Den

OpenAI missed its revenue targets because the plebes didn't consume enough tokens to "escape the permanent underclass" 🤭

@dampedspring straddle was the right choice

That happened fast. Now $80 ITM 504/584-1=-13.7% from cost The catalyst I predicted has yet to happen either.

@agnostoxxx They compressed vix so next week straddles were cheap into the close

- “They” ramp the Market into Friday’s option expiry - “They” cash out their calls - “They” switch to puts - Reality kicks in over the weekend - “They” cash out their puts at Globex open - Monkeys get destroyed Rinse and repeat. Hope it helps 🌳

I really don't know which Iran propaganda song is the best as of now but this one has got to be at least top 2. What a banger.

Iran will charge $2m toll per ship into the Aya-toll and then the U.S. will charge $2m toll per ship out of the Aya-toll, payable in Trumpcoin. I think it’s a fair deal 🤭

Four ships were allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz today, the fewest so far in April, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence

@agnostoxxx It’s funny they made this proposal 30 min till market close. It’s well beyond midnight in Pakistan.

Monkeys don't understand that time is not on our side🥹

@Osinttechnical not many people understand that once US start bombing other infrastructure. Iran can do the same with oil terminals for all neighbors. In this case it would not matter if SoH is open or not.

Footage of the Ukrainian drone raid that hit Russia’s oil export terminal at the port of Novorossiysk tonight.

@citrini If this thing escalates, they will target terminals. You can have it open as wide as you want, without the ability to load the oil—it’s useless.

Couple higher conviction views of informed parties in the Gulf: 1) The US will launch a ground operation within the next week or so, as evidenced by much higher troop numbers than reported in the UAE with numbers recently accelerating. 2) Even considering the above, traffic through the Strait will continue to rise. Gradually and dependent on developments, but it will not go back to being fully closed as it was before the Larak channel opened up. Countries will continue making deals. 3) Hormuz fried chicken is 5/5 stars.

@sentdefender It's a fake news! The president said "we won" like 8 time already.

According to CNN, citing sources with knowledge on the matter, Iran is increasing efforts to militarily reinforce the economically and strategically important Kharg Island. Sources tell CNN that Iran has reinforced the island with larger troop formations, antipersonnel mines, man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), and other defensive measures, as CNN reports that individuals in U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s circle have highlighted these measures as potential reasons why a ground operation to take the island may be costly.

@TRobinsonNewEra People generally get the government they deserve, so enjoy 😉!

"New normal" day in my home town of Luton.

@RnaudBertrand It's wishful thinking on the part of Europe. If something like that could even remotely have happened, what would prevent the US from closing the Strait of Hormuz themselves?

You've got to hand it to Iran: that's masterful asymmetric warfare. If they pull this off and suddenly oil transiting through Hormuz is traded in Yuan, we're talking potentially close to $1 trillion less in annual demand for dollars (20% of the world's oil + LNG). It'd be insanely impressive to achieve this simply by controlling a 30-mile strait with a few missiles and drones. And it'd have compounding effects: $1 trillion less in demand for dollars means less foreign buying of US Treasuries, higher borrowing costs in the U.S., more inflation, etc. Heck even if this doesn't materialize, the mere fact they're suggesting it and that it's taken seriously by mainstream media like CNN is impactful in and of itself: at the end of the day dollar supremacy is also very much based on inertia. But inertia works both ways: once enough people start questioning it, the questioning itself becomes self-reinforcing. Imagine you're a central banker and you're seeing this: you're undoubtedly telling yourself "mmm, maybe it's time to hold a bit more yuan, just in case." It's also pretty ironic: the U.S. has weaponized the dollar against others countless times - including, of course, against Iran - but I can't think of a precedent of a country actively at war with the U.S. using the dollar's dominance as a weapon against them. Literally flipping the playbook, which sets an interesting precedent. All in all, in this war you really have the feeling to witness Sun Tzu's maxim about "knowing the enemy and knowing yourself" in real time: Trump obviously completely failed to understand what he was getting into. Iran, on the other hand, clearly studied its enemy's vulnerabilities, be it hitting Gulf countries until they question whether being a U.S. ally protects or endangers them, choking oil supply to inflict economic pain the US can't bomb its way out of, or now attacking the dollar itself. The U.S. only has bombs to reply, but hard to see how they could bomb their way out of problems that were entirely predictable consequences of their bombing in the first place, if anyone had spent five minutes thinking about what Iran might do in response.

@Osinttechnical It's not possible to have two fires so far apart from a "drone intercept" unless the facility intercepted the drone.

Plumes of black smoke can been seen rising from the UAE’s port of Fujairah, the country’s only oil export outside the Strait of Hormuz. The local government confirms that Iranian drones targeted the area, says that damage was from falling debris.

@sentdefender They didn't say whether it was shot down or not, but that it was not shot down by Iran.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has publicly denied claims made by IRGC Gen. Ali Fadavi, Former Deputy Commander-in-Chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), alleging that an American F-15 had been shot down to the south of Tehran.

@RapidResponse47 @SecWar So SPX needs to drop another few hundred points before the war stops? Got it.

.@SecWar: "Today will be yet again our most intense day of strikes inside Iran — the most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes... On the other hand, the last 24 hours have seen Iran fire the lowest number of missiles."

@conksresearch Can FED plumbing help oil plumbing?

torn between finishing a 30-page Warsh report and dabbling in some "Geoplumbing Notes" gonna have to reluctantly monitor the situation

@sentdefender Iran knows that the only way to win is to get the SPX to drop below 5k.

According to a report from Reuters, cracks are beginning to show with between principal decision-makers in Iran on how to move forward from a strategic standpoint. Firstly, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian‘s letter apologizing to Gulf states for strikes within their countries received very public backlash from other, more hardline decision-makers, in Iran. More notably, citing senior officials in Iran speaking on the condition of anonymity, the cracks go as far up as the current ruling interim council of three, that Pezeshkian finds himself party to, as Pezeshkian was openly criticized by at least one other member of the interim council for promising to reduce strikes on neighboring Gulf nations. This, combined with the rushed attempts to appoint Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, to his father’s role indicate growing cracks between hardliners and moderates in Iran’s ruling class, amidst rising doubt that the Ayatollah’s son can fill the role and fill these cracks as his father did.

@OpenAI It's like day and night compare to 5.2

GPT-5.4 Thinking and GPT-5.4 Pro are rolling out now in ChatGPT. GPT-5.4 is also now available in the API and Codex. GPT-5.4 brings our advances in reasoning, coding, and agentic workflows into one frontier model.

@davidhogg111 You cannot buy fully automatic weapons in the US unless you have a special license.

You guys wanna take a wild guess at where 90% of the guns used by the cartel come from? It’s America. Our weak gun laws are literally arming the cartels that perpetuate so much of the violence driving mass migration.

@MichaelAArouet Your scale is so minuscule it's not even statistically meaningful.

Can someone please explain why there are still people questioning man-made climate change? How much more evidence do they need?