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baoryo

baoryo

@baoryo

Anything AI, innovation and... politics 💁🏻‍♂️

Vancouver, British Columbia Katılım Eylül 2012
224 Takip Edilen65 Takipçiler
baoryo
baoryo@baoryo·
Not sure is even TACO able lol, he opened a can of worms. Iran is not only willing to have nuclear weapons, attack neighbours and hold world economy as hostage, they also can target EU. If US pulled out, Iran can keep taking ransom for strait control. So minimum must be the strait flow again for him to TACO, even then, it will be a Middle East arms race since I assume UAE doesn't want a random day, Iran holds the strait or bomb Dubai again. With the troops movement, don't think that is a sea trip for the marine lol, US wants the strait opens and hits Iran really hard before pull out so I fully expect the market tanks for at least another 2 weeks 💸
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JaguarAnalytics
JaguarAnalytics@JaguarAnalytics·
Mr. President. Please TACO 🌮 now!
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baoryo
baoryo@baoryo·
Imagine looking at this as EU and do nothing. >They have missiles which can reach Europe >They have planned to develop nuclear weapon despite being stop multiple times >They targeted neighbour countries on civilian targets to reach their goal >They are holding the strait as hostage, harming world economies If EU does nothing and when they are getting bullied by economic jihad in the future, they can look back at this moment and be like:
GIF
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Melissa Chen
Melissa Chen@MsMelChen·
> Iran just proved it has operational IRBMs with ~4,000–4,500 km range, far beyond its acknowledged official 2,000 km cap > First direct strike on US/UK assets outside the Middle East (Diego Garcia is in the Indian Ocean). > One missile failed, one intercepted by US Navy SM-3 > probably a retaliatory strike for Starmer allowing the Americans to use British bases for strikes to help reopen Strait of Hormuz > Iran now credibly threatens Central Europe too, not just Israel/Gulf
OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical

Iran fired a pair of intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia, a joint U.S.-UK base in the Indian Ocean. One missile failed in flight, and another was engaged by a US Navy destroyer using an SM-3 missile.

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baoryo
baoryo@baoryo·
Recently has a chance to watch this podcast of Danielle Smith from mid 2024. There are some great points, especially about the oil and gas industry, how the industry was being evilized and how it hurts Canadians, Europe and developing countries. youtube.com/watch?v=5NVMYs…
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baoryo
baoryo@baoryo·
@shuvmajumdar Since Carney spent so much time courting Europe, at least we need to get something out of it. Now EU would not prefer to buy oil and gas from Russia and Middle East, Canada became a stable provider for these needs. If only we have pipelines and facilities to support it...
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Shuv Majumdar
Shuv Majumdar@shuvmajumdar·
“Canada joined the statement shortly after it was published by the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan.” So, Prime Minister Carney opposed contributing to regional stability, until allies in NATO and Japan supported it. He casts himself as a ringleader for middle powers, instead, objectively, he’s flip flopping his way through a major crisis. Our allies acted, then Carney’s Liberals begged to be read in after the fact. It’s like he has no idea what he’s doing. Four positions in the first four days, and no idea if this position would hold for the next four days. Our allies act on their shared interests. So too should Canada. theglobeandmail.com/canada/article…
Shuv Majumdar tweet media
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baoryo
baoryo@baoryo·
This is why not having a balanced ideology rotation will hammer one country growth in the long term. The right with national pride, self determination and promised glory will attract high performance player better. US and Canada shares a border and there's a huge gap in ideology right now so within these few years, the high skill transfer rate is the highest. And to make matter worse, the left default to more taxation to resolve the bleeding economy will only make it spiral downward. And if we consider the compound long term effect, the gap eventually leading to the result of annexation is a good option since US and Canada is close in culture values. This projection result is way far down the road so we will have lot of time to think about the long term structure fix. But the most important question is, what is more important, identity or efficiency?
Kirk Lubimov@KirkLubimov

Which demographics of Canadians are leaving Canada? >67% of the are 20-44 year olds. >3x more likely to be in Sciences than avg population. >31.1% have a masters degree. >61.4% left to the US. In other words, it's Canada's youngest, most talented and educated population.

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baoryo
baoryo@baoryo·
US LNG stocks surged after this attack because it means more market share for US exports at a high price. This damages Middle East and oil dependent countries the most, honestly, they need to jump on the bandwagon to stop this terrorist behavior. EU also refused to help, they will soon find the issue on Russia new funding on Ukraine front.
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The Spectator Index
The Spectator Index@spectatorindex·
BREAKING: Iran says it has struck oil sites across the region that are tied to US interests
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baoryo
baoryo@baoryo·
It did contribute to the bearish trend last week. But based on market reaction today then sending marine over there and having reserve to buy time are correct course of action, market are expecting lower gas prices since they don't expect Iran can hold the strait hostage for long. Unless Iran has counter strategy then market will readjust again, But the odds is against them, as they don't have lot of weapons and is making enemies everywhere.
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Isaac Willum Degen
Isaac Willum Degen@Sinisterisaac31·
@baoryo What do you think the impact of this framing error will have on market sentiment?
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Aaron Rupar
Aaron Rupar@atrupar·
BESSENT: We gave a 30 day waiver for Russian oil that was already on the water, about 130 million barrels. That's a lot of oil. CNBC: It's about 1.5 days global supply, Mr Secretary. BESSENT: No no. That's bad framing.
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baoryo
baoryo@baoryo·
It is sad to see how far EU has fallen behind. If US and allies can't prove that they can handle Iran holds the strait as hostage now, this playbook will happen again. On top of that, some countries just straight up refuse to help. The irony is, EU needs energy much more than the US does since US the top oil exporter, so they are just mooching off US military to resolve their problem. The same goes to economy, as US fallen to debt issue, EU did not choose to stand behind, fixing the trade balance as they are used to mooching off US market. The inevitable decline projection of Europe also reflect on immigration and business regulation. Their leaders need to step up and support a swift end for this conflict, not doing nothing and wait for another wave of asylums incoming.
Eric Daugherty@EricLDaugh

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump warns NATO of a "VERY BAD FUTURE" if they abandon America's plans to open and secure the Strait of Hormuz — FT Trump could announce a coalition of countries escorting tankers this week. It's a fact: NATO is NOT NATO without America! Europe could reportedly assist because they have large numbers of minesweepers — that can counter Iran effectively NATO SecGen Mark Rutte recently NAILED IT: "If anyone thinks here that the European Union or Europe can defend itself without the US, KEEP ON DREAMING! YOU CAN'T! We can't!" "Europe — if you REALLY want to go it alone, and those of you who are planning for that, FORGET that you can ever get there with 5% [GDP for defense spending]. It will be 10%! You have to build up your own nuclear capability!" "That costs billions and billions of euros. You will lose them. In that scenario, you would lose the ultimate guarantor of our freedom, which is the U.S. nuclear umbrella. So, hey, good luck!"

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baoryo
baoryo@baoryo·
@rikas4sal Gotta give it to her, her hair is already LV themed😂
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baoryo
baoryo@baoryo·
This is a very interesting concept. Imagine we can upload our mind and running it in parallel simulations then based on results create subsequent simulations. A summary for the result will be the advice system for decision. It does sound far fetched but it is kinda like a chess grandmasters move planner.
Michael Andregg@michaelandregg

We've uploaded a fruit fly. We took the @FlyWireNews connectome of the fruit fly brain, applied a simple neuron model (@Philip_Shiu Nature 2024) and used it to control a MuJoCo physics-simulated body, closing the loop from neural activation to action. A few things I want to say about what this means and where we're going at @eonsys. 🧵

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baoryo
baoryo@baoryo·
As predicted, Iran will play the long game and use the humanitarian crisis as a shield. This would work well if US leader under Democrats but it is unlikely work this time. Ideally, US main target should be launchers, defense factories and choking out the income. Iran last protest was about economy so the situation would become from bad to worse. Furthermore, US can circle Iran resources around the capital, in order to pull political pressure on a deal or regime changes. Personally I wouldn't want to see this happens but since US is on a timeline, this card is on the table. Therefore, civilians, especially around Tehran should be on high alert on both sides movement. Truth is, this can get pretty ugly, US doesn't want to leave Iran with a worse regime but they are facing a religious faction so it increase the chance of prolong the conflict. Another thing is, if we look at most Middle East countries, a secular government is likely to be rejected so creating a new regime is a hard task within itself. The best result can be achieved is a friendlier supreme leader but, from where? As the majority of Assembly of Experts chose Khamenei son to be the leader, they chose to fight. The main weakness in the assembly system is the majority being appointed by the leader himself so their system lacks nuances and harmony. Therefore the assembly of experts should be the biggest US pressure point on long term Iran regime change. Still, it's too early to say if the US can do this but they will need a lot of pressure. A cavity needs to get worse to get better. Hopefully, this will somehow open up a brighter future for Iranians.
U.S. Central Command@CENTCOM

x.com/i/article/2030…

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baoryo retweetledi
Apple Lamps
Apple Lamps@lamps_apple·
President Nixon, who was also hounded and sabotaged by the left, understood Iran better than the entire Carter foreign policy team. He understood that the Shah was not facing some noble democratic opposition. He was facing a revolutionary coalition of communists, Marxists, Islamists, and anti-Western radicals who wanted to tear Iran apart. Nixon said the choice was never between the Shah and “somebody better,” but between the Shah and “somebody worse”... and history proved him exactly right. The Shah was far from the cartoon villain he was turned into by Western liberals. He was modernizing Iran. He pushed land reform, literacy, education, and women’s advancement. As Nixon put it, the Shah was trying to move Iran into the 20th century, while his enemies wanted to drag it back into the Dark Ages. That is exactly what happened. Then came Jimmy Carter. Under the banner of “human rights,” the Carter administration pressured the Shah to loosen control at the worst possible moment. Violent chaos agents were given more room to organize, radical clerics gained momentum, and America sent mixed signals instead of firm support. Nixon later said he would have been “steadfast throughout” and would have made it clear there was to be no contact with those trying to overthrow the Shah. That is the real scandal... the Shah was not simply overthrown by Khomeini. He was abandoned by Washington. Nixon described the betrayal clearly. One day the Shah would hear words of support from the United States. The next day, leaks and backchannel signals would suggest America was preparing for his removal and willing to work with the forces trying to destroy him. Nixon said that uncertainty emboldened the Shah’s enemies and demoralized his supporters. And what followed Carter’s failure was not freedom, democracy, or reform. What followed was the Islamic Republic... decades of repression, terrorism, hostage-taking, anti-American fanaticism, regional bloodshed, and civilizational collapse. Nixon warned that America had replaced a flawed ally with something “infinitely worse.” He was right. He also understood the larger lesson... when the United States abandons loyal allies under pressure from liberal elites and media moralizing, it does not create peace. It creates chaos. Nixon called what happened to the Shah “a great mistake” and warned that if America does not stand up for its friends, it will stop having friends. That is the lesson Americans should remember now. Iran is what happens when radicals are underestimated, when order is treated as oppression, when revolutionaries are rebranded as reformers, and when weak American leadership undermines an ally in the middle of an existential fight. The Shah was not the problem. Carter’s weakness was. Nixon saw it. Carter enabled it. Iran suffered for nearly half a century because of it.
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Napoleon Bonaparte Appreciator
Napoleon Bonaparte Appreciator@NapoleonBonabot·
>you don’t understand. Iran is just holding back
Napoleon Bonaparte Appreciator tweet media
Brotherhood@DiggingInTheDi1

@memeticsisyphus 1) Iran held back its Khorramshahr missiles until yesterday 2) They still haven't fired any Fattah missiles 3) They haven't sortied any of their 200+ planes 4) They haven't activated Ansarallah Geopolitical analysis isn't just vibes and energy

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baoryo
baoryo@baoryo·
It does feel like the improvement in data collection and data filtering in satellite/cameras intelligence played a big part. A few months back, Trump called out cocaine factories in Colombia, pretty sure they got the exact location lol. Also they pin pointed out the speed boat and current launcher targeting. For how they map out some of the high profile target layout, maybe insider plus advanced tracking devices? Regardless, extremely impressive works.
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Air Katakana
Air Katakana@airkatakana·
why is no one talking about *how* the usa and allies effortlessly captured the head of state of one country and killed another? these countries have militaries. they’re investing tons into making sure these things don’t happen what does the usa have now that made it so easy?
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baoryo
baoryo@baoryo·
Sitting duck is the perfect way to describe it. But now it is the hard part, this can be come wack a mole type of game, when Iran will try their best to outlast while dealing the maximum amount of damage. Their best weapon is 90 million population, and the longer it is, the humanitarian crisis applies to Middle East neighbours and EU countries will pressure the end of operation. This would be the worst situation that can happen. Iranians should chose themselves out of this situation before everything became unrecognizable, and hope all will go well with them.
Eric Daugherty@EricLDaugh

🚨 JUST IN: Gen. Dan Caine reveals that Iran's ballistic missile shots fired have PLUMMETED -86% since day one One-way attack drones are down -73%! 🔥 With the regime flailing, the US is SURGING air superiority "A -23% decrease in JUST the last 24 hours!" "We will now expand INLAND, striking progressively deeper into Iranian territory, creating additional freedom of maneuver for US forces." Victory is inevitable. Not if, WHEN.

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baoryo
baoryo@baoryo·
The main reason for China to stay away to hawkish move is their economy highly dependent on exports. And economy is one of the key ingredient for their population sticking together, once that is broke down, it is very damaging to their society. It's reasonable for them to stay away from the disruption. But this also mean another thing, this hurts their ambition to be a world leader since their lack of first mover ability and the capability of going out of their way to keep the world order. When you look at their potential allies being chipping away, then until they fixed their economy nature, it's pretty unlikely that their ambition came true.
The Wall Street Journal@WSJ

While the U.S. and Israel have pummeled Iran—China’s closest partner in the Middle East—Beijing has responded with little more than sharp denunciations on.wsj.com/40Lizwx

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baoryo
baoryo@baoryo·
@aleabitoreddit Historians will look back at the prolonged Ukraine war as the biggest Russia strategic mistake to let the US won this much influence over the globe.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
The US and Trump just pulled off the most 500 IQ play in modern history: > Disrupted Russian oil production inadvertently through Ukraine war > Regime changed Venezulea, one of the proxies of (China, Iran, Russia) > Toppled Iran Leadership, further isolating China/Russia. > Venezulea and Iran, both #1 and #3 country in the world with latent oil capacity > Now disrupted Iran and Venezulea from funneling China/Russia with access to cheap oil > Russia has harder time with War efforts in Ukraine with Ukraine hitting oil/energy infrastructure > China now has a huge chokepoint from US control over oil production and routing > Saudi and UAE, the other two suppliers to China/Russia are more US aligned + forces more dollar denomination And all of this without getting into direct conflict with China yet and minimal US casualties. Iran’s scenario still unfolding but toppling the leadership and command chain is a massive win. A lot of the narcotics and protestor narratives are probably a smokescreen: This was short term high-risk play from Trump to ensure long term American dominance. And all of this happened in two months.
Serenity tweet media
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baoryo
baoryo@baoryo·
From the outlook, it seems like it is inevitable. The most important element changed for Iran after all these years is Russia is not able to bring a counterweight to US anymore. With Iran returned strike on multiple Middle East countries, the isolation likely marking the end of current regime, but it will be a long ride. Wishing the best to the people of Iran.
baoryo@baoryo

Interesting decision here. Iran is in similar situation with Venezuela. Regime surrounded and unpopular with population, they also don't want a deal, they want to stall for time. The differences are, the capital is way harder to hit with its position and preparation on Venezuela situation. Factors in Iran also split and even a regime change will cause multiple years of conflict and guaranteed ground troops. We are looking for multiple years commitment. Then again, Trump knows he did hammer Iran on his first term and Iran were able to recovered under Biden and even pulled out assassination threat so this might be his last chance to overcome this long term issue since gathering this amount of naval is costly. If US does have a way out, they will 100% attack in this position but the stake here is even higher than Venezuela. It is an extremely dangerous operation and on the other hand, taking a deal with a partner you can't trust is the easy path and the region still remains destabilized in the long term. Considering Iran multiple failed deals under the same regime, their political unrest and potentially future military investment to counter attack threat, on top of that, a weakened Russia and passive China are unlikely to counterweight, a lot of things point to an US attack. Unfortunately we are at this point but regardless, wishing the best to the people of Iran.

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