Avenor

I woke up to see Russia x Ukraine ceasefire markets resolved to Yes. Something I didn't really expect, even though I held a small amount of Yes shares I bought weeks ago for an entirely different reason. Precedents, spirit of the market, and the rules themselves were clear that short-term truces / humanitarian pauses wouldn't count. The market was specifically created to forecast a ceasefire related to a negotiated end of the war. It could have been a 30 day ceasefire, during which negotiations for peace are taking place. It could have been an indefinite ceasefire, aka a peace deal. The key here is the intent to end the war. The 3 day ceasefire announced hours ago didn't meet any of the criteria for a Yes resolution. There is no intent to end the war during the ceasefire time. There are no final negotiations taking place. In fact, as far as we know, there is no meeting taking place between Ukraine / US and Russia. Additionally, for reasons that for now are beyond me, the markets were effectively halted with no prior information, before a clarification had been issued. Many traders and market makers were trapped holding shares they didn't intend to hold until the resolution. Too much has happened now to find a perfect solution. But at the very least, we need a serious explanation from the Polymarket team. This is the first time the market has been resolved against precedent, making trading on the platform suddenly exponentially more risky. Refunds for No holders are also entirely justified. And ultimately, after years of complaints, it's time to fix the rules and resolutions system. We've lived through many absurd decisions and resolutions, but one thing was always certain - the markets cannot resolve against precedent. Now, with this axiom no longer holding, there is really no way to understand how the market will resolve going forward. This was one of the biggest markets on the platform, and the most consequential one. It was the basis for all other ceasefire markets. It was a forecast on the arguably the most important global event currently unfolding. If not properly addressed, the consequences for Polymarket and the wider prediction markets community and industry could be tragic.