The Orca Fin

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The Orca Fin

The Orca Fin

@axbkol

Three decades of experience in technology, insurance, and financial markets.

Katılım Nisan 2025
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The Orca Fin
The Orca Fin@axbkol·
The current geopolitical events have led to a sell-off across the board globally. This is throwing up interesting opportunities. Specifically in the EM space, I found some gems in India. While India's currency is getting wrecked and there have been some minor energy-related disruptions, things are stable and normal. There has been no widespread fuel rationing, and the government has not raised prices. Given that, let me highlight the companies I found interesting. Investors interested in EM would want to take a deeper look. 1. NSE: CDSL - Central Depository Services Limited is a Market Infrastructure Institution (MII), part of the capital market structure, providing services to all market participants - exchanges, clearing corporations, depository participants (DPs), issuers, and investors. It is a facilitator for holding securities in the dematerialised form and an enabler for securities transactions. CDSL is the only such institution listed in Asia and has 80% of the market share in India. The theme here is the ever-increasing participation of the public in financial markets and the continued rapid growth. In 2015, there were only 17.9 million investors; that number has grown sevenfold over 11 years. Only 17% of Indian households now invest in the stock market, and the number of active investors, currently 45 million, is also growing. Every time there is a buy or a sell in an exchange, CDSL is likely to be involved 80% of the time or more. 2. NSE: ATHERENERG - Ather Energy Ltd is an Indian electric two-wheeler (E2W) company engaged in the design, development, and in-house assembly of electric scooters, battery packs, charging infrastructure, and supporting software systems. Ather holds 19% of the nascent and growing E2W market. Its feature-rich, connected, high-quality scooters and excellent after-sales service have helped it grow its market share in the last year. The company has shunned the low end of the market and is focusing on the high end. While the entrenched legacy players are also competing, Ather is outdoing them with its world-class engineering and software-driven vehicles. During the quarter ended December 31, 2025, sales at Ather jumped 50% to a record 67,851 units, helping boost quarterly revenue by 50.2%. 3. Zelio E-Mobility Ltd (BSE - SME: 544563) - Zelio E-Mobility is primarily engaged in the business of manufacturing, assembling and supplying electric vehicles, offering a range of electric two-wheelers (E-2Ws) and three-wheelers (3Ws). While Ather focuses on the high-end of the market, Zelio has chosen not to compete with the majors. It focuses on vehicles with a maximum speed of 25 km/h, which require no driver's license and targets the tier 2 and tier 3 cities, which are the majority of the population of India, with lower, more affordable price points. The company is profitable, a rarity in this space. However, this is a microcap and may not be suitable for retail investors. The founder's background is interesting. He used to be a dealer for E2Ws 5 years ago and found major issues in the then-nascent E2W market. Vehicles were imported from China, the quality was bad, and the after-sales service was poor to nonexistent. The dealers had to deal with problems, and as one would expect, bore the brunt of customers' ire. Before he started Zelio, he went to China to learn about the manufacturing process and the requirements for after-sales service. He then decided to build in India, for India, with a clear focus on after-sales service. In 10 years, I expect this company to be 20x larger than it is today. 4. NSE: STYLEBAAZA - Style Baazar is a high-growth, value fashion and lifestyle retailer in India, with a dominant presence in Eastern India. It focuses on offering trendy and affordable apparel, general merchandise, and home goods, targeting the aspirational middle class in Tier 2, 3, and 4 cities. As of early 2026, the company operates over 250 stores. It follows a cluster-based strategy, rapidly expanding to bring fashion to underserved regions. The retailer caters to value-conscious consumers looking for fashionable apparel for men, women, and children at accessible prices. The company has shown robust growth, with a reported revenue CAGR of 35% over the last three years. The theme is again the growth of the middle class and growing wealth in smaller cities and underserved markets. It still has a major runway as it has not yet entered the rest of India apart from Eastern India. 5. NSE: SHADOWFAX - Shadowfax Technologies Ltd is a leading Indian third-party logistics (3PL) company specializing in last-mile delivery, express parcels, reverse logistics, and quick commerce for e-commerce and D2C brands. Key Aspects of Shadowfax's Business: Logistics Services: They offer express, reverse, and hyperlocal deliveries (quick commerce), along with handling critical, high-value goods. Scale and Reach: They have a presence in over 2,500 cities, utilizing more than 3,000 trucks daily to support 1 billion+ parcel deliveries. Technology-Driven: Shadowfax uses AI for route optimization, real-time tracking, and fraud detection. Franchise and Partnerships: They offer opportunities for franchise partners to operate last-mile delivery centers and support local logistics. Target Market: Primarily supports E-commerce, D2C brands, and retail companies requiring fast, reliable, and cost-effective last-mile solutions. Customer concentration is a key risk with ShadowFax; however, customer concentration is coming down with each quarter. I leave you to perform the valuations and due diligence before investing in these companies. Disclosure: Related parties or I own shares in the companies discussed above.
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The Orca Fin
The Orca Fin@axbkol·
@DarrenPlymouth SpaceX IPO. Best for Elon to keep away from these topics. Why get into any controversy at this time and potentially hurt the IPO. As a corporate leader, it is best to remain away from social media. That is why lots of them are rarely on social media. Most don't have accounts.
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Darren of Plymouth
Darren of Plymouth@DarrenPlymouth·
Two things Elon Musk is not talking about. Artemis 2 and the Iran War. Just an observation, probably nothing.
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The Orca Fin
The Orca Fin@axbkol·
@MichaelPBento Dated Brent is at 141. WTI quote being shown on fnacial media sites like CNBC are for May contracts and the Brent you are seeing are for June contracts. So, spot prices are already close to your 150 mark.
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Michael Bento
Michael Bento@MichaelPBento·
I think we will see the biggest declines before that, once the physical oil shortages start to bite in Asia and Europe that's going to send Brent to $150 in very short order which will spook stocks.
Casey K 🇺🇸@KlepperCasey

@MichaelPBento This markets biggest declines will come AFTER the fucking straight is open.. I’m waiting for that day to short again

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The Orca Fin
The Orca Fin@axbkol·
Pam Bondi is getting fired because DOW is not at 50K. Remember the Pam Bondi Top?
The Orca Fin tweet media
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The Orca Fin
The Orca Fin@axbkol·
@financialjuice The Iran+Oman proposed protocol for the Strait of Hormuz will only go into effect after the war is over. For now, status quo.
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FinancialJuice
FinancialJuice@financialjuice·
⚠ BREAKING: Iran: Drafting protocol with Oman for Hormuz Strait traffic.
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The Orca Fin
The Orca Fin@axbkol·
@FirstSquawk Increasing weightage of China makes sense; however, moving to Korea? Given the current circumstances? Korea is getting wrecked due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz; India is not impacted as much as its ships are passing through. Also, this 👇x.com/axbkol/status/…
The Orca Fin@axbkol

Most of Asia closed in the red today, except India. India opened the day 2+% down and recovered the losses during regular trading hours. Are investors starting to differentiate the impact of the current geopolitical issues on countries and changing country weightages?

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First Squawk
First Squawk@FirstSquawk·
NOMURA LOWERS INDIAN STOCKS TO NEUTRAL RATING, RECOMMENDS INVESTORS MOVE TO KOREA AND CHINA INSTEAD.
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The Orca Fin
The Orca Fin@axbkol·
Most of Asia closed in the red today, except India. India opened the day 2+% down and recovered the losses during regular trading hours. Are investors starting to differentiate the impact of the current geopolitical issues on countries and changing country weightages?
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The Orca Fin
The Orca Fin@axbkol·
Finally, people are waking up to the reality that data centers are amplifying grid instability. One thing I have learned in my short time on social media, it is best to pass the message and remain quiet after that. People will get it when such alerts are issued.
Ben Inskeep@Ben_Inskeep

The North American Electric Reliability Corp. tells FERC that data centers are amplifying grid instability. It plans to issue a Level 3 alert🚨, which is the most critical level, identifying immediate actions that must be taken by entities to ensure grid security & reliability.

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The Orca Fin
The Orca Fin@axbkol·
This is a great article from Bloomberg. There are limits to how soon the electricity grid capacity can be expanded, and the shortage of electrical equipment is also a bottleneck in data center buildout. The key will be to figure out how much will be delayed and how much will be cancelled. I have spoken about this and other bottlenecks, like water, etc., also. All of this build-out needs base metals, too, and there is a shortage of supply in those areas, too. Will it impact the shovel makers like Nvidia et al., in the short term, yes, but the buildout will continue, albeit in a delayed and measured fashion.
Akshat Rathi@AkshatRathi

Half of US data centers planned for 2026 are expected to be delayed or canceled. One big reason is shortage of electrical equipment, such as transformers, switchgear and batteries. US doesn't have manufacturing capacity, forcing it to rely on imports. 🎁🔗 bloomberg.com/news/features/…

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The Orca Fin
The Orca Fin@axbkol·
@TheEconomist The headline is a direct copy of quote from Napoleon. The Economist should have highlighted that. Also, it is a quote made by Sun Tzu in the book: The Art of War. Quite apt though to use a Sun Tzu quote in this context.
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The Economist
The Economist@TheEconomist·
We spoke to diplomats, advisers, scholars, experts and current and former officials in China. Almost all of them see the war in Iran as a grave American error. Register for free to read why: econ.st/416vZDK
The Economist tweet media
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First Squawk
First Squawk@FirstSquawk·
TRADERS REMOVE EXPECTATIONS FOR A FED INTEREST RATE INCREASE AND NOW ANTICIPATE A CUT THIS YEAR.
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The Orca Fin
The Orca Fin@axbkol·
@TylerHardt @MacroEdgeRes @DonMiami3 India has imposed no fuel restrictions, and there are no price hikes. India has 74 days of reserves and has secured 60 million barrels of Russian oil for April, and Indian flagged ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz. India has had no problems securing oil supplies.
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Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here@TylerHardt·
@MacroEdgeRes @DonMiami3 By my count that is 11 countries and counting that have put in place some type of emergency fuel restriction. - Philippines - Sri Lanka - Bangladesh - Pakistan - Sri Lanka - India - Thailand - Vietnam - Cambodia - Egypt - Slovenia Combined population is 2.4 billion. #OOTT $OIL
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MacroEdge
MacroEdge@MacroEdgeRes·
Egypt imposes immediate emergency measures to save fuel #MacroEdge
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The Orca Fin
The Orca Fin@axbkol·
As part of an article I wrote on March 18, I added a note on META. META is down 12% since then. More to go. Here is what I wrote: "META is at it again with another restructuring. I spent quite a bit of ink on the last one over 2024 and 2025 to the point of calling Mark Zuckerberg “Chainsaw Mark” Zuckerberg after the infamous “Chainsaw Al” Dunlap. While I rode the rally, I subsequently ticked the intermediate top as the benefits of the restructuring were baked in. Let’s see what happens this time. Continuously restructuring and dumping the costs below the line to boost the income statement goes as far as it can because soon enough, the chickens will come home to roost."
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The Orca Fin
The Orca Fin@axbkol·
March 6, 2009: Great time to buy stocks. - Obama. -> GFC bottom. April 9, 2025: Stocks are cheap. - Trump. -> Market Bottoms. Today: I thought stocks would have fallen more. - Trump. That is all one needs to know.
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Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭
Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭@ThierryBorgeat·
Quiz Question - You run a $100 billion company - You generate over $10 billion in free cash flow per year - You trade at a P/E ratio of 13 and a 10% FCF yield - Business is booming What do you do with all that cash?
Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 tweet media
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The Orca Fin
The Orca Fin@axbkol·
FedEx is set to launch a monthly Dun & Bradstreet and FedEx Dataworks Retail Momentum Index this Spring to help detect inflection points before they appear in traditional economic reports. The index will combine vast amounts of shipping intelligence and business data insights to provide a near-real-time aggregated view of US retail supply and demand. This is cool. It will be quite interesting and fun to watch experts on social media pontificate every month on another macro report.
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