Ed Lu

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Ed Lu

Ed Lu

@astroEdLu

Finding a million asteroids!

Pale Blue Dot Katılım Ocak 2012
73 Takip Edilen11.3K Takipçiler
Ed Lu
Ed Lu@astroEdLu·
Can we can divert 2024YR4 to hit the Moon? No, the last kinetic impactor launch opportunity is in 2028, and would make the asteroid arrive sooner in 2032. The Moon on Dec 22, 2032 is waning, so this moves the asteroid even further from both the Moon and Earth.
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Ed Lu
Ed Lu@astroEdLu·
Range of potential asteroid 2024YR4 trajectories all missing the Moon on Dec.22, 2032.
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Ed Lu
Ed Lu@astroEdLu·
Some more detail: those are the RMS velocity and position dispersions of the current state vector. This is not from a single measurement, but from fitting the state vector through observations spanning 15 months.
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Ed Lu
Ed Lu@astroEdLu·
Let's take a moment to appreciate that our measurement of the current position of asteroid 2024YR4 is known to within 7km, and the velocity to within 1.2 mm/sec!
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Tony Dunn
Tony Dunn@tony873004·
Asteroid 2024 YR₄ will NOT hit the Moon. New JWST observations refined its orbit and reduced the 4% lunar impact probability to zero. Independent researcher Sam Deen had already reached the same conclusion using 2016 precoveries. science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetar…
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Ed Lu
Ed Lu@astroEdLu·
@cosmos4u Yes, those Precovery results seem to agree quite well with the orbit including these new JWST obs.
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Ed Lu
Ed Lu@astroEdLu·
The JWST obs of 2024YR4 required multiple hours long exposures. JWST tracked the asteroid, giving trailed images of background stars. The uncertainty in the measurement was calculated by analyzing the trailed stars together with the size of the asteroid image spread. Nice work!
Ed Lu tweet media
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Ed Lu
Ed Lu@astroEdLu·
This was impressive work by @NASA and @esa teams to get these JWST observations. We dodged a bullet this time!
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Ed Lu
Ed Lu@astroEdLu·
@DJSnM I'm not sure mandating a market share is the way to do it.
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Scott Manley
Scott Manley@DJSnM·
I can see SpaceX fans getting mad over this, but NASA's job is do do things that benefit US Spaceflight as a whole. And it is absolutely in the US's interest to have more than one launch provider.
Audrey Decker@audrey_decker9

Senate Commerce's reauth bill would prohibit NASA from acquiring more than 50% of launch services from one provider, according to bill text I obtained. SpaceX currently dominates the market. However, bill says the administrator can seek waivers

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Ed Lu
Ed Lu@astroEdLu·
JWST observes asteroid 2024YR4 again Feb 26. It will be a 5 hour 36 minute exposure! Probability of impact with the Moon in 2032 could drop to zero, or be as high a few tens of percent. We will see!
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Ed Lu
Ed Lu@astroEdLu·
NASA's assessment is that orbital debris is the biggest risk to astronaut lives. It has been since I flew last in 2003, and it continues today.
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Ed Lu
Ed Lu@astroEdLu·
The JWST observations yesterday of asteroid 2024YR4 took place. No results released yet, but the asteroid moves significantly over the 5 hour long exposure, so measuring the position takes some analysis.
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Ed Lu
Ed Lu@astroEdLu·
He makes a great point that just as how all companies in the 1990s had to come up with an "internet strategy" whereas that doesn't make sense today. All companies will become space companies.
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Ed Lu
Ed Lu@astroEdLu·
An insightful article by @jonnydyer. The extension of Moore's Law to space means we need to think of "infrastructure" i.e. not ground or space based. Plus a cool interactive model! jonny-dyer.com/blog/kepler-tu…
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Ed Lu
Ed Lu@astroEdLu·
Tomorrow the @NASA JWST will observe asteroid 2024YR4 in an attempt to refine its orbit (and again on Feb 26). Reminder there is a 4.1% chance this asteroid will hit the Moon on Dec.22, 2032. We should have an updated impact probability estimate soon.
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Ed Lu
Ed Lu@astroEdLu·
Caught a fly and fed it to my Venus Fly Trap!
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