Asymmetric Adventures

Well, if you haven’t use FSD, you likely won’t be able to understand how close it is to becoming superhuman at driving given the current rate of improvement and step change in gpu compute incoming. Now, with all your free time, you might consume more content. Maybe play some games. **Shameless Plug** I made some daily web games. Check out tinytrivia.games for daily trivia challenges and questions. (Its not your normal type of short, boring questions) Check out tinytiles.games for daily puzzles. Share your scores!

P.S. Had one of just a few critical disengagements today. To be fair, it was a totally wild situation with a dog running towards my car on the side of the paved road. FSD didn’t really respond when I would’ve, so I had to take over to make sure to avoid the dog. (To be fair, can't remember the last time I've seen a unleashed dog running on the road) I mean it’s not as bad as eating the cats and the dogs but still. Can’t happen @elonmusk. @ashokell plz fix You might be wondering if this is the case…why do you think full autonomy will be solved?

If Tesla charges $1 per mile and it costs roughly 50 cents per mile, that would result in a gross margin of 50% and likely operating margin of around 35%. Hmm.. what does that sound like? So, if Robotaxis are cheaper and a better experience than owning a car, what’s it worth? Let’s do some quick maths.

I had a whole segment of a breakdown of the cost per mile for Tesla and ended with a high end estimate of $0.60 per Mile. But during the event, Elon mentioned it’ll be closer to $0.20-0.30 a mile. So let’s use $0.50 cents, just to be safe. You can go and calculate what you or the average person pays per mile. But it’s likely cheaper and more convenient in most cases. And then there’s your value of time. (Thank god time doesn’t matter to a robot) If this is the case, I don’t know why anyone in a city will even own a car. And those in the suburbs will likely only need one car. In fact, it’ll probably turn into a luxury good. So…

Instead of building and maintaining data centers, use AWS. Instead of buying a car, use the Robotaxi. Turning big upfront fixed costs to variable costs. But is it really cheaper than buying a car? What’ll it cost?

Cracked windshield. Not your problem. Flat Tire. Not your problem. Brake Pads worn out. You get the point. Now, this may sound sad to the car enthusiasts out there, but, for the vast majority of people, this sounds great. (I’m pretty sure half the reason some people buy Tesla’s is because you can do it less than 10 mins from the comfort of your couch without talking to a single person)

So… Cloud infrastructure allowed companies to switch fixed costs like servers and data centers to variable costs. It’s much cheaper, more scalable, and less of a headache. One less thing to manage and worry about. The Robotaxi will do the same. Instead of buying a car, you’ll just pay as you go. It’ll be cheaper and more comfortable to use a Robotaxi. Not to mention the time you’ll save, especially for those sitting in stop and go traffic. Also….

Tesla’s Robotaxi is not Uber + Airbnb. It’s AWS. There seems to be a lot of confusion around the business model of a Robotaxi — especially among Wall Street and CNBC contributors. But I don’t get it. Even @elonmusk would like you to think it’s a combination of Uber and Airbnb. Other analysts keep trying to compare it to Uber and use it as the benchmark for the value of a ride hailing Robotaxi service. They’re all wrong. Here’s why the Tesla Robotaxi is the consumer version of AWS, why Cathie Wood is likely underestimating its value, and why this makes Tesla a 10x in 10 yrs opportunity (similar to @chamath 2016 pitch for Amazon). (Disclaimer - This is not financial advice. Just an idiot on the internet.)