hard‑power capabilities and lectured Washington on multilateral virtue, secure in the assumption that American carriers would always appear off Hormuz. The political class behaved as if the American security guarantee were a law of nature, not a contingent choice. Their conduct today is closer to Chamberlain than Churchill: temporising, issuing statements, hoping the storm will pass without a fundamental reordering of their responsibilities. Trump’s antithesis is to withhold the automatic guarantee at the moment of maximum stress. Militarily, the US can break Iran’s residual ability to contest the Strait; that is not the binding constraint. The point is to delay that act. By allowing a closure or semi‑closure to bite, Trump ensures that the immediate pain is concentrated in exactly the jurisdictions that have most conspicuously free‑ridden on US power: the EU and the UK. Their industries, consumers and energy‑transition assumptions are exposed. In that context, his reported blunt message to European and British leaders, you need the oil out of the Strait more than we do; why don’t you go and take it? Is not a throwaway line. It is the verbalisation of the antithesis. It openly reverses the traditional presumption that America will carry the burden while its allies emote from the sidelines. In this dialectic, the prize is not simply the reopening of a chokepoint. The prize is a reordered system in which the United States effectively arbitrages and controls the global flow of oil. A world in which US‑aligned production in the Americas plus a discretionary capability to secure,or not secure, Hormuz places Washington at the centre of the hydrocarbon chessboard. For that strategic end, a rapid restoration of the old status quo would be counterproductive. A quick, surgical “fix” of Hormuz would short‑circuit the dialectic. If Trump rapidly crushed Iran’s remaining coastal capabilities, swept the mines and escorted tankers back through the Strait, Europe and the UK would heave a sigh of relief and return to business as usual: underfunded militaries, maximalist green posturing and performative disdain for US power, all underwritten by that same power. The contradiction between their dependence and their posture would remain latent. By declining to supply the synthesis on demand, and by explicitly telling London and Brussels to “go and take it” themselves, Trump forces a reckoning. European and British leaders must confront the fact that their energy systems, their industrial bases and their geopolitical sermons all rest on an American hard‑power foundation they neither finance nor politically respect. The longer the contradiction is allowed to unfold, the stronger the eventual synthesis can be: a new order in which access to secure flows, Hormuz, Venezuela and beyond, is explicitly conditional on real contributions, not assumed as a right. In that sense, the delay in “taking” the Strait, and the challenge issued to US allies to do it themselves, is not indecision. It is the negative moment Hegel insisted was necessary for history to move. Only by withholding the old guarantee, and by saying so out loud to those who depended on it, can Trump hope to end the free ride.

@johnyc46 @MichaelARothman @JulieMenin @KathyHochul Cathy Hochul may end up getting so fed up with this that she uses the same power that Franklin Roosevelt used on Jimmy Walker. Impeachment is most easily done by the governor and Zo better watch his step or he lose the only Ally he actually has right now.

@MichaelARothman Great Read on Mamdani trying to intimidate NYC Council..it failed..@JulieMenin Standing strong for NewYorkers..@KathyHochul needs to watch how’s it’s done..

𝐍𝐘𝐂’𝐒 𝐒𝐎𝐂𝐈𝐀𝐋𝐈𝐒𝐓 𝐌𝐀𝐘𝐎𝐑 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐓 𝐇𝐈𝐒 𝐎𝐖𝐍 𝐏𝐀𝐑𝐓𝐘 — 𝐈𝐍 𝐇𝐈𝐒 𝐅𝐈𝐑𝐒𝐓 𝐁𝐔𝐃𝐆𝐄𝐓 𝐅𝐈𝐆𝐇𝐓 Zohran Mamdani hasn’t even finished his first year as mayor and he’s already managed the impossible — uniting 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 on the New York City Council against him. Not the Republicans. Not moderate Democrats. His own 𝐟𝐚𝐫-𝐥𝐞𝐟𝐭 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐬. Here’s what happened. City Council Speaker Julie Menin released an alternative to Mamdani’s proposed $𝟏𝟐𝟕 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 budget, arguing his projected $5.4 billion shortfall could be bridged with re-estimated revenues, savings, and creative funding — without Mamdani’s preferred method of taxing the rich. Mamdani’s response? He dropped a slick social media video calling Menin out by name and claiming her plan would “𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘴𝘭𝘢𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘥𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘳𝘴 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘢𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘺 𝘣𝘶𝘥𝘨𝘦𝘵𝘴.” One problem: it was a lie. And his own allies said so. Councilman Kevin Riley, a Mamdani backer from the Bronx, didn’t sugarcoat it: “𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘥𝘦𝘦𝘱𝘭𝘺 𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘱𝘰𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘮𝘧𝘶𝘭! 𝘐 𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘴𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴 𝘸𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘥𝘪𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘵.” Councilwoman Virginia Maloney fired back: “𝘐 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘩 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘥, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘊𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘊𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘭 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘵𝘦𝘢𝘮 𝘥𝘪𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘬—𝘥𝘪𝘨𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘭𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘥 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭 𝘴𝘰𝘭𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴. 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘊𝘪𝘵𝘺’𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦, 𝘸𝘦’𝘳𝘦 𝘫𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘣𝘢𝘥𝘭𝘺 𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘢𝘨𝘦𝘥.” Progressive Caucus leader Jen Gutiérrez — a 𝐟𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐥𝐞𝐟𝐭𝐲 — shot down Mamdani directly: “𝘚𝘭𝘢𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴? 𝘈𝘣𝘴𝘰𝘭𝘶𝘵𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘯𝘰𝘵. 𝘐’𝘷𝘦 𝘴𝘦𝘦𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘬𝘴 𝘭𝘪𝘬𝘦 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯. 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘴𝘯’𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵; 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘯𝘰 𝘤𝘶𝘵𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴. 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘸𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘦, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘸𝘦 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘣𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘵.” Majority Leader Shaun Abreu, another Mamdani ally, reposted Gutiérrez’s response and added: “𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘊𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘊𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘭 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘤𝘶𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴. 𝘞𝘦’𝘳𝘦 𝘧𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘵𝘦𝘤𝘵 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘨𝘳𝘢𝘮𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘧𝘢𝘮𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘰𝘯.” Even the 𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐒𝐨𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐬 on the Council — Avilés, Cabán, Hanif, and Ossé — issued a joint statement that 𝐩𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐝𝐥𝐲 𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐮𝐬𝐞𝐝 to repeat Mamdani’s attacks on Menin. Ossé went further on his own: “𝘐 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘊𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘊𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘔𝘢𝘺𝘰𝘳 𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘴𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘨𝘰𝘢𝘭 𝘰𝘧 𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘤𝘶𝘵𝘴.” And how did the thin-skinned mayor handle the backlash? He started 𝐭𝐞𝐱𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐥 𝐦𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐬 to complain about their tweets. A source told the 𝘕𝘦𝘸 𝘠𝘰𝘳𝘬 𝘗𝘰𝘴𝘵: “𝘛𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘝𝘪𝘳𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘢 𝘔𝘢𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘦𝘺 𝘵𝘸𝘦𝘦𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘨𝘰𝘵 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘴𝘬𝘪𝘯.” Another insider was blunter: “𝘏𝘦’𝘴 𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘭. 𝘏𝘦’𝘴 𝘧𝘭𝘢𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘨. 𝘏𝘦 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘦𝘹𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘮𝘦𝘮𝘣𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘰 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘪𝘯 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘵𝘸𝘦𝘦𝘵𝘴. 𝘐𝘵’𝘴 𝘢 𝘭𝘪𝘦, 𝘩𝘦’𝘴 𝘢 𝘭𝘪𝘢𝘳.” A council source summed up the damage: “𝘚𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘔𝘦𝘯𝘪𝘯 𝘥𝘪𝘥 𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘫𝘰𝘣, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘺𝘰𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘱𝘰𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘥 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘢 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘥 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘬, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵’𝘴 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘢𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘤𝘵 𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘱 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘳𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘭 𝘮𝘰𝘷𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘸𝘢𝘳𝘥.” Another source called him a “dictator” for the way he filmed himself sitting behind the desk in his video. 𝐅𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐛𝐮𝐝𝐠𝐞𝐭 𝐟𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭. 𝐋𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐲. 𝐖𝐞𝐥𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐦𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐢 𝐚𝐝𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧.

@MichaelARothman This would involve the governor and/or a process of the city Council with charges that would have to be brought. It’s not quite like the impeachment of a president.

@MichaelARothman There is a process for impeachment. It would be smart to start looking into the details…..

Additionally, there are a lot of sunshine rules in New York City government. Citizens and public advocates should attend as many meetings as possible and ask the brutally honest questions. The press will have to show and write about these meetings, but I still think impeachment is a possibility.

Elon does with his capital what our society desperately needs! He takes risk and embarks on ambitious, audacious multiplicative projects. Warren's envy and mendacity are only surpassed by her personal failure to produce. Everything she does or says is purposed to take away from the successful and limit progress. Her disdain for quality and vitality seem to ooze from her very presence and are evident for anyone with an open mind...

He has so much wealth because he’s built several companies whose services millions of us are willing to pay for!

@JaniceDean Find the school with the combination of best Div 1 sports and PT combine Masters Doctoral program. The experience of working with the athletes and getting out with the PhD seems what sets PTs apart...

Any advice you can give me as we start college searching for Matthew? He’s looking at a career in physical therapy, and also wants to be able to continue his music studies. Added bonus: somewhere warm. ☀️

For the midterms, these truths need to be projected to all voters. progressives might say orange man bad but at some point they have to say my green being wasted-stolen worse. When does how government executes matter more than the popularity contest progressives want to project? The ads will basically write themselves.

It’s is quickly being revealed that California’s oversized budget and taxes aren’t because of brilliant bureaucratic programs and thoughtful spending but laziness, incompetence and corruption.

@JetYap @DrJStrategy But it's much easier to build a golden dome around a canal or a pipeline than the whole strait...

@arnimh @DrJStrategy Just takes a missile to close the canal

@libertyforthee @lurker788228216 @DrJStrategy But opening up the thinking does make sense.

@lurker788228216 @arnimh @DrJStrategy I am really not a proponent of the canal. A pipeline would be a heck of a lot cheaper. Opening the strait is the best option, and maybe a pipeline.

@FrankDo79440165 @brithume Nice and polite. Reality is conspiracy theories are too easy and are usually propaganda or misinformation. Experience usually shows they are a waste of time everywhere but in movies…

@arnimh @brithume So why has international investigating only happened this year?? Because it is ALWAYS there You seem like an intelligent guy but somewhat afraid to be wrong about some things? Education is key. BLACKROCK control banking, weapon sales, political interests in many countries

This. All of it.

@SumErgoMonstro @DrJStrategy But the batteries that defend in iron dome like fashion can be permanently mounted on the canal

@arnimh @DrJStrategy Aren't the ships in the canal always moving? Except for situations like Ever Given, which was Very Bad.

@SumErgoMonstro @DrJStrategy But a defensive battery could be mounted on the stationary canal like what they do in Israel and some of the other Middle Eastern countries. The reason ships are vulnerable is because they’re always moving.

@arnimh @DrJStrategy Because a canal is just a really long, artificial strait. And Iran would be able to fire rockets at ships in a canal just like they can in the natural strait.

@hankparmstrong @DrJStrategy While this is an AI generated concept, it might not be so crazy...youtube.com/watch?v=o1Qxnt…

@arnimh @DrJStrategy Mountains

These politicians have demonized the wealth that the super rich have created in order to misdirect us away from the ill gotten & unproductive ways politicians have generated their wealth. How about taxing the gains politicians make while serving in govt and for 3 years after at a higher rate based on highest bracket. That with term limits might create better incentives, no?

Check this out.

Oldest mistake in the book! Post confuses correlation with causation.Prosperous countries like Norway, Singapore & Luxembourg got rich first via capitalism (markets, property rights, high economic freedom), then added welfare later.They’re not socialist. Socialism = gov’t ownership of production.2026 Economic Freedom: Singapore #1 (84.4) Luxembourg #6 (79.7) Denmark #7 (79.0) Norway #8 (78.8)Nordic model = welfare capitalism. Wealth first, safety net second. Reverse it and it fail. Increase it and it will fail faster!

Don’t confuse welfare states with socialism. They are not the same. These governments either control the means of production or they don’t. And I’m no fan of welfare states either but there is no example of a country that exerts great control over the corporate/production/business sector that’s achieved sustainable success…the fact that you don’t address the distinction suggests you are a propagandist..

It's socialism — not capitalism — that creates prosperity. Norway has one of the strongest welfare systems in the world. In Singapore, most people live in housing built by the government. In Luxembourg, social spending as a share of GDP is among the highest in the EU. Most countries that score well on this chart do so because they have socialist policies in place that increase social mobility and reduce economic precariousness.

Those who want to espouse the pessimistic view that the admin's economic policy is sure to send us into the abyss are confused. Data (Mar jobs) supports a transition- not imminent recession. Most strategist keep focusing on wrong thing. Don't perseverate on rates, levels, and war timing. More structural variables means volatility is what needs to be incorporated. #Goodhedgedequityworks

@elonmusk Were any major actors collecting? Just wondering? Crazy data if real!

Wow

@chamath It is so amazing to me that some folks are so energized by the Epstein files which may yield some surprises but aren't equally or more exasperated by the Billions of $$$ fraud that is being uncovered for real every day. Kind of makes you wonder about some folks' sanity...

Impeach Newsom