Ash

@DylanBallard_UK @marcum89 Winner!!!!!

As the social media world knows… My 20 month old son is obsessed with Oweh… Here is his reaction to the shot 😼🥺

Donald Trump has done about 50 years of damage in a little over a year. We’ll be back in the Stone Age before he’s done.

@RealFakeBlake Actually cannot wait to see this movie. Im about to dm you something.

@ashbergh I’ve had it coming for years.

fitting they made this PG-13. Kids any younger definitely need a parent around to see Michael.

@mrjojostephens I straight up saw their coach and knew we were in for their best effort and a heck of a gameplan. His looks were not deceiving.

One other bonus to Kentucky’s win: Herb Sendek looks almost exactly like Seth Greenberg, so it just feels good to send him home - next best thing 💀 (I’m sure I’ll get blocked for this 😂) #BBN

@jchasebrown @KySportsRadio Always do.

Looks like those extra reps paid off

Jesus called Chuck Norris up and about to begin war plans. Devil is cussing.

Defining remark of our era.

@FarmerBraxton I cant wear canvas shoes. Step outside and theyre dirty.

@ashbergh Shiiiit, too real. These got instantly dirty, but could go pretty well with that jersey!

Huge if true 😍

@RealFakeBlake My bracket is all about pride and I dont have much of that. Upsets galore!!!

You ever hear people root against the upset for what it would do to their bracket and just know you’re fundamentally different as a human being?

@DamnNearWhite 100%

@ashbergh He rode with it a little too long but it was still impressive as hell

Siena did this running their starters the whole game?!?!? Wtf

@jasonrmcintyre I have TCU for the upset. I think they'll be able to shoot with Duke.

Ken Pom 76-63 Duke over TCU I see Duke -10.5

“We are manufacturing a whole new generation of terrorists in the Middle East,” former U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel tells me, saying the Trump administration's conduct of its war in Iran appears to him unprecedented.

@JeffreyBrower1 Man they were hot. A 2 minute rest may could have won that game. Oh well. Heck of a showing.

@ashbergh That’s not smart. No wonder they’re fading. Weird.

Sienna tried. Good games. Vandy seems to have this. Tip of the cap to McNeese State. Great team. Peace.

Nigels on site Trudysvault.com

The egg on your plate this morning was made from corn. Not literally. But the hen that laid it ate roughly two pounds of feed for every dozen eggs she produced. That feed was primarily corn and soybean meal. The corn was grown with nitrogen fertiliser at $610 per ton on the CBOT March settlement. The soybean meal came from beans planted on acres that used to grow corn before the fertiliser price made the switch inevitable. The plastic tray the eggs sit in was moulded from polyethylene derived from Gulf naphtha. The refrigerated truck that delivered them to the store runs on diesel refined from crude that once transited Hormuz. The egg does not know it is a nitrogen derivative. The receipt does. American egg prices had been falling. Wholesale dropped to roughly 70 cents per dozen by early March 2026, down more than 90 percent from the $8.53 peak during the 2025 avian flu crisis. Retail averaged about $2.50 per dozen in February. The flock rebuilt. Nine million more hens than a year ago. Egg production was recovering. The USDA projected egg prices to decrease 27.4 percent in 2026 from 2025 levels. That projection was published before the strait closed. The protein cascade runs through every animal product in the supermarket. Corn becomes feed. Feed becomes poultry, beef, pork, dairy. Each conversion step multiplies the input cost. A $610 urea price raises corn production costs. Higher corn costs raise feed costs. Higher feed costs raise the price of every protein that eats corn: eggs, chicken, beef, pork, milk, cheese, yogurt. The cattle herd is at 86.2 million head, a 75-year low. Fewer animals eating more expensive feed produces less protein at higher prices. The Renewable Fuel Standard consumes 43 percent of the corn crop as ethanol feedstock. That mandate is written into law. It does not flex when fertiliser prices surge. The RFS takes its 15 billion gallons first. Whatever corn remains feeds the animals. When the total corn crop shrinks because farmers switch to soybeans, the RFS share of the smaller harvest becomes a larger fraction of available supply. The animals get what is left. Now add the packaging layer. Polyethylene for cling film and trays. Polypropylene for yogurt cups. PET for milk bottles. Every packaging material is petrochemical. The IRGC published satellite targeting images of the Gulf facilities that produce the naphtha that becomes the plastic that wraps the food. US PE spot prices surged 10 cents per pound. Indian PE jumped 20,000 rupees per tonne. Now add the freight layer. War risk premiums up 300 percent. VLCC charter rates quadrupled to $800,000 per day. Container surcharges of $500 to $1,500 per TEU added directly to the cost of imported and exported goods. Refrigerated truck diesel is priced off crude that sits above $100. Now add the insurance layer. The P&I clubs voided coverage. Solvency II requires 30 to 60 days of zero incidents before reinstatement. Even after a ceasefire, the logistics system lags the financial relief rally by months. Sticky inflation hides in the gap between the ceasefire headline and the insurance normalisation. Every layer compounds on the one before it. Nitrogen raises the corn. Feed raises the protein. Packaging raises the shelf. Freight raises the delivery. Insurance raises the duration. The grocery bill absorbs all five. The receipt at the checkout counter is the terminal node where every crisis in the series converges. A strait 11,000 kilometres away just repriced your breakfast. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

BREAKING: The world thought Hormuz was an oil story. Then it became an LNG story. If the damage assessment holds, it becomes a civilisation-input story that lasts half a decade. There is a difference between a shipping shock and a capacity shock that the market has not yet priced. A shipping shock traps molecules. The oil exists, the gas exists, the tankers are anchored, and when the strait reopens the molecules flow again. A capacity shock destroys molecules. The liquefaction trains that convert gas into LNG are physically damaged. The molecules cannot be produced even if every ship in the world is available to carry them. QatarEnergy’s CEO Saad al-Kaabi told Reuters that damage to Ras Laffan is severe. Repairs to impaired liquefaction capacity could take three to five years. Force majeure was declared on March 4 and has since escalated as the damage assessment worsened through March 18 and 19. Long-term contract buyers including Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China face multi-year delivery disruptions. Shell declared force majeure on cargoes it resells from QatarEnergy. The market must now confront a possibility it has refused to model: that roughly 17 percent of Qatar’s 77 million tonne per annum capacity is not delayed but structurally impaired. JERA’s CEO stated that the global LNG market does not have the spare capacity to bridge the gap if Hormuz-linked supply is meaningfully lost. That single sentence reprices everything. If the replacement molecules do not exist in sufficient volume, the adjustment mechanism is not alternative supply. It is fuel switching, demand destruction, and rationing by balance-sheet strength. Rich buyers can pay more. Poor buyers cannot. The poor buyers are already breaking. Vietnam’s diesel is up 40 to 59 percent. Australia’s petrol is up 70 cents per litre. Sri Lanka is rationing fuel with QR codes at 15 litres per car per week, a four-day workweek, and Wednesday school closures. India raised LPG prices while importing 85 percent of its crude through a strait that is 90 percent shut. Gulf air cargo collapsed 79 percent. Jet fuel surged 58 percent. IndiGo and Akasa imposed surcharges. Vietnam Airlines warned of shortages from April. Ninety-five countries have reported petrol price increases since February 28. Ras Laffan is not just LNG. It is helium, urea, methanol, polyethylene, and sulfur. The downstream cascade from a multi-year Qatari impairment runs through semiconductor fabrication, pharmaceutical synthesis, phosphate fertiliser production, food packaging, and desalination. The facility that is damaged produces the molecules that four billion people depend on for chips, medicine, fertiliser, plastic, and drinking water. Europe’s post-2022 gas security was built on Qatari LNG replacing Russian pipelines. A structural impairment does not merely make gas expensive. It makes gas unavailable to industry. That is how an LNG shock becomes a deindustrialisation shock. BASF and Yara are already cutting fertiliser output. Russian LNG fills the gap at 18 to 22 percent of European imports. The country Europe sanctioned is the country Europe now depends on because the country Europe trusted was struck in a war Europe refused to join. Anyone arguing this resolves quickly now carries the burden of proof. They must explain where the replacement molecules come from when the world’s largest LNG hub is physically impaired, the strait is commercially closed, and the CEO of Asia’s biggest power buyer says there is no bridge. The market priced a shipping delay. The evidence demands a capacity repricing. The difference between those two words is measured in years, in trillions of dollars, and in whether the lights stay on. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…