Atalantis7

4.4K posts

Atalantis7

Atalantis7

@atalantis7

Not Financial Advice

Goblin Town Katılım Ağustos 2017
3K Takip Edilen14.4K Takipçiler
Atalantis7
Atalantis7@atalantis7·
Mean reversion is tricky because you will get busted during strong trends. It has a high win rate, but you'll get steamrolled on outliers (it's like selling VOL). So, you should combine it with a trend following / momo set of strategies. That said, here's how I would go about developing a meanrev system: 1/ To get a high quality mean reversion signal it’s best to combine several (semi) independent features into a ranked forecast -/+20. These features could include: - Price - Relative price (e.g. SOL/BTC) - Volume - Volatility - Aggregated Open Interest - Spreads - Liquidations - CVD Divergences (Absorbtion) 2/ For each of these inputs you should develop + backtest a mean reversion strategy and then combine them into an overall forecast. You can equally weight them 1/N or weight them based on their P3M or P6M performance. 3/ The best mean reversion signals happen when multiple timeframes align. So, as not to overfit I would use geometrically spaced timeframes (30 min, 1H, 2H, 4H, 8H, 1D) and combine them 1/N into a forecast for each feature. Then combine the different feature forecasts into an overall mean reversion forecast as mentioned under point 2/. 4/ Then create an hourly screener using python or even pine screener in tradingview to give you a universe of things you can trade. 5/ If you are click-trading these signals, I would also look at orderflow and passive orders before entering positions to increase your winrate/edge. Hope that helps!
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Jamiu
Jamiu@jamiu2X·
@atalantis7 Hello! unrelated but do you have a way of ranking likelihood of reversion/quality of a setup when your system gives you multiple reversion signals? I have a hunch my signals are not created equal but I’m helpless filtering
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Atalantis7
Atalantis7@atalantis7·
Nice breakouts over the past 2 days: $ENA, $TAO, $PUMP, $RAY. We need BTC to stay above the 200 d SMA for continuation otherwise these will likely be great buys again if we catch a bid next week.
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Atalantis7
Atalantis7@atalantis7·
he basically said that the US equity market is all leverage. the semis/AI boom is driven by rotation from gains from software. equity rallies were financed by buybacks but now all cash is going into AI CAPEX and on top of the FCF hyperscalers have started tapping into debt to finance the buildout. The bust likely comes when these companies IPO and employee vesting cliffs (unlocks) are reached.
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Atalantis7
Atalantis7@atalantis7·
earnings showed there’s no stopping the hyperscaler capex trend, so the show goes on. after a little digestion following april’s historic run, the HBF memory bottleneck could produce the next momentum leaders. $SNDK, $MU, $HXSCL, $SSNLF
Jukan@jukan05

"The Next Bottleneck After HBM Is HBF"... A Computing Pioneer's Prediction "I have been consistently paying close attention to High Bandwidth Flash (HBF). I'm also collaborating with semiconductor companies on this. HBF is highly likely to stand at the center of the next bottleneck — a surge in demand." David Patterson, professor at UC Berkeley, Turing Award laureate, and widely recognized as the architect of RISC (Reduced Instruction Set Computing — an approach that simplifies instructions to improve processing efficiency), made these remarks on April 30 (local time) when he met with reporters in San Francisco immediately after delivering a keynote at the Dreamy Next event. Asked about what comes after HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), which is currently in a supply-constrained bottleneck, Professor Patterson answered that HBF will emerge as the next focus. Specifically, he said, "Although a number of technical challenges still remain, the HBF being developed by companies such as SK hynix and SanDisk is a meaningful alternative in that it can deliver large capacity with low power consumption," adding, "Going forward, how efficiently data can be stored and delivered will become the critical variable." This past March, SK hynix announced that it had joined hands with U.S. flash memory company SanDisk to drive the global standardization of HBF. Unlike HBM, which stacks DRAM, HBF is built by stacking NAND flash — a non-volatile memory. Their roles are also distinct. While HBM serves as a fast computation aid, HBF is focused on storing the vast amounts of data that AI processes at high capacity. HBF is drawing attention as the AI inference market grows. The AI market is broadly divided into learning (training) and inference. Training is the process of feeding massive amounts of data to teach an AI model. Inference is the stage in which results are derived based on the trained data. In inference AI, the ability to continuously store and retrieve vast amounts of intermediate data — such as prior conversations, judgment outcomes, and task context — is crucial. This is because AI carries out reasoning by remembering context and building upon it. The problem is that all of this data is difficult to fit into HBM. Since HBM is optimized for handling data used immediately, its capacity itself is inherently limited. Moreover, given its high price, processing the enormous amounts of context data generated during inference using HBM alone would impose significant cost burdens. As a result, an environment has formed in which both HBM and HBF are needed simultaneously — a kind of division of labor. Domestic experts in Korea also anticipate that the importance of HBF will grow going forward. At an HBF research and technology development strategy briefing held this past February, Kim Jung-ho, professor in the School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering at KAIST, stated, "If the central processing unit (CPU) was the core in the PC era and low-power technology was the core in the smartphone era, memory will be the core of the AI era," adding, "What determines speed is HBM, and what determines capacity is HBF." He further predicted, "From 2038 onward, demand for HBF will surpass that of HBM."

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Arya Deniz
Arya Deniz@Arya__Deniz·
$NVDA / $SMH chart - $NVDA is breaking down relative to rest of $SMH components, but I think that trend will reverse soon. $NVDA being used as funding short to go long memory, and optical names is pretty obvious to me.
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Atalantis7
Atalantis7@atalantis7·
@playerwunza he’s just saying it pays to put in the hard work during bear markets and focus on crypto right now. while this may have been true in the past there is a hige opportunity coat of not participating in the .com 2.0
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Atalantis7
Atalantis7@atalantis7·
@MyFalseImage nah it’s just flows into earnings. dealers unwinding hedges imo
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kyozō
kyozō@MyFalseImage·
@atalantis7 saved by STX strength. Agreed on the quarter though, guess street expected stronger guidance
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Atalantis7
Atalantis7@atalantis7·
$SNDK down 10% post earnings despite posting monster numbers. wintermuted again
Imran Lakha | Options Insight@options_insight

This is one of the most reliable post-earnings setups in the market, and it's invisible to anyone not watching the skew. Setup: a stock is rallying into earnings. Skew shifts hard toward calls. Implied vol on upside strikes is bid. Retail and momentum funds are piling into upside calls. What's happening underneath: dealers are short those calls. To hedge, they buy stock. Lots of it. The stock keeps grinding higher, partly because of the dealer demand. Earnings prints. Even if the number is decent, vol gets smashed. That's mechanical — earnings vol always resets. Now the dealers have a problem. The calls they're short have just lost their Greeks. The delta on those calls is collapsing ... so what was a 30-delta call yesterday is a 10-delta call this morning. The stock they bought to hedge those calls? They no longer need it. So they sell. If the earnings number wasn't strong enough to push the stock through those call strikes and keep the deltas alive, the unwind cascades. Vol crushed. Delta crushed. Dealer hedges dumped into the tape. The stock rolls over even though the report wasn't bad. This is why "good earnings" stocks sometimes drop 8% the next day. It isn't the news. It's the structural unwind. If you see skew piling into upside before a print, you know the setup is loaded. Whether to fade it is a separate question. But the mechanics are real, and shows up over and over. We saw it with $TSLA and are seeing it with $MSFT overnight.

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Atalantis7
Atalantis7@atalantis7·
@short_cap yo-it’s generally -ve ev to advertise your short. why do it?
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(Aladhi) 🕯️ 🕳️
(Aladhi) 🕯️ 🕳️@FvckYourHedge·
@atalantis7 miss ya bro, We live on 3rd world country been rough. But finally back to trading full time. Got hired by a options desk. I am them news guy, they trade single stock options Gud stuff Looking better now brother @atalantis7 wish you the best man! Salutes from Mexico! 🇲🇽
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(Aladhi) 🕯️ 🕳️
(Aladhi) 🕯️ 🕳️@FvckYourHedge·
I am still polishing some stuff but mostly done, I will be using this for my stack, Think is handy, You can spect improve on Analysis some signals. I am not thinking on doing execution for now, but yes for the order books. For now the MATCHING engine is just a taker, nothing complex, good as a toy, and compares with bid/ask, Will improve with time. Here is the github:github.com/Sylar963/OAgrr… I also added new venues @Coincall_Global and @ThalexGlobal We all know where the most volume is but worth watching. it's Live" oggregator.xyz taggin some chads Creator: @0xdivergence the gang : @JeffLia12309881 , @satoshiheist , @josedonato__ , @CL207 , @0xLoris , @Grand85 , @TealFinance, @loraclexyz missed some more
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(Aladhi) 🕯️ 🕳️@FvckYourHedge

oggregator.xyz As I Promised my fork I up. You can make some paper plays. Tomorrow I will post the follow up correctly

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Atalantis7
Atalantis7@atalantis7·
@Arya__Deniz selling call spreads or do you expect a breakdown today?
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Arya Deniz
Arya Deniz@Arya__Deniz·
@atalantis7 Will add there also - $CAR $1,000 is a gift for short sellers
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Arya Deniz
Arya Deniz@Arya__Deniz·
Shorted more $CAR at $700 - round numbers, round numbers
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Atalantis7
Atalantis7@atalantis7·
@Macroedg3 this is not only beta. there have been dozens of names that have been up-only since november
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Atalantis7
Atalantis7@atalantis7·
transfer $$$ to IBKR, find stonks with catalysts or sectors that are breaking out and trade momentum burst (4% breakout on daily). ezy monies. haven's seen charts like this in brypto since 2024.
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Atalantis7
Atalantis7@atalantis7·
@0xShual SNDK is probably a recent textbook example of this. you had so many 4% breakouts that ran for 3-5 days
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Atalantis7
Atalantis7@atalantis7·
Momentum burst (4% breakout) is a very well known setup from Pradeep Bonde. Below is a quick summary for what he screens for. Key is really to find sectors that are breaking out and trade leaders or find stocks with catalyst/narratives (in play). Universe Selection - leading / narrative sectors - stocks with relative strength vs. sector - sectors: tech, biotech/health, consumer cyclicals - price > 10 and < 100 - float < 20M shares - mcap < $10bn - liquidity > 100k shares daily volume 4% breakout Setup Filters - linear moves : persistent institutional buying - young trend : 1st or 2nd breakout from consolidation - narrow day before breakout : lack / exhaustion of supply - quality of consolidation : shallow pullbacks, low volume mean lack of sellers - short consolidation : urgency of buyers (when > 10 days = lack of interest) - close near the high on 4% breakout : persistent buying on breakout day - not up 2 days in a row before breakout : stocks typically move in 3-5 day increments You can refine this much further, but this is the basic gist of it.
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Atalantis7
Atalantis7@atalantis7·
CAR: every asset class has their own RIVER or RAVE. after the 500% gain we've started to accelerate... so likely in the final innings (1-3 more days). $1000 entirely possible
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