
The Orca Fin
2.2K posts

The Orca Fin
@axbkol
Three decades of experience in technology, insurance, and financial markets.




@MichaelPBento This markets biggest declines will come AFTER the fucking straight is open.. I’m waiting for that day to short again


Most of Asia closed in the red today, except India. India opened the day 2+% down and recovered the losses during regular trading hours. Are investors starting to differentiate the impact of the current geopolitical issues on countries and changing country weightages?

The North American Electric Reliability Corp. tells FERC that data centers are amplifying grid instability. It plans to issue a Level 3 alert🚨, which is the most critical level, identifying immediate actions that must be taken by entities to ensure grid security & reliability.

In a new piece, I emphasize how the ability to build new upstream metallurgical and chemical plants is crucial to industrial competitiveness and the downstream ability to mass produce drones, batteries, or electric cars. In other words, what if it’s all the aluminum tech stack?

Peter Thiel: “AI chips will get commoditized.” Yes, the value in AI has largely accrued to the semiconductor level so far amd concentrated largely in $NVDA. But this is bound to change. In chips, you can stay as a monopoly only if you have an exclusive partnership with the monopoly in a downstream market. This is how $INTC dominated CPUs for decades, by partnering up with $MSFT. We can’t see such a partnership in AI, industry dynamics don’t allow it: - Downstream market is fragmented. - Price/performance drives decisions. As a result, the more AI workloads shift to inference, the more fragmented the AI accelerator market will become as inference-specific chips or custom chips of hyperscalers will be used more. Yes, it looks like most of the value has accrued to $NVDA right now but it’s almost certainly not sustainable. This is why I don’t own it despite seemingly attractive valuation. Its base is already too high and it’ll certainly struggle to maintain it let alone grow.

Half of US data centers planned for 2026 are expected to be delayed or canceled. One big reason is shortage of electrical equipment, such as transformers, switchgear and batteries. US doesn't have manufacturing capacity, forcing it to rely on imports. 🎁🔗 bloomberg.com/news/features/…





Heads-up: Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it’s a reverse indicator. Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long. See something tomorrow? You know the drill.




The Internet was a mistake







