Wei Bao
433 posts

Wei Bao
@baowei0964
财经观察 & 地缘分析 同时记录在魁北克的真实育儿与生存挑战; Documenting the real challenges of parenting and survival in Montréal
Québec, Canada Katılım Temmuz 2023
383 Takip Edilen108 Takipçiler

@aleabitoreddit It won't be long to hit 300M followers ,because Buffett has retired and the world needs a new stock god to help everyone become millionaire.
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Wow I’ve hit 300k followers just now!
What a milestone! My goal from the start was always to help retail from Day 0 instead of institutions.
That being said… I’ve probably helped out $IBKR too much recently with thousands of new “Serenity Accounts?
$HOOD retail DW… Working on something surprising for you all, just stay tight.
Maybe 6-8 weeks?
Regardless happy to see so much validation of my thoughts.
And I hope whatever I do sets a lasting example for X about the positive sum nature of free information democratization.

Jimmy狐狸@jimmyhuli
这一波 Serenity 带着大家买瑞典、德国、法国、韩国股票的,都跑去 $IBKR 开户了吧。 $HOOD 真心悲剧
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The comments below this post are worse than feared.
I honestly thought you knew we were in a bubble and understood what parabolic moves mean when the market is in Wave 5.
There is a 100% guarantee that all parabolic moves like on the $MU chart below will trigger a decline of at least -50%.
That is a certainty.
It can still run higher in the short term but the crash will come.
Bookmark this because I will be referencing this a lot
The Long Investor@TheLongInvest
$MU Honestly, we are in living in a time where people think this is normal And FOMO'ing that they did not chase this. This is as parabolic as you'll see and this is a $817 BILLION MARKET CAP company Yes we are in a bubble, yes they will all collapse and yes this time IT IS NOT DIFFERENT.
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Wei Bao retweetledi


$ONDS
I'll just leave this here for you as a reminder
Our Free content on X is better than any other paid service.
The Long Investor@TheLongInvest
$ONDS is coiling for its next move higher PT $19 PT $22 PT $32 Next Current level is $9
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Bullish $HIMS, this is a big opportunity to buy the dip
StockTrader_Max@StockTrader_Max
Bullish $HIMS 📈
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Wei Bao retweetledi
Wei Bao retweetledi

I forgot to talk about one of the most important parts of the $HIMS quarter:
Subscriber growth.
This is where the $NVO partnership could start changing the story fast.
$HIMS went from 2.511M subscribers in Q4 to 2.584M subscribers in Q1.
That’s around 73K net adds, or roughly +2.9% QoQ growth.
Not bad, but also not explosive.
Now compare that to what management is saying after the Wegovy launch.
$HIMS has already fulfilled 125K+ Wegovy product orders within 6 weeks, and they are now on pace to add 100K+ new subscribers per month within weight loss.
That’s the part the market might be underestimating.
Q1 subscriber growth was still impacted by the GLP-1 transition.
But the $NVO deal only came late in Q1, and Wegovy shipments started in April.
So Q2/Q3 is where we actually start seeing what the branded GLP-1 funnel can do.
The strategy is simple:
Use branded GLP-1s to bring millions of users into the $HIMS ecosystem.
Then cross-sell into hair loss, sexual health, mental health, labs, diagnostics, peptides, wearables, and AI-led personalization.
Weight loss is not just a product.
It is a customer acquisition engine.
And if that 100K+ monthly weight-loss subscriber pace holds, the entire $HIMS subscriber growth profile can start looking very different fast.
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Wei Bao retweetledi
Wei Bao retweetledi

Why are they raising $HIMS when it’s going to zero?
Once off hits on EPS need to be digested for what they are
When we saw it, it was clear that it was likely a restructure
A pivot from alt GLP-1 to branded version and also a one off payment to facilitate M&A
Both cost increases helped secure $NVO and $LLY while also expanding globally (outside of the US sales increased by +969%)
Management focus on years and not quarters
And investors should too
Q2 guide increase confirms the once off hits on EPS.
No changes our thesis or price targets
Hims House@himshouse
🚨 $HIMS ANALYST UPDATES Needham raises PT to $35 (Buy rating) Canaccord raises PT to $32 (Buy rating) Citi raises PT to $28 (Hold rating)
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Wei Bao retweetledi

What the $HIMS Q1 actually tells you if you read the full report:
The headline that nobody's talking about:
1) International revenue: $7.3M → $78.2M. That's +969% YoY in one quarter.
2) Subscribers: 2.58M (+9% YoY). Still growing.
3) Free cash flow: +$53M. Cash positive from operations.
Why US revenue fell 8% ($578M → $530M):
The FDA removed semaglutide from the shortage list. HIMS had built a massive business around compounded GLP-1 weight loss products. Regulatory pressure forced a pivot to branded medications. They chose to absorb the pain now rather than fight the FDA.
That decision created a $33.5M one-time restructuring charge (inventory write-downs) and temporarily disrupted US revenue. The business didn't break. They deliberately disrupted themselves.
The -$92M net loss in context:
4) $36.9M stock-based comp (non-cash)
5) $33.5M GLP-1 pivot restructuring (one-time)
6) $22.0M depreciation & amortization
7) $15.0M legal settlement (one-time)
That's ~$107M in non-cash or one-time items on a -$92M loss.
The actual cash business generated +$53M in free cash flow.
And then they raised full year guidance anyway.
$2.8–3.0B for 2026. 2030 target: $6.5B revenue, $1.3B Adj. EBITDA.


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