Andras Sasdi
389 posts


🚨 LEOPOLD ASCHENBRENNER IS OFFICIALLY BETTING BILLIONS THAT THE AI HARDWARE BOOM HAS PEAKED.
The exOpenAI researcher who was fired for warning that China could steal their AI models then turned $225 million into $5.5 billion in 12 months just filed his Q1 2026 13F with the SEC.
One quarter ago he had $5.5 billion in disclosed equity exposure. As of March 31, 2026 that number is $13.67 billion. The portfolio nearly tripled in a single quarter across 42 positions.
He initiated $7.46 billion in put options against every major semiconductor company between January 1 and March 31, 2026.
None of these positions existed in his Q4 2025 filing.
- SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF PUT: $2.04 billion
- Nvidia PUT: $1.57 billion
- Oracle PUT: $1.07 billion
- Broadcom PUT: $1.01 billion
- AMD PUT: $969 million
- Micron PUT: $583 million
- Taiwan Semiconductor PUT: $535 million
- ASML PUT: $494 million
- Intel PUT: $159 million
For the past 18 months Aschenbrenner was betting only on electricity, memory, compute, and physical data center infrastructure. That made him one of the best performing fund managers in the world. And his long stock book still reflects that exact same thesis.
- Bloom Energy: $878 million
- SanDisk: $724 million
- CoreWeave: $556 million
- IREN: $401 million
- Core Scientific: $389 million
- Applied Digital: $320 million
- Riot Platforms: $142 million
- CleanSpark: $104 million
- Solaris Energy: $62 million
- T1 Energy: $43 million
- Bitfarms: $38 million
- Bitdeer: $29 million
- Power Solutions: $26 million
- WhiteFiber: $20 million
- Babcock and Wilcox: $19 million
- SharonAI: $18 million
- ProPetro: $13 million
- Hive Digital: $6 million
He is also running call options on specific names at the same time as his puts, which means he is not simply betting against semiconductors everywhere.
- Micron CALL: $422 million
- SanDisk CALL: $388 million
- Taiwan Semiconductor CALL: $354 million
- CoreWeave CALL: $140 million
- Bloom Energy CALL: $55 million
This means he believes the companies supplying power, storage, and compute to the AI industry still have years of growth ahead of them.
But the chip companies that Wall Street has been buying for the past two years at record valuations have already priced in everything good that is going to happen to them.
The man who has been right about every major AI trade for the past 18 months is now betting that the biggest names in semiconductors are about to fall.
If his track record means anything, the chip stocks Wall Street has been buying for the past two years may be in serious trouble.


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MV was the one who brought NBIS to my attention. 🫡🙏👊
Thanks again!
M. V. Cunha@mvcinvesting
New all-time high, and officially an 8-bagger for me. $NBIS changed my life.
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$HIMS - another desperate attempt at avoiding bankruptcy.
Hims & Hers Comms@HimsHersComms
Introducing Labs AI, the first AI care agent from Hims & Hers. Built with guardrails, Labs AI uses a custom-built AI system to deliver personalized health insights while helping address nuanced questions. Learn more from CTO Mo Elshenawy: news.hims.com/newsroom/meet-…
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@johhnyWalkerAZ How is 100 million shares coming to market if the ATM is 350 million?
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This is a catastrophic signal for neoclouds like $CRWV and $NBIS.
These companies exist because compute was scarce. When someone like SpaceX enters the rental market with 220,000 GPUs at once, they become the 800lb gorilla.
SpaceX has the advantage of vertical integration and they can underprice neoclouds into oblivion just to keep their utilization rates at 100%.
Anthropic was a crown jewel customer for specialized clouds. If they are moving their heavy lifting to SpaceX then the moat for neoclouds just evaporated.
Now regarding xAI:
Colossus 2 is supposed to bring them toward 1 million GPUs, but if they can't even utilize the first 200k for a winning internal model, the Gigafab becomes a massive, expensive monument to overcapacity for them.
If xAI had a model capable of leapfrogging GPT-5 or Claude 4, they would be using every single one of those 220,000 H100s/GB200s to train it. You don’t let a direct competitor take over your primary training ground unless:
- xAI’s research might have hit a wall where throwing more compute at Grok isn't yielding proportional returns.
- Maintaining a 300MW facility with 200k+ GPUs costs billions in power and debt service. If they can’t justify the internal training run right now, they have to rent it out to stop the bleeding.
- Musk will clean up the books for a SpaceX IPO. Renting out the hardware makes SpaceX a high-margin infra provider rather than a high-risk research lab.
$TSLA
Claude@claudeai
We’ve agreed to a partnership with @SpaceX that will substantially increase our compute capacity. This, along with our other recent compute deals, means that we’ve been able to increase our usage limits for Claude Code and the Claude API.
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People keep hearing “human to human transmission” with Andes hantavirus and immediately thinking COVID 2.0.
That is not how this works.
The key metric is called “R” or R0. It measures how many people, on average, one infected person spreads the virus to.
If R is:
Below 1 = outbreak usually dies out
Above 1 = outbreak can grow
Far above 1 = potential mass spread
Original COVID had an R around 2 to 3.
That means 100 infected people could quickly become 200, then 400, then 800+.
Measles is even crazier at 12 to 18.
Andes hantavirus appears to be below 1 overall, with only limited spread in very close contact situations.
That’s why health officials are watching it carefully, but not treating it like a likely pandemic virus right now.
High mortality does not automatically mean high pandemic risk.
This is not a new pandemic. So just chill.
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@alc2022 I don’t care until i see paid subs growth accelerating. Dau/mau does not mean anything unless they convert to paid subs. Paid sub growth was just 300k in the quarter.
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