Arjun Badola

@investor_vineet @Sriniva00128621 @gurjota

@Sriniva00128621 @gurjota Aapkey portfolio ka kitna hai?

You think you're a smart stock picker investing in BSE, MCX and all such high flying names. Index is as smart as you if not smarter. I'm also invested in MCX through the same momentum ETFs. Index is like a machine which will keep doing this for years/decades, can you keep up?

Microfinance Is Healing : Early Signs of a New Upcycle soic.substack.com/p/microfinance…

P/B ratio has historically been a more reliable and stable valuation metric for predicting future returns compared to alternatives such as P/E or EV/EBITDA. I had demonstrated this through correlation analysis in an earlier investor memo. The chart below tracks the P/B ratio (blue line) of the Nifty Smallcap 100 Index against the 25th percentile of its trailing 5-year P/B range (orange line). In simple terms, when the blue line falls below the orange line, the current valuation is in the lowest quartile of the past five years. Since P/B is broadly proportional to ROE, the structural improvement in index ROE—from ~8–12% in the previous decade to ~15% currently—has led to a gradual upward shift in the orange line over time. Notably, for the first time since the COVID crash, the current P/B has moved below this 25th percentile threshold. Historically, similar instances—during the 2011–2013 downturn, Q1 2016 correction, and the COVID crash—have been followed by strong returns over the subsequent 1–3 years. This does not imply that markets have bottomed, nor does it guarantee short-term gains. In an event-driven environment, especially with geopolitical risks such as an escalation in war, markets could decline further by 10–20%. However, what can be said with a reasonably high degree of confidence is that forward-looking returns over a 1–3 year horizon from such valuation levels have historically been better than average.

Anyone tracking Dodla Dairy? Thoughts at 23 times multiple?

@apoorvsinghasr @NeelChhabra Good points raised - food for thought. Thanks for sharing.

@NeelChhabra Please address these blind spots. Thanks @tradingwithmind/note/c-222978474?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=1m0gg" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@tradingwithmi…

@Ankush__Agrawal Hi Ankush, are you still tracking the company? any thoughts?

Watchlist #7- Parag Milk Foods With Watchlist we pen down our broader thoughts on an idea that looks interesting and is worth keeping in one’s watchlist. This week’s idea is Parag Milk Foods- surgecapital.in/post/watchlist…

@9onecapital Hi Gaurav, are you still tracking Parag?

Buying companies at a valuations which is in your favor is the only sustainable way in investing. Sharing my thesis on Parag Milk Foods from Oct 2022 Idea is obviously not to brag but to show the framework used to invest in Parag.

@StocksAndStoics Hey - are you still tracking this?

Had about a 4–5% allocation to Parag in the portfolio. Not looking to add at current levels. Trimmed some holdings, so the position still stands around 4% even after the sharp run-up. x.com/StocksAndStoic…

Parag Milk Foods closed at a new all-time high today & more than doubled since issuing warrants to promoters & one of company's key employee seven months back. Preferential allotment of warrants to key employees deserve closer attention than to promoters or well-known investors.

@josh39646676 the-ken.com/story/bain-cap…

@badola_arjun Where can I get the whole note?

Manappuram.

Effect of new regulation.

Microfinance Sector Back on Track with Higher-value Loans economictimes.indiatimes.com/et-front/micro…

The working capital heavy sword will always be hanging.

Investor vs business mindset. Source: Q3FY26 - Parag Milk

My 2 cents on Arman -I would say that given the sector NPA% is coming down and so is Armans NPA coming down ,even if the price reaches median price to book value (3.9) from present 1.8 then Arman share price should more than double in less than 3 years time

Even after a 50% drop, Parag Milk shows a bear flag. Money is made when both the business and the price aligns.

Rahul Kumar, COO, Parag Milk Foods Ltd. youtu.be/zfu96DmhOnY?si… via @YouTube

Heritage Foods - Press release.

Polymer Price Surge Triggers Shutdowns in Plastic Industry Polymer prices have surged up to ~70% due to supply disruptions from West Asia conflict Sharp rise in key inputs like HDPE, LDPE, LLDPE, PVC, and PP Example: HDPE prices jumped from ~₹91,000 to ~₹1.47 lakh/tonne (~60%+) Many plastic-processing units are unable to pass on higher costs due to fixed contracts Result: widespread shutdowns, especially in Odisha where 50–75% units have halted production Industry faces raw material shortages and pricing uncertainty Sector has ~50,000 enterprises, with ~85% MSMEs, making it highly vulnerable Provides employment to ~5 million people, raising concerns over job impact Smaller players are the most affected due to weak pricing power Highlights dependence on imported petrochemical supply chains

Change of character observed in Apollo Pipes. Every pullback towards MA/support area should attract buyers now. @badola_arjun #ApolloPipes