Aurelix

$USAR — The Domestic Rare Earth Supply Chain Play Deeply Undervalued Amid Global Realignment After examination of SEC filings, the definitive acquisition agreement, offtake structures, and competitive landscape in critical minerals, USA Rare Earth, Inc. (NASDAQ: USAR) positions itself as a leading Western-aligned consolidator building a fully integrated mine-to-magnet supply chain for neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, and other heavy rare earth elements essential to defense, EVs, wind energy, and advanced electronics. The shares currently trade near $22.50 (up sharply on today’s volume), yet remain down over 45% from the 52-week high of $43.98 and well below analyst consensus targets. This follows the company’s announcement of a $2.8 billion definitive agreement to acquire Serra Verde Group, including the Pela Ema mine in Brazil — one of the few operating sources producing all four magnetic rare earths. Key elements from our analysis: -Transformative Acquisition: The deal, expected to close in Q3 2026, combines Serra Verde’s producing mine and 15-year, 100% offtake agreement (with price floors via a special-purpose vehicle) with USAR’s Round Top heavy rare earth project in Texas, Stillwater, Oklahoma magnet manufacturing facility, and emerging processing capabilities. Consideration includes ~$300 million cash and 126.8 million USAR shares, creating a scaled platform with immediate production and long-term resource security. -Strategic Western Focus: The transaction strengthens a secure, allied supply chain less reliant on dominant Asian processing. Complementary assets include recent alliances in France and investments enhancing magnet production for high-performance NdFeB applications. This aligns directly with U.S. and allied priorities for reducing critical mineral vulnerabilities in defense and clean tech. -Commercial and Operational Momentum: Appointment of a new Chief Commercial Officer, ongoing ramp at the Oklahoma facility, and growing offtake interest underscore execution progress. The combined entity is projected to significantly expand output of separated rare earth oxides and finished magnets. Analyst community views remain constructive despite recent volatility, with targets ranging from the mid-$20s to over $40 (e.g., prior Canaccord adjustment to $29; broader consensus around $30+). Roth MKM has highlighted strategic supply chain benefits from related investments. Risks warrant rigorous modeling: substantial share issuance in the acquisition (dilution), integration of international assets, execution on permitting and construction timelines at Round Top, pre-profit cash burn typical of vertical integration plays, and commodity price exposure. However, the velocity of the Serra Verde deal, secured offtake floors, and alignment with sovereign supply security imperatives suggest the market has yet to fully reflect the platform’s long-term strategic and revenue potential. $USAR offers high-conviction exposure to the secular re-shoring of rare earths and permanent magnets — where domestic/ allied production capacity, vertical integration, and geopolitical resilience are increasingly commanding premiums. The current valuation appears to underappreciate the step-change in scale and de-risking.

Victory Giant (Nvidia PCB supplier) IPO tomorrow in HK

Datacenters are now 7% of the us power demand

Margins > growth now. $PYPL printing: Rev: +4% YoY (decelerating) NI: +26% YoY (operating leverage kicking in) Net margin: 13% → 16% Cost discipline is the story. Flat opex, stable take rate, slight COGS improvement. This is no longer a growth asset ,it’s a margin expansion + capital return setup. Multiple re-rate only happens if they re-accelerate TPV or engagement. Right now: quality improving, narrative still broken.

Performance of stocks picked from my recent research article on photonics (April 2 → April 17, 2026) $IQEPF (IQE) +136% $SIVE +108% $AEHR: +89% $AXTI: +56% $AAOI: +53% $LandMark (3081.TWO): +42% $COHR: +34% $FORM: +33% $ENA.V: +32% $POET: +19% $MTSI: +16% $TSEM: +14% $LITE: +8% An Equal-weighted basket delivered roughly +44–50% in 11 trading days. This surge is tied directly to the AI data center buildout and exploding demand for silicon photonics, optical interconnects, and high-speed testing solutions. At Aurelix, I track these high-conviction themes with timely analysis and real portfolio picks. Want macro and cross asset research? second-order thinking on regime shifts translated into high conviction stock picks and trade ideas? You can read the full analysis here aurelixresearch.substack.com

$HIMS ripping +12% yesterday as the peptide regulatory signal shifts from restriction to potential expansion. RFK Jr. rhetoric + FDA panel chatter repricing the GLP-1/compounding margin compression narrative faster than consensus models updated. Volume exploding, short interest still elevated. May 11 earnings tests whether this is narrative drift or durable platform expansion. Edge lives in separating policy delta from realized subscriber economics, not headline gamma.

Markets are tagging records while the Iran ceasefire narrative races ahead of confirmation. Hormuz still choked. Gold above $4,700 with zero flinch on the “verdict.” Oil sticky at $100. This isn’t de-risking, it’s selective repricing where conditional tail distributions haven’t flattened. Monday’s earnings deluge starts separating narrative drift from realized fundamentals. Edge lives in Bayesian updates on regime shifts, not consensus headlines.

Wow. Hundreds of supertankers are headed toward the U.S. Gulf Coast from every direction.

China’s H₂SO₄ Export Ban: Nash Equilibrium Defection in Real Time May 2026: Beijing seizes the marginal molecule—smelter acid—halting exports to secure domestic phosphate while Hormuz sulfur flows remain choked. This is not supply friction; it is strategic preemption that instantly reprices the entire chemical skeleton of global industry. 60% of phosphate fertilizer + copper SX-EW chains fracture. EM yields drop, food CPI transmits 2–4% higher, Chilean/DRC leach curves invert. Pricing power now accrues exclusively to integrated, self-sufficient producers. Long NA phosphate moats $NTR, $MOS, $CF and captive-acid copper ( $IVN, Glencore). Short pure importers ( $Anto, $FM) whose variable costs explode. (Vague ideas)^^ forced deglobalization of critical inputs. Markets discount the headline, they miss the permanent entropy premium embedded in every downstream margin.

@SunvMikey Synthetic biology (biohacking/anti aging) Long longevity Ai + genetics, peptides all that jazz

What is the next bubble? In the last 18 months we've had quantum, nuclear tech, rare earths, drones, ai infrastructure, photonics. Im thinking robotics? What else is there? Trying to front run the crowd

$NFE trading near $0.68 after weeks of wild swings. The company just secured over 95% creditor support for a major restructuring plan aimed at slashing debt by up to 90%. They’re spinning off Brazilian ops, closing turbine sale-leaseback deals, and extending forbearance. High-risk, high-reward energy play in a world hungry for gas-to-power and LNG infrastructure. Volatility maxed — potential or trap?

Gold pushing above $4,700 heading into CPI. Third straight weekly gain. Oil holding $100. Vance heading to Islamabad this weekend to negotiate with Iran. Hormuz remains closed. The market just delivered its verdict on this “ceasefire.” Gold barely flinched. Held through the announcement, the reversal, and the pipeline hit. Three weeks of chaos later, and it’s trading higher than where it started. That’s conviction.

$OKLO — The American Nuclear Powerhouse Fueling the AI Boom $OKLO is trading around $48–50 right now, hammered down over 70% from its 52-week peak despite explosive momentum in advanced nuclear. Big money has taken notice. institutional ownership sits north of 85%, with hundreds of funds piling in over the past year amid surging demand for always-on, carbon-free power. What’s really moving the needle? The U.S. Department of Energy just greenlit a Nuclear Safety Design Agreement for Oklo’s first Aurora powerhouse at Idaho National Laboratory — the first major step under the new Reactor Pilot Program. This fast-tracks the path from groundbreaking (already underway) to scalable deployment of clean, firm power. No foreign fuel dependence. No endless regulatory delays. Just U.S.-designed fast reactors recycling nuclear fuel under domestic oversight, positioned to deliver gigawatts exactly where hyperscalers need it. $OKLO already locked in a groundbreaking 1.2 GW power campus deal in Pike County, Ohio, backed by a major agreement with Meta to support its AI data center buildout in the region. Pre-construction ramps up this year, with first power targeted as early as 2030. They’re also advancing isotope production and fuel fabrication milestones at INL and in Texas. Yes, it’s pre-revenue, cash-burn heavy, and capex-intensive — classic high-conviction nuclear risk. But the DOE velocity, hyperscaler commitments, and first-mover licensing progress paint a far more compelling picture than the current depressed valuation suggests. The AI power crunch is here. $OKLO is one of the few pure-play bets actually breaking ground on American solutions.

$IBRX Longevity Comparison Longevity/biotech research is accelerating in 2026: FDA milestone on lifespan extension as a goal, $8.5B+ sector funding, and immune reprogramming shifting from oncology adjacency to core immunosenescence targeting. $IBRX stands out with commercial revenue (~$113M in 2025, +668% YoY on ANKTIVA IL-15 superagonist + NK platform) and $381M cash runway. Durable innate/adaptive immune activation provides direct translational read-through to healthy aging protocols — beyond pure oncology. BCG-naïve NMIBC expansion on track; clinical longevity adjacency under-appreciated. Vs peers: • $UBX (Unity Biotechnology): Senolytic focus (clearing zombie cells), Phase II data in eye/osteoarthritis but repeated clinical setbacks, no revenue, high burn — higher binary risk. • Private giants like Altos Labs ($3B funding, epigenetic reprogramming in mice) or Calico (Alphabet-backed, proteostasis/mTOR): Deep basic science, elite teams, zero near-term revenue or clinical proof in humans — pure optionality, massive dilution potential if public. • Broader plays $NVO & $LLY GLP-1s): Metabolic benefits with mortality reduction signals, but indirect longevity (weight/CV focus), not immune reset. $IBRX offers asymmetric setup: revenue de-risking + immune platform convexity in a sector rotating toward human proof-of-concept over hype. Position for the re-rate as longevity moves from VC narrative to clinical revenue. Volatility expected; sizing accordingly.

$IBRX Longevity/biotech research is on the uprise immune reprogramming has moved from fringe to core as immunosenescence is now recognized as the primary driver of age-related decline. ImmunityBio’s IL-15 superagonist (ANKTIVA) + NK-cell platform delivers human proof-of-concept: durable innate/adaptive activation beyond oncology, with clear translational read-through to healthy aging protocols. BCG-naïve NMIBC filing on track, $381M cash runway secured. Clinical longevity adjacency is under-appreciated; positioning here captures the sector rotation before the re-rate.

$KRKNF — The Subsea Technology Consolidation Play Deeply Undervalued by the Market After a little review of primary filings, defence contract announcements, financing details, and competitive dynamics in the underwater domain, Kraken Robotics (OTCQB: $KRKNF / TSX-V: PNG) emerges as a high-conviction consolidator in mission-critical subsea intelligence and maritime security. The shares currently trade near $6.01, down ~26% from the 52-week high of $8.13. This pullback coincides with a transformative $615 million acquisition of Covelya Group (parent of Sonardyne, EIVA, Voyis, and others), creating a scaled global platform with complementary acoustic positioning, navigation, imaging, survey software, and power solutions. Key developments from aurelix analysis: • Defence Order Acceleration: Mid-March saw ~$24 million in new defence contracts across 10+ customers in five countries, including three new defence clients. These encompass SeaPower™ pressure-tolerant batteries, KATFISH towed synthetic aperture sonar (SAS), and standalone Kraken SAS systems — with incremental deployments for the Polish Navy’s minehunting program and multiple AUV platforms. All within secure Western/NATO-aligned supply chains, free of adversarial dependencies. • Strategic Scale-Up: The Covelya deal, expected to close in Q2 2026, is fully financed via a $402.5 million bought-deal subscription receipts offering (at C$8.50, including over-allotment) plus a $150 million credit facility. Management projects immediate accretion, with low-to-mid double-digit EPS impact by 2027, alongside expanded manufacturing footprint (>450,000 sq ft), ~1,200 employees, and significant cross-selling opportunities across defence and commercial subsea markets. • Tailwinds and Positioning: Ramp-up at the Nova Scotia battery facility complements European capacity, supporting surging demand in unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) and underwater domain awareness. This dual-use platform aligns precisely with sovereign priorities in maritime security and critical infrastructure protection. Analyst response has been supportive: Desjardins Securities resumed coverage with a Buy rating and raised its target to C$14.00 post-announcement. Broader consensus targets remain meaningfully higher than current levels. Risks are clear and should be stress-tested: near-term dilution from the raise, complex cross-border integration, execution as a growth-oriented acquirer, and typical cash burn. However, the velocity of defence wins, the clean financing structure, and the strategic alignment with Western priorities suggest the market has not yet fully priced in the emerging platform value and revenue diversification. Looks like , $KRKNF represents a compelling opportunity in secular subsea and maritime defence themes — where technological edge, secure supply chains, and proven execution command increasing premiums. The gap between operational momentum and prevailing valuation appears noteworthy. Possible thesis article on this select stock soon (available via Substack), the $TMC piece is going to be published today.

$OPTT (microcap) Q3 FY2026 revenue of $0.5M (ended Jan 31, 2026) was noise, impacted by federal shutdown timing. Signal: record $19.9M backlog (+165% YoY) and $163.9M pipeline (+84% YoY), led by the $6.5M DHS contract for four MERROWS-equipped PowerBuoys. First unit shipped March 24; Nordic fully-integrated WAM-V order secured March 27. At ~$0.37 (up 4.85% on April 2), markets price dilution risk while discounting recurring high-margin maritime domain awareness revenue. Key development: OPTT delivers persistent ocean infrastructure where satellites fall short. Wave + solar hybrids enable indefinite endurance. Anduril integration embeds it in layered defense sensing off San Diego. Rapid shipment and deployment vessel progress sharply reduce execution slippage concerns. Our scenario trees assign high odds to follow-on DHS awards by FY2027. The April 1 $10M senior convertible notes (4.5% coupon, convertible at $0.40) extend runway for the shift to platform recurring revenue. At ~0.4x visible backlog, forward multiples appear compelling on conservative conversion. Most coverage fixates on the miss. We map unit economics, integration timelines, and scenario-weighted IRRs versus defense comps. The edge compounds in persistent maritime infrastructure. Full thesis in the works. Happy Easter Sunday!

$TMC — The Deep-Sea Play Nobody’s Pricing In The U.S. just rewrote its critical minerals playbook and one company is at the center of it. $TMC the metals company is sitting at $4.61 — down 59% from its 52-week high — while Goldman increased its stake 234% last quarter and UBS raised its position 870%. Here’s what’s unfolding: NOAA modernized the deep-sea mining code for the first time in decades. $TMC immediately filed the first-ever consolidated application in American history — covering 65,000 km² of the Clarion Clipperton Zone. That’s 619 million tonnes of polymetallic nodules rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese. NOAA confirmed substantial compliance within weeks. No Congo. No China. Just critical metals sitting on the Pacific Ocean floor under U.S. regulatory jurisdiction. Next week TMCR — their royalty spinoff — begins trading on Nasdaq via direct listing. No dilution. Meanwhile $TMC is in exclusive negotiations for a massive refining hub in Brownsville, TX and just partnered with Mariana Minerals, the team behind Tesla’s Texas lithium plant buildout. HC Wainwright has a Buy rating with an $11.75 target. Consensus sits at $9.88. The stock trades under $5. The risk is real — pre-revenue, burning cash, shelf registration on file. But the regulatory velocity and institutional accumulation at these levels tell a very different story than the price. I’m doing a full deep dive on the financials, permit timeline, and what commercial-scale seabed mining actually means for the critical minerals supply chain. That report drops on my Substack soon. Stay tuned.