Bargain Ticker

2.3x EV/FCF for a digitally inflecting deep-value security group with recurring cybersecurity growth and substantial underlying real-property value: - Cost optimized - Billionaire shareholder - Unique cross-selling opportunity My first Substack writeup: bargainticker.substack.com/p/2x-evfcf-unc…

-WindowMaster, specialised in indoor ventilation solutions, 2026 forecast is DKK 45-55m EBITDA and DKK 290-310m revenue, representing a midpoint forecast of DKK 32m EBIT, which corresponds to less than 4x EBIT

The best ideas are so simple they can be condensed on a napkin over a cup of coffee.

Update on $HUM.AX: The Australian Takeovers Panel (the takeover referee) is now involved and recent developments have been positive, but having the EGM delayed twice (!) is frustrating. * First EGM (Feb -> March) was postponed after the Panel intervened. * The Panel forced Humm to engage with CCP through an independent committee, excluding AA from handling the proposal (good!) * CCP DD is now real: NDA/data room process is live, so there is now a credible path to a proper bid process * The Panel is still reviewing the remaining issues, including the Dec disclosure / share purchases / process questions. * Proxy advicers now side the activists (good!). This still matters because even though the voter base is fixed, they can still adjust their votes

@david_katunaric What do you get out of the following wording, David? “One recently-acquired customer in our ATS operations is our single largest customer” How did they “win” their Hong Kong customer?

Before someone reads “customer concentration from 🇨🇳” and immediately clicks sell, I think a few things are worth considering: 1/ What percentage of the company’s total revenue that concentration actually represents 2/ What kind of growth the AdTech segment and Smadex would have posted this year/quarter if $EVC hadn’t added that major customer 3/ Whether the market is actually pricing in high growth at the current valuation 4/ Where Smadex is headquartered, whether it sells a product or a service (or even whether the customer is actually Chinese or Hong Kong–based) 5/ What landing one large customer (the first of this profile for the AdTech segment) typically implies about the chances of landing another somewhere down the line It’s definitely not SaaS, but I also don’t think “not sticky” is a valid concern. Once a programmatic DSP onboards a client and establishes the relationship, the spend should be fairly recurring. Unless Smadex gets outcompeted on ROAS over time or customers stop valuing high level of support they currently receive. (which is another thing to consider) I don’t want to make an example out of @MallardResearch, but I’ve seen too many investors overblow this concern and miss the big picture not to comment on it.

In the first three months of the fiscal year ending October 31, 2026, net sales for Tobila’s solutions business increased 63.2% year on year to 293,189 thousand yen.

Forgot how long it takes to accumulate a decent position in an illiquid nano-cap, but worth it at sub 3 times earnings while growing.

@Kreuzmann13 I subscribe to oddlotarbitrage.com. He usually finds the good ones like recent Tile Shop Holdings.

I am keen to learn about odd-lot tenders. What is the best way to monitorate those? EDGAR SEC?

Fantastic qualitative writeup on Tobila and how it is not affected by AI or iOS call screening, which are common misconceptions. And also more detail on why their Solutions business is growing rapidly and set to continue HUGE FCF growth now and in near future Still stupidly cheap IMO Earnings call tomorrow $4441 Not investment advice

Very good point! Size up whenever they come by!

$EVC insane results from Smadex, ATS revenue up 123%. Gate City now owns 13.6% of EVC… Fingers crossed for a sale or a spinoff 🤞

@FriendlyCapMgmt Not impressed, I must say. Especially regarding cyber segment lying flat, because mgmt said H2 often would be better… which is wasn’t.

@bargainticker Disastrous earnings release... Wouldn't you agree?

2.3x EV/FCF for a digitally inflecting deep-value security group with recurring cybersecurity growth and substantial underlying real-property value: - Cost optimized - Billionaire shareholder - Unique cross-selling opportunity My first Substack writeup: bargainticker.substack.com/p/2x-evfcf-unc…

@Jam_invest You must have an superior WACC 🤓

@bargainticker Nonsense. Payout 50% of earnings on that 3x P/E stock…and it’s just wonderful.

The market can ignore “cheap” forever, if no catalyst in place. A stock at 3x P/E with no growth in EPS is just statistically cheap - not fundamentally compelling. But 5x P/E with 30% EPS growth? That gets hard for the market to ignore with time. After 2 years, the “expensive” grower will be cheaper than the 3x no-growth stock - because earnings did the heavy lifting. Buy misunderstood quality with a catalyst. Not left-for-dead stagnation. Growth + time forces recognition. At least a preferred and targeted ideal.

Investing is ultimately about making decisions under uncertainty, because the future can never be predicted with certainty. The only way to gain an advantage is to carefully evaluate the available facts and be clear about what you truly understand - and what you don’t. That clarity is where your probabilistic edge comes from.

@SimeonResearch_ 🙏😅

@bargainticker My pleasure, I know which one you will like most 😉

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Link: open.substack.com/pub/bargaintic…

You literally get paid 3 million by owning this decent, profitable operating business growing steady. Refocused, strategic reviewing operations with potential more divestitures to come. Too cheap!

When they say cigar-butt investing only gives you one last puff… make sure it’s a BIG one.