1530 Research

@Psych_Bags Poor governance on behalf of mgmt that capex increased by 90%. For a CEO that loves to talk a big game, there is no way that this can be painted as a good thing. Dilution likely follows + r/s is a bad concoction for a pre commercial co.

$LIB.v selloff is curious. No position for me yet but I know the ceo board has schizo-level activity. Why was Jan's offering only $12M? No wonder the capex raise is met with poor sentiment. How could the cost profile change so much in just a few months?

@AktienAkademie @Miyaji786 @Gantosj $VLTLF $LIB.v Grants may come but I doubt they'll wait for it if their plan is to accelerate further developments and be ahead of the market. Two options: Dilution or high rate debt. Both are equally as bad.

@authvera @Miyaji786 @Gantosj They still can fund the 37m milli with cash on hand + warrants. DOE grant could also help out ?

$LIB.v $VLTLF's customer from North-Dakota Packet Digital awarded $27 million Phase III SBIR contract by the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division to scale domestic manufacturing of battery cells!!! They will use a domestic #LithiumCarbonate from ND extracted by $VLTLF packetdigital.com/packet-digital…

@StunningFeline @Miyaji786 @Gantosj Debt at a high rate is an instant liability for a company that is still pre-commercial and isn't necessarily better than dilution. $20m was the consensu for site 1 CAPEX. There'll be trust erosion as a result.

@authvera @Miyaji786 @Gantosj All they need for Debt is an offtake, extremely common to get financing for projects based on those. Many other options in this space to provide funds. Betting on dilution ‘certainty’ is high risk and says ‘I haven’t done my research on this company’

@soron47 @Premski_SGP @SJ3764319892020 1.5kta in 2027 amounts to how much in FCF and FCF per share? Perhaps $17m and $0.02 respectively. So a pre-commercial company still needing to prove out their tech at a commercial scale is trading at 30x 2027 imaginary FCF.

@soron47 @Premski_SGP @SJ3764319892020 $VLTLF $LIB.v If they dilute next month due to the increased CAPEX, then it could well trend towards $0.40.. It's been overextended for a while so many are still up 100%+. All DCF models I've seen show a 2027 fair price still below current price.

$LIB has announced that their CAPEX needs go up from 22 to 37mln.Will try to get more info on the details.I kind of expected that not everything will be rosy as this kind of business was never setup before so we are blueprinting it as we go.Expect a rollercoaster tomorrow.

@StunningFeline @Miyaji786 @Gantosj Grants may or may not come - but they will certainly not wait for it if their cash balance is nearing 0. Debt is also unlikely as they are yet to prove out their commercial operations.

@authvera @Miyaji786 @Gantosj ‘Dilution is a certainty’ is a huge leap. They have lots of ways to finance project that don’t require Dilution.

@AktienAkademie @Miyaji786 @Gantosj Sorry. CAPEX*

@authvera @Miyaji786 @Gantosj Opex are not higher

@Gantosj Reverse splits have typically been value destructive. It is not a good sign that this will occur.

$LIB.v $VLTLF still has plenty of cards left to play, & its profile in the US is only just beginning to rise following the redomicile & moving to #Texas IMO, Reverse splits done for positive, strategic reasons; like meeting Nasdaq listing requirements; don’t hurt valuation & I have several examples like $BLU or $ADUR that spiked up post the R/S & uplisting news! It’s the defensive, last‑minute reverse splits aimed at avoiding delisting that typically create negative sentiment.

@Miyaji786 @Gantosj $VLTLF $LIB.v Dilution is a certainty given higher OPEX and current cash burn. IIRC, Nasdaq requires >$2 share price for an uplisting so r/s will happen.

@Gantosj Thanks Joe. But is there a chance of a reverse split pre or post Nasdaq listing and do you forsee further dilution to raise more capital?

@soron47 @Premski_SGP @SJ3764319892020 What price are you looking to buy in?

@Premski_SGP @SJ3764319892020 $LIB.V there you have it :) almost, This is not a good looking tape, climax volume could be next.