Badplus

WSJ reports Saudi Arabia sees oil prices potentially spiking to $180 if the energy shock persists beyond April.

This is fake: flags on the left & right are folded exactly the same way. It's the same flag duplicated. Contrast between lectern & flags shows they are entirely separate elements, not in the same room. The left lapel on the jacket has disappeared again.

The metric tons of coal I’m sifting through regarding takes on Iran and USA’s future is intolerable. I’m going to have to make more liberal use of the block button

عاجل | المجلس الأوروبي: ندين هجمات #حزب_الله على إسرائيل وندعوه لوقفها فورا

I talked to two Israeli sources on why Iranian launches continue to increase, despite US-Israeli claims that they have destroyed almost all of the launchers. Here is what they said: 1) The 90–95% drop in volume claimed by CENTCOM earlier in the month was probably a temporary lull as Iran repositioned its remaining launchers into hardened sites. Independent satellite analysis suggests that a significant portion of the "80% destruction" claimed by the IDF actually hit high-fidelity decoys. 2) Despite fewer launchers, the lethality per strike has increased. Iran's shift to cluster warheads has allowed a single missile to impact multiple locations simultaneously, compensating for the lower volume of launches 3) Iran has successfully set up mobile, underground units able to fire at steady rates. Iran used that quiet period to move their remaining ~100-120 heavy launchers into "Super-Hardened" facilities 4) Iran is utilizing its Zolfaqar and Dezful road-mobile launchers. These units move from hardened tunnels to pre-surveyed launch spots, fire, and return underground in under 10 minutes, often before coalition drones can re-task for a strike. 5) Because these launching units are decentralized, it is very hard for US and Israeli intelligence to get info on them. Israel and the United States do not have an answer to this problem. That is why they are trying escalation on energy sources instead. But that is backfiring.

NEW - The Boxer Amphibious Readiness Group (ARG) and its embarked 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit (11th MEU) have deployed early from the U.S. West Coast and are expected to sail directly to the Middle East via the Indo-Pacific region — Newsmax

I still think Trump will TACO—because he *has* to TACO. Oil loss it too big, too politically untenable. While the damage is already extensive and recovery will already be a months-long ordeal, it can get so, so much worse and this is fundamentally a crisis of lost time. People will push back and say it isn't up to Trump anymore. But while there are two other major parties in this war, Trump remains the 1) most important, and 2) most movable by external pressures (like, say, oil prices), so it's gotta be him.

I don't think people realize how bad a crude export ban would be for US shale producers. Here's an illustrative example. Refinery throughput would remain depressed due to crude quality mismatch. All of the crude imports will come from Canada + some from Venezuela. US shale is now landlocked, so US commercial crude storage will build. US commercial crude storage will build so fast that it will force producers to shut-in production. This is NOT a scenario you want. If US commercial crude storage builds too fast, it will jam up Canadian crude exports. WCS-WTI differentials will widen, Canadian crude inventories will fill up. How is this good for anyone? Think!

BREAKING | Preliminary reports of a second F-35 aircraft being hit in Iran's Bandar Abbas, and landing at Al-Dhafra base in the UAE. Details to follow.

Joe Kent (former Director of the National Counterterrorism Center) strongly implies that Israel killed Charlie Kirk.

Prediction: We get crushed in 2026 and 2028. America First replaces MAGA in 2032. Stay the course.

Antisemites are turning me into a Zionist. Their low IQ energy is too much for anyone intelligent to handle.